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For those thinking the UK and EU can negotiate a trade deal in 11 months, my question is what either side wants from such a deal. In other words, never mind the feasibility, but what's the point of a quick deal, bearing in mind the limitations of basic FTAs?
In theory correct, but in practice up to what EU Member States want from a UK trade deal. Usual top priority, Geographical Indications, already in WA. Tariff free access to UK may be of limited value if EU farmers feel they can't compete with US. Detail...
Always ask what the other side wants in a trade deal.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Some of the Brexit trade commentary getting a bit confusing I gather, so to try to simplify, the big picture of some of the choices the UK faces...
1/ Which is the most important to the UK, a trade deal with the US or one with the EU?

By some distance the most fundamental question. Politics (US deal) v economics (EU deal). Both want UK alignment of some sort on regulations.
2/ What is the UK prepared to concede? This could include import of US food, EU access to UK fishing waters, preferential EU access to UK labour market.

Minimum labour and environment provisions are a given for both EU and US trade deals.
Read 7 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Same old nonsense.

Questions to ask.

1. What do the EU want, in detail, from a trade deal?
2. What does the UK want, in detail, from a trade deal?
3. How to balance 1 and 2 to reach common ground?

We don't know 1 and 2. And there's £648 billion of trade riding on it.
But a real wake up call, again, to business. There is a real risk that their no-deal plans will be needed next December. And if they want to explain the detail of what they need to see in an EU trade deal to government they don't have long to do so.
Worth a reminder at this point that trade deals are supposed to be about what makes it easier for businesses to trade with each other, not vanity projects for politicians. Though to be fair there is often a lot of the latter.
Read 12 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
If you thought the campaign was over...

Alternate headline - "Johnson guarantees business uncertainty in 2020"
As Jon says (and also as I wrote immediately after the election)

Makes it hard for the country to move on if the government is obsessed with continually winning the battle they have now won

Worst thing, one suspects many in government will be happy that so many of us are criticising enshrining end 2020 for trade deal or not. Independent voices are not to be encouraged, only experts who follow the line are welcome
Read 5 tweets

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Sydney Nash
@NashSGC
This concept that a #NoDealBrexit is a stepping stone to a deal must be put to bed. It is based on the misplaced notion that the #EU will be so desperate for the money that the UK owes it will come running back to the negotiating table, begging for a deal. It won’t. Here’s why.
First, for the EU, this is not about the money. Of course they don’t want a hole in their budget, but they will not sacrifice their principles regarding the integrity of the single market & the border etc just to plug that hole.
If the UK reneges on its financial obligation the EU will not be desperate to do a deal, it will swallow the cost and move on. #Brexit
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David M. Herszenhorn
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Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
"This could be mitigated by changes to the backstop itself," she wrote to @eucopresident & @JunckerEU "Proposals for a way in which the UK could choose to exit the backstop unilaterally were it ever to come into force, or for a hard time limit... 2/
on the duration of the usage of the backstop, have been raised and discussed in Parliament. We have also raised them previously in negotiations." So there are her proposals, i.e. the EU should basically just cave on backstop in face of House of Commons defeat. But but but ... 3/
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Facts Central
@StillDelvingH
Who funds the IEA, the TPA, the ASI &co?
You know, the RW 'free trade' thick tanks advocating tax havens, "freedom" (no regulations like workers' rights or environmental protection), no welfare (no tax & no free healthcare).
Basically, "Only the wealthier survive" philosophy?
1/n
*Could it be* that it has something to do with defending their funders' interests?
Today, I'm going to tell you the Thick Tanks' Hydra tale.
Featuring Atlas, huge piles of money, tradition, "free speech", useful idiots and a very clear agenda that Brexit/Trump are a part of.
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Air boxing by top #UK officials is amazing. Who punching at? Unlike in London, #Brexit never been much fight in Brussels, more lament. When some urged penalty in financial settlement, EU ignored & just tabbed up #'s. Citizen rights a 2-way street. Other stuff mainly logistical..
Point again is not to take any side, but merely point out Brussels has had consistent principles, goals & negotiating positions from the start. London still has no consensus on final objective. No one I know in #EU has advocated for "no deal" but some in #UK actually do that...
Have had many many long conversations w/ top London colleagues. Am very conscious of all arguments & concerns on #UK side, incl over Northern Ireland. But even in no deal scenario, #UK will end up facing exact same choice on future relationship w/ EU as now, but w/o transition...
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Steve Herman
@W7VOA
#UK Foreign Secretary @BorisJohnson has resigned, according to @10DowningStreet.
"His replacement will be announced shortly," @10DowningStreet spokesman says.
More on the @BorisJohnson resignation:
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Julie Laumann 🌎
@Otpor17
"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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