Thread by @ProfPaulPoast

How did we end up here?

Why are 🇺🇸&🇮🇷 on the brink of major direct (not just proxy) war?

Turns out, we've been on this "brink" for awhile...since at least 2002

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If we wanted to fully contextualize 🇺🇸🇮🇷 relations, we could go all the way back to the time of the US backed Shah...

...or the 1979 Revolution...

...or US support for Suddam Hussein's Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War...

...or the related "Tanker War"

But I think we can start in January 2002.

Specifically, President George W Bush's First State of the Union speech

During that speech, Bush unveiled the phrase "Axis of Evil" to describe 🇮🇶🇮🇷&🇰🇵

Why was Iran included in the Axis? At the time, @frontlinepbs offered a useful explanation for Iran's inclusion in the Axis of Evil

pbs.org/wgbh/pages/fro…

While some issues were long standing (support to Hezbollah & pursuit of a nuke program with Russian help), Iran was also viewed as undermining US efforts in parts of Afghanistan (as reported by @suzyji in @guardian)

theguardian.com/world/2002/jan…

So if Iran was such an immediate problem, why did the Axis of Evil speech lead to the US invading Iraq, not Iran?

It's useful to consider what Bush himself claimed to have thought.

For that, I turn to his memoir (acknowledging all limits of relying on the "post-hoc" reasoning found in memoirs)

google.com/books/edition/…

By mid-August of 2002, it was confirmed to Bush that Iran had a nuclear program (as Bush describes, page 415, of his memoir)

But it appears that Bush found the "budding freedom movement" in Iran encouraging

Also, it's very likely that Iraq was viewed as the "easier" target. Here is Bush describing what Colin Powell said to him about invading Iraq

Indeed, overthrowing the "easy target" of Saddam could serve as an example that might motivate "productive actions" by Iran.

Iraq as an example is consistent with the explanation offered by @ahsanib (in a recent @SecStudies_Jrnl piece).

tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…

Bush appears to admit the "Iraq as an example" was a goal of the invasion (page 267 before describing Qaddafi of Libya giving up his nuke program)

As for Iraq serving as an example for Iran, Bush writes:

Things changed for Bush when @Ahmadinejad1956 became Iran's president.

In particular, Bush was concerned about Iran restarting uranium enrichment

Bush considered several options to respond, including military force
theguardian.com/world/2010/nov…

The other options were negotiations or sanctions. Even Bush acknowledged that this was a "major decision point" (hence, the title of his memoir).

Ultimately, Bush decided to work with the Europeans and Russia on a sanctions system that could prompt negotiations

Those sanctions went into place and were continued by the Obama administration

congress.gov/bill/111th-con…

This set the stage for the start of the Joint Plan of Action interim agreement in 2013 (which eventually led to the 2015 Iran deal)

armscontrol.org/Implementation…

So US policy since 2002 has been focused on neutralizing Iran.

US tried invading Iraq to "set an example", imposing sanctions to "induce compliance", & signing an agreement to "tie Iran down".

Each time, the "military option" was not used...but was always "on the table"

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