, 20 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter
1/ Thread about altcoins vs. #Bitcoin

I don’t believe Ethereum will ever trade above its current all time high vs. Bitcoin (0.15).

You can substitute any altcoin for Ethereum and I believe this will still be true.
2/ This doesn’t mean alts are dead or that they will never pump again from the current levels. If you buy and sell at the right times you can still make great returns. I just think the 2017 market was an anomaly.
3/ When we look at what happened in 2017 to cause the alt explosion it was a perfect storm of events…
4/ For one, the ICO market was just heating up. Everyone wanted to make a quick buck while money was being thrown around recklessly. Most ICO tokens were issued on top of ETH.

5/ The Bitcoin scaling debate was coming to a head and there was some uncertainty in the market about the future of Bitcoin.

6/ There were a lot of prominent people who bet big on Ethereum. In May of 2017 @fredwilson claimed that the ETH market cap would surpass BTC that year.

7/ Fast forward to 2019 and a lot has changed.

- Regulators have come down hard on ICOs.
- Bitcoin has survived the scaling attack
- BTC dominance has increased to 66% from the low of 35%

ETH is currently a distant second in market cap.
8/ Bitcoin skeptics will continue to express criticisms that the network is slow, it is expensive to use, it can’t scale, it is bad for the environment, etc. I could do a separate thread about each of those topics.
9/ It’s easy to look at ETH and think it should pass BTC. It’s faster and cheaper to use. It can be natively programmed to use smart contracts or issue tokens in addition to value transfer. Eventually it may support proof of stake which will reduce the environmental footprint.
10/ On paper Ethereum LOOKS like the clear winner. The problem is most people are approaching it incorrectly.

Many people see it as a technology problem.

“Bitcoin is the MySpace of the crypto world. There is no way it will stay on top forever.”
11/ The correct way to think about it is in terms of monetary policy. Which is a better form of money?

Bitcoin is designed to have a hard cap of 21 million tokens. Ethereum issuance will continue forever (barring a change in the protocol).
12/ This is an important distinction. As of today, Bitcoin is pretty much the only crypto with a clear value proposition. It is a store of value like gold. People who say that Bitcoin can’t succeed unless people spend it fail to understand this point.
13/ Bitcoin is simply the easiest and best way to store value. You don’t need any vaults or safes. You don’t have to rely on a bank or other intermediary. It’s easy to take with you and send to other people. It’s liquid and easy to convert to other currencies (if you need to).
14/ When you approach Bitcoin from this mindset, it’s easy to see why alts are losing market share. People are finally starting to see that “Bitcoin not blockchain” is the correct way to think about the market.
15/ Despite what some people may say, gold does not have value because it is a pretty metal or because it has industrial uses or can be used for jewelry. It has value because there is a limited supply.

16/ People may scoff at some of the very high price targets for Bitcoin from people like @officialmcafee, @MarkYusko, @APompliano, @TimDraper, @fundstrat, or @maxkeiser, but they are not really too farfetched at all.
17/ Imagine that someday Bitcoin has 25% the market share of gold or a $2 trillion market cap. With today’s supply that would put the price of Bitcoin at over $100,000 per coin.
18/ If Bitcoin reaches those levels and the Ethereum ratio were to reach 0.15 again that would put the price of Ethereum at $15,000 and the market cap at $1.65 trillion. Has Ethereum done anything to warrant that valuation? I don’t believe so.
19/ I do believe that other cryptos will have use cases outside of a store of value, but unless something crazy happens, I think Bitcoin will remain the king.
20/ I recommend reading the book “The Bitcoin Standard” by @saifedean for anyone looking to learn more about Bitcoin in the context of money.

@pierre_rochard @real_vijay @_ConnerBrown_ @CaitlinLong_ @jimmysong @WhalePanda

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