THREAD: In 2014, @Wikistrat made headlines for 2 correct Ukraine forecasts "beating the CIA."
More correct Wikistrat analysis afterwards included Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.
Hit piece after hit piece followed with accusations of murder the latest /1
More correct Wikistrat analysis afterwards included Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.
Hit piece after hit piece followed with accusations of murder the latest /1
@Wikistrat In January 2014 @Wikistrat analysts forecasted the potential for the Ukrainian president to resign (which he did a month later) and for Russia to annex Crimea (which it did 2 months later), beating the U.S. intelligence community thedailybeast.com/us-spies-said-… /2
@Wikistrat In fact, @Wikistrat had *many* simulations, discussion threads, and wargames analyzing how social media turbocharges Soviet "reflexive control," enabling the RU to corrupt democracy, including the 2016 U.S. presidential election /3
@Wikistrat .@forensicnewsnet just released yet another @Wikistrat hit piece: a gish gallop podcast (with murder top smear) complete with a Wikileaks style "whistleblower," a DARVO defense, and baiting on Twitter to further confuse and smear /4
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet Gish gallop means throwing as many arguments as possible--with no regard to their strength--to overwhelm your opponent trying to debunk them.
DARVO stands for "Deny, Attack & Reverse Victim + Offender."
@forensicnewsnet smear included these elements /5
DARVO stands for "Deny, Attack & Reverse Victim + Offender."
@forensicnewsnet smear included these elements /5
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet Online baiting included several demands I fact check ton of false/misleading claims (only initially responded out of respect for @propornot who has RTed @ScottMStedman who seems green). But no point rebutting each--that just amplifies propaganda further /6
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman .@Wikistrat almost shuttered after Trump took office (coincidentally or not) when flood of hit pieces began. Wikistrat's former CEO Joel Zamel, who also owned Psy Group, a PR firm with expertise in extremism, was accused of illegally helping elect Trump /7
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman A few analysts worked for Psy Group and @Wikistrat (not me) contributing to analysis on RU use of hate, including antisemitism, to elect Trump. As a whole RU interference in elections/democracy came up a lot but correct forecasts yet again fueled smears /8
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman Since Wikistrat analysis covered use of antisemitism to elect Trump and firm almost collapsed after he took office, smears around Psy Group illegally helping elect Trump never made sense to me. Wouldn't Trump admin reward both firms with big contracts? /9
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman Certainly, Rick Gates and George Nader among others cooperating with Mueller to investigate Zamel and Psy Group troubling? But Zamel and Psy Group didn't end up in Mueller report (realize still possible in redaction). Search at justice.gov/storage/report… /10
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman Exposés about Wikistrat being secretly an Israeli firm seem antisemitic to me. Leadership doesn't hide Israeli nationality nor where based. Multinational firms having a U.S. office/subsidiary to secure U.S. federal government contracts common practice /11
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman Much has been researched/written on RU efforts to destabilize and confuse governments and societies, including U.S., Europe, and notably Ukraine:
ecfr.eu/publications/s…
politico.com/magazine/story…
washingtonpost.com/opinions/first…
nytimes.com/2015/06/07/mag…
/12
ecfr.eu/publications/s…
politico.com/magazine/story…
washingtonpost.com/opinions/first…
nytimes.com/2015/06/07/mag…
/12
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman Purpose of RU active measures is to destroy the social trust needed for democracies to function. “In-groups” and “out-groups” are all a part of this to leverage/sow hate to divide, create chaos and make truth unknowable so citizens stop participating /13
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman RU intelligence community and global organized crime ring are in many cases one and same. Oligarchy and kleptocracy are their end game with democracy, rule of law, and human rights destroyed. Possible RU @GOP infiltration is a huge threat to democracy /14
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP Citizens need to believe their government tells them the truth; citizen oversight works/good use of time; and people from various socio-economic, ethnic, geographic, or religious groups can work together to identify best solutions for the common good /15
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP .@Wikistrat strength is bringing analysts from diverse backgrounds together to crowdsource and identify solutions to strengthen good governance, rule of law, human rights, and military and political alliances of democratic nations at time under threat /16
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP Jewish people have direct experience in impact of erosion of trust, rule of law, and commitment to human rights nationally and regionally in recent past. So what is weird about Israelis coming up with the idea for Wikistrat and managing from Israel? /17
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP Seeing timely #Hanukkah message here (am Christian so forgive me if my theology is off) because Wikistrat's crowdsourcing model holds promise of serving as a shamash kindling democracy's light from country to country, keeping it burning, in dark times /18
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP Haters are going to hate and mock. But everyone knows a little light dispels darkness. Hanukkah candles are lit at dusk. Perched in the doorway, they serve as a beacon for darkening streets. No matter how dark it is, even the smallest candle transforms /19
