Thread by @Breedlove22

1/12.Price predictions are unpopular, dangerous, and almost always incorrect. That said, the following price predictions are my educated guesses about the future of Bitcoin’s exchange ratio against USD; it is not investment advice.

Let’s do this⏬

2.Following its late-2013 price peak of $1,184, Bitcoin suffered a drawdown of 85% to $166 by January 2015. Later, in July 2015, Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average (MA) price broke above its 200-day MA, signaling the transition into its next bull cycle.

3.Around this cycle transition point, a parabolic price advance carried Bitcoin upward at an average of 19% per week for 11 weeks from a low of $161 to $504 for a total price advance of 213%.

4.Although the 50 and 200-day MA’s oscillated a bit during the bear to bull cycle transition, once the 50-day MA firmly established itself above the 200-day MA, it remained there right through Bitcoin’s most recent price peak in December 2017.

5.Following its latest $19,290 price peak, Bitcoin once again suffered a massive drawdown, this time 83% to its December 2018 low price of $3,231.

6.In April 2019, we once again saw the Bitcoin 50-day MA cross above its 200-day MA, which (apparently) signaled the transition into its current bull cycle.

7.Around this most recent cycle transition point, a parabolic price advance carried Bitcoin upward at an average of 12% per week for 27 weeks from a low of $3,231 to $13,788 for a total price advance of 327%.

8.Together these movements indicate that this market cycle is shaping up to be more elongated and of a higher magnitude than its last one. Contextualized against the prevailing macroeconomic backdrop (QE, NIRP, etc.), it appears the world may be entering a Bitcoin super-cycle.

9.Another strong leading indicator of this imminent super-cycle was the late October 2019 single-day Bitcoin price advance of 41%, from $7,429 to $10,457; this marked the greatest single-day percentage price advance for Bitcoin since 2011.

10.Based on this evidence, Bitcoin’s scarcity dynamics, and the “perfect storm” central banks around the world are brewing for provably scarce assets with their relentlessly expansionary monetary policies, I am making the following Bitcoin price predictions:

10a.

By the May 2020 halving - $14K USD per Bitcoin

By December 2020 - $20K USD per Bitcoin

By December 2023 - $240K USD per Bitcoin

11.At $240K per Bitcoin, its monetary network will be valued at almost half of gold’s market capitalization of $9T (a highly suppressed figure, see Gata.org), making its existence terrifying for central bankers and their nation-state nannies.

12.Time alone is the ultimate judge of all things, so we will see how these predictions hold up in due course. Until then, I’ll patiently await my reminder:

@remindmetweets remind me in 4 years