Thread by @ProfPaulPoast

I couldn't agree more with @GerardAraud on this point!

I sense that the 2020's will have more in common with the 1890s and 1900s than with the 1980s or 1990s

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https://twitter.com/GerardAraud/status/1211367320452567040

I raise this point at the end of the introduction to my new book, "Arguing About Alliances" (@CornellPress)

I then explain how the two time periods are similar: in a word, "Multipolarity"

As then Secretary of State @JohnKerry remarked in 2013, "We live in a world more like the 18th and 19th centuries" rather than the bipolar structure of the Cold War era

theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…

This isn't to ignore the notable differences b/w the late 19th century and today, as highlighted by @ulrichspeck

https://twitter.com/ulrichspeck/status/1211539159178993664

But I agree with @usv1980 that these differences pertain to the limits on states, rather than fundamentally altering their motivations.

https://twitter.com/usv1980/status/1211571998914228225

For those #econtwitter followers out there, nukes & interdependence alter the constraint not the objective function.

books.google.com/books?id=yAfug…

But I should add that the world was pretty interdependent in the late 19th century and early 20th century (as discussed in this class @nberpubs paper by @B_Eichengreen et al), so maybe that really isn't a new constraint.

nber.org/papers/w7195

In sum, I agree that an excellent way to gain insight into the next decade of the 21st century is to go back to the early decade of the 20th century.

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