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Wow- these defection numbers of millennial & Gen Zers from the Rep Party to the Dem Party between 2015 and march 2017-23%-that's pretty darn big and nearly 3Xs bigger than the flow the other way. people-press.org/2017/05/17/par…
About 80% of people socialized into a political party or ideology will stick with it. The other 20% will switch and make Thanksgivings forever awkward thereafter. BC I am one of the 20% "rejectors" I have always been fascinated in explaining why rejectors do it, bc there ARE
costs. Based on political science and psychology research, the answer is probably based on personality types and perhaps biology. I hope to do some research on this question at some point.
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭
@RachelBitecofer
Watched @chucktodd's @MeetThePress special on disinformation & the media crisis. Its clear he recognizes *some* of the issues w his show as of late. I'm glad he focused it on having on @deanbaquet & @PostBaron- the editors of The Times & The Post. I talk to audiences about the
process by which a story gets into print at these papers- the scrupulous vetting & editorial process, esp in the Trump Era, where any mistake is a disaster. And I talk about accountability- about what happens at a major outlet when something intentionally gets screwed up, like
the Rolling Stone UVA rape story. About how careers are ended. And I talk about incentives & how looking at people's incentives (combined w their constraints) are a good way at judging reliability. Journalists have incentives to get a hot story, but they have major constraints-
Read 11 tweets
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭
@RachelBitecofer
Student Evaluations of Teaching are useless at evaluating your ability to teach & are biased against women, people of color & foreign faculty. They erode instructional quality & discourage innovative pedagogy. Profs teach only to not be hurt by them. They should be banned.
here is what we "learned" about my teaching from my falls evals. Now, given that the evals never really directly ask the students if they learn anything, which I would assume would be the point of the class, this year I added in that direct question so at least I know I
accomplished that goal, and the tangential goal I also bring to my intro to Amer Gov class, which is to try to get them to be more likely to vote in the future. But again, I added these 4 questions, a practice you are discouraged against doing bc it might backfire badly.
Read 8 tweets
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭
@RachelBitecofer
I had an email exchange w @Nate_Cohn that *may* have partly inspired him to look at this. Really interesting stuff. would love to see which surveys these are to see if the more urban/suburban districts are the 1's most under-estimated.
I think every cycle is a learning opportunity for analysts. I've learned so much in the 3 cycles I've been preemptively analyzing voter behavior (though again, I did not put out anything formal other than my polling & my verbal "hot takes" about my belief about massive turnout
surge & its impacts on the demographic composition of the electorate, and what that would mean for the level of competition between Rs & Ds during Trump's tenure). But from that 1st cycle I learned the surge's capabilities had much greater potential to overcome poor campaign
Read 8 tweets

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Kyle Mann
@The_Kyle_Mann
That survey @snopes shared is horrible. Did they seriously paraphrase Bee stories and ask people if they thought they were true? That's an awful way to figure out what percentage of people will believe satire.
@snopes The specific phrasing we use is designed to be humorous, to frame things as a joke, to set things up in a dry manner and then deliver a punchline. The framing is everything.
@snopes If some survey intern called me and asked "Did this person say X" I'd say, "How the heck am I supposed to know, ya cheese bag?"
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Tenacious “T” will resist - 🧡 #TeamDems
@WillResistAdmin
Farm losses drive Iowa's flood damage to $2 billion, Farm Bureau economists estimate

And this amount was in April, they have been flooded repeatedly- #KneeHighByJuly might be three years from now... we will starve if we don’t get the #Dem takeover ASAP desmoinesregister.com/story/money/ag…
OPINION
June 2018 Iowa Farm Bureau is a suburban insurance company pretending to be the voice of farmers desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/…
Iowa Farm Bureau was created to advocate for Iowa’s farmers and rural communities, it now receives 84% of its revenue from its for-profit insurance arm, the FBL Financial Group, which controlled $10.1 billion in assets in 2017 alone
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Christian Oliveira
@christian_wilde
Until now, the only SEO space where AMP was kind of "mandatory" was on news: if you want to appear on the "Top stories" box, you kind of need to have your articles to use AMP. You can appear there withouth AMP, but you don't get the same visual benefits #AMP #SEO .
Now Google is bringing "Stories" (like Instagram Stories, Snapchat Stories, etc.) to search results. They just announced it at #ampconf (see ) #AMP #SEO
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Alison Greene
@GrassrootsSpeak
THREAD
Why is LINDSEY GRAHAM acting so strange? How has he been compromised?
People think
👉He accepted Rubles
👉He's gay but won't admit it
👉A major sex scandal
But there are two other possibilities that intrigue me.
Especially since Graham was a Trump adversary till one day...
Graham played a round of golf w/ Trump & his attitude changed
An explanation is that Russia hacked the RNC & gave Trump GOP secrets to manipulate them with
Another explanation is Christian Ferry
Ferry was Grahams campaign mgr for the 2016 Presidential Election
One could assume...
..there’s a lot of trust between a campaign manager & his candidate.
Imagine a Campaign mgr sits his candidate down before their run & says “I need to know your deepest darkest secrets so I know what may come up & what to protect you from. There should be no surprises between us”
Read 9 tweets
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Ryan Caldbeck
@ryan_caldbeck
1/ I have talked before about 1 large industry with stale incumbents that is ripe for innovation (CPG). Another is financial services – particularly private mkts. Lets focus on PE/VC. Slow moving….pretty darn big…..and wildly profitable….industry that uses almost no tech.
2/ I really like this framework from Emma to understand disruption and then applying it to PE/VC (and shoutout to @erparker).
circleupblog.com/2018/04/26/you…
3/ Incumbents in PE/VC are doubling down on most profitable activity (raising larger funds). How could they not- even if returns go down it still makes sense to go bigger – the mgmt. fees (2% guaranteed every yr on larger AuM) outweigh the decline in IRR.
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___________
@parking_seal
#Probablemente ([#EO]#probable🍀/[#EN]#Probably🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿)
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