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This concept that a #NoDealBrexit is a stepping stone to a deal must be put to bed. It is based on the misplaced notion that the #EU will be so desperate for the money that the UK owes it will come running back to the negotiating table, begging for a deal. It won’t. Here’s why.
First, for the EU, this is not about the money. Of course they don’t want a hole in their budget, but they will not sacrifice their principles regarding the integrity of the single market & the border etc just to plug that hole.
If the UK reneges on its financial obligation the EU will not be desperate to do a deal, it will swallow the cost and move on. #Brexit
Second, the EU knows (just like any rational observer), that no-deal will hurt the UK much more than it hurts the EU. Each passing day of no-deal leaves the UK in a weaker position when it desperately wants to restart the negotiations and the EU knows this.
Third, if the UK leaves without a deal all the promises the EU has made to work quickly and use “best endeavours” evaporate and they will focus on other bigger priorities - Trump, China, Russia. Brexiteers think the UK will be first in the queue. It won’t be.
In addition to all this, its worth considering what happens once negotiations do begin again. On this point, leadership hopefuls really need to listen to what is being said in Brussels. There, the sequence is already well understood and it will go like this...
1. UK requests resumption of negotiations;
2. EU says “pay the money you owe. No money, no negotiation”;
3. UK says okay (eventually);
4. EU says “sign up to the backstop. No backstop, no negotiation”;
5. UK says okay (eventually)...
2. EU says “pay the money you owe. No money, no negotiation”;
3. UK says okay (eventually);
4. EU says “sign up to the backstop. No backstop, no negotiation”;
5. UK says okay (eventually)...
6. EU says “reciprocate on our unilateral no-deal measures”;
7. UK says okay;
8. EU says “okay, now let’s negotiate a trade deal”...
7. UK says okay;
8. EU says “okay, now let’s negotiate a trade deal”...
9. EU says “PS. We’re now doing this under Art. 218, not Art. 50, with all the political & ratification challenges that that will present for us. So settle in, this is going to take a while (& deepen your knowledge of regional parls. in Belgium, ‘cause you’re going to need it)”.
About ten years after this, we may have a deal with the EU, but no sooner.
Nothing accelerates because of no-deal, except the damage that will be done to the UK economy. All leadership contenders need to understand this. #Brexit