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP With trust being the secret sauce for democracy in general and Wikistrat's success, it's natural those solid forecasting threatens would try to erode trust in firm by whatever means possible. Hate is hate no matter the target with light always solution /20
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP Reminder back in 2014 Wikistrat correctly forecast ethnic strife in Ukraine would lead to RU's Crimea annexation. In other words, Wikistrat saw hybrid warfare for what it was and who was aggressor using turbocharged reflexive control via social media /21
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP From the moment Trump took office, however, he reportedly told his senior aides Ukraine, not Russia, interfered in the 2016 presidential election because “Putin told me.” Certainly contradicts all Wikistrat analyses I at least was privy to at the time /22
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP Just like biggest beneficiary of Trump's Ukraine mess is Russia, turning out a big beneficiary of @Wikistrat smears Russia along with those spreading and benefiting from ridiculous Ukraine conspiracy theories (same crazy as pizzagate conspiracy theory) /23
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP So with Wikistrat gaining business in 2019 as Trump's Ukraine mess spirals into impeachment, what to do? Derail firm's Ukraine forecasting from being taken seriously? Further destroy trust in firm and accuse former CEO of helping kill famous analyst? /24
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP Why not destroy trust firm needs to succeed where close to Israeli leadership's heart: Middle East? Since it appears Khashoggi wanted to keep affiliation secret for reputation reasons and his/his family’s safety, why not "out" entire Middle East desk? /25
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP Maybe outing analysts who may prefer affiliation private will scare others from participating (even if murder smear rings crazytown)? Certainly, peace builders have always had to overcome reputation concerns to get Israel's neighbors to work with them celebrating200years.noaa.gov/magazine/midea… /26
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP As a very part-time simulation supervisor in 2015-2016 one of my jobs was pinging analysts during simulations to cultivate idea exchange. Wikistrat was/is bridge helping unite diverse people in defense of democratic values as some hoped Facebook would /27
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP Having done some peacebuilding work early in career, helping create the space where diverse analysts could enjoy social trust (yes Israelis and Arabs included) to speak their truth and crowdsource forecasts felt nice. When came true, it felt even better/28
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP Don't know why @forensicnewsnet publishing crazytown conspiracy theories with RU-style smears. Great aunt of its founder/CEO/lead writer had the branding tattoo from the Holocaust. Likewise, don't know for sure @MatthewPennMSU is Wikistrat's #Curveball /29
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP @MatthewPennMSU Curveball was the main source for Colin Powell's case for invading Iraq in 2003. He was an out-of-work Iraqi who made up lies about Saddam Hussein's WMD in hopes of keeping up an extravagant informant lifestyle. His lies changed history for millions /30
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP @MatthewPennMSU This thread on 2009 story on Peter Thiel funding an ACORN "exposé" and impacts has similarities to Forensic News' big Wikistrat scoop. Only time will tell its impacts considering firm's potential as bridge/shamash lighting the way for democratic values /31
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP @MatthewPennMSU Have never worked under or with or even interacted with Joel Zamel. Have no impression of him. Do know other firm leadership, company he keeps, and how D.C. operates. Of course he should accept invitations to all meetings with administration officials/political appointees... /32
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP @MatthewPennMSU …Unless he had reason to suspect in advance he could become involved in something illegal/shady or something that could tarnish his professional reputation in a way that would make it impossible to work with Dems or GOP in the future if U.S. political winds changed direction /33
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP @MatthewPennMSU Do I think Wikistrat is nirvana with perfect management immune to human error? That also is crazytown. Clearly some mistakes were made. But as somebody who spent her career in D.C. and has worked for political appointees of both parties, understand delicate tightrope walking /34
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP @MatthewPennMSU At one point worked a few layers under James Comey when he was acting attorney general. Have worked in anti-corruption/anti-fraud and know people in D.C. who work in IC. Going with my gut/faith believe if Wikistrat any danger for me, would be warned /35
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP @MatthewPennMSU Yes, affiliation has caused me trouble. Some liberals have harassed me online believing I helped elect Trump. MAGA types have scorned me for questioning Trump policies, especially RE immigration. Open to being wrong. Just moving forward per gut/faith /36
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP @MatthewPennMSU .@Wikistrat welcomes and honors people from many faiths, including the Judaism of its largely Israeli leadership. They are celebrating #Hanukkah right now. Praying crazytown smears stop for the holiday (if not completely) and the firm can continue kindling light in dark world /37
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman @GOP @MatthewPennMSU ADDENDUM: Best part of Wikistrat is participating in online simulations, wargames, and discussions where uninformed screened out and rare aggressive or overly partisan analyst talked to/asked to leave. Paradise compared to Facebook or Twitter per a few comments on this thread🙄
@Wikistrat @forensicnewsnet @propornot @ScottMStedman To clarify, by "worked" mean in a contractor/consultant capacity, not "employee" or "staff member." Unaware of any "employee" or "staff member" working for both companies.
