I couldn't agree more with @GerardAraud on this point!
I sense that the 2020's will have more in common with the 1890s and 1900s than with the 1980s or 1990s
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I sense that the 2020's will have more in common with the 1890s and 1900s than with the 1980s or 1990s
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I raise this point at the end of the introduction to my new book, "Arguing About Alliances" (@CornellPress) 
I then explain how the two time periods are similar: in a word, "Multipolarity"
As then Secretary of State @JohnKerry remarked in 2013, "We live in a world more like the 18th and 19th centuries" rather than the bipolar structure of the Cold War era
theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
This isn't to ignore the notable differences b/w the late 19th century and today, as highlighted by @ulrichspeck
But I agree with @usv1980 that these differences pertain to the limits on states, rather than fundamentally altering their motivations.
For those #econtwitter followers out there, nukes & interdependence alter the constraint not the objective function.
books.google.com/books?id=yAfug…
books.google.com/books?id=yAfug…
But I should add that the world was pretty interdependent in the late 19th century and early 20th century (as discussed in this class @nberpubs paper by @B_Eichengreen et al), so maybe that really isn't a new constraint.
nber.org/papers/w7195
nber.org/papers/w7195
In sum, I agree that an excellent way to gain insight into the next decade of the 21st century is to go back to the early decade of the 20th century.
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