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What are the possible consequences of the UK continuing to defy the UN on Chagos? (Short thread) theguardian.com/world/2020/jan…
The UK might have a harder time in votes. This includes elected offices previously taken for granted (like the - already lost - judge in the ICJ). It’ll be more difficult to rally countries to the UK’s side for initiatives. What will not happen?
The UK will not lose its permanent seat in the Security Council. It holds this seat under Art. 23 UN Charter. Everyone agrees the system is hopelessly outdated - the P5 are the UK, France, the US, China and Russia (where’s India, Africa, Latin America?) - but reform is unlikely.
And when I say unlikely read “for all intents and purposes will not happen”.
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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
My second thread on @vonderleyen ‘s speech concerns a question that came from @Embamexru if I am not mistaken, and I fear the short answers by the President and @MichelBarnier did not do justice to the question, so let me attempt a full answer (thread)
@vonderleyen @Embamexru @MichelBarnier The question concerned the EU’s treaties with third countries (@MichelBarnier gave a number of 600, including exchange of notes etc. the number turns out to be higher), the UK’s capacity to negotiate replacements and notice by the EU to partner countries /2
@vonderleyen @Embamexru @MichelBarnier The question combined a number of issues that deserve separate treatment. First up: the UK’s capacity to negotiate replacement treaties with third countries. The question here is: can the UK legally negotiate replacement treaties with third countries /3
Read 16 tweets
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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
Two comments - in two separate threads - on @vonderleyen ‘s LSE speech today. The first on terminology: Zero tariffs, zero quotas, zero dumping is a nifty shorthand for what we all want (ztzq) along with level playing field: zero dumping /1
@vonderleyen The framing connects these issues (as indeed, experts have pointed out for a while). LPF will include environment, labour & social as well as taxes - if you want, environmental dumping, social dumping, tax dumping. /2
@vonderleyen Some of these are common (references to international standards in FTAs), some less so but not problematic, tax is likely to be the most difficult area /3.
Read 4 tweets
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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
Two thoughts on POTUS threatening to commit war crimes on twitter and then defending his comments to the press (short thread) theguardian.com/world/2020/jan…
1) There was no benefit to making this specific threat. None. There is, however, a strategic downside: getting full support for your policy has become next to impossible. Lesson: conducting foreign policy on twitter outside regular channels continues to be a terrible idea.
2) The reason Trump has given will appeal to his nationalist supporters. Who really don’t care very much about such “subtleties” as allies, law or war crimes. Nationalism unchained.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Benjamin Nussberger
@bknussberger
THREAD: Reactions by International Community to #Iranian Strikes on #US airbases in #Iraq /1

theguardian.com/world/2020/jan…

(Do add in the comments)
2- #Iran

2- #USA

Read 33 tweets
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GreatGameIndia
@GreatGameIndia
#Thread
#populationcontrollaw is actually #Agenda21 which is British policy to reduce population of former colonies like India through various sterilization & other policies peddled through United Nations and popularised by Hollywood to effectively keep nations under their orbit.
In 1974 US National Security Council under Henry Kissinger completed classified 200-page study “National Security Study Memorandum 200: Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for US Security & Overseas Interests” advocating #populationcontrollaw for nations like India.
NSSM200 claimed that population growth in so-called Lesser Developed Countries (LDCs) like India was grave threat to US National Security & outlined covert plan to reduce population growth in nations like India through birth control & implicitly war & famine #populationcontrollaw
Read 23 tweets
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POPpolitics
@POPpoliticsAus
1. With the AEC finally confirming registration of Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party, here’s a #thread on far-right parties in Australia ahead of the federal election #auspol.
2. First, a definition. The most common (but not only) interpretation of ‘far right’ comes from @CasMudde, who distinguishes the far right on the basis of an ideological core of nativism in what is still my favourite book (pictured) on the far right.
3. Mudde describes nativism as: “An ideology, which holds that states should be inhabited exclusively by members of the native group (‘the nation’) and that non-native elements (persons and ideas) are fundamentally threatening to the homogenous nation-state” (2007: 19).
Read 41 tweets
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Cas Mudde 🗣️
@CasMudde
More excellent original research by @Guardian and @TeamPopulism , this time on consequences of populist rule. A few quick thoughts. #thread theguardian.com/world/2019/mar…
1. I wonder how specific the historical, political context is in which this research takes place. It is the height of neoliberalism, where there is almost a perfect opposition between neoliberalism and populism (some exceptions, like Lula).
2. While effects are not solely related to left populists in Latin America, they are the key driver. At same time, left non-populists in Latin America, like Lula, who also significantly reduced inequality, are minority of non-neoliberal non-populists.
Read 11 tweets
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193,990 Brexit Job Losses 🇬🇧
@MrHickmott
It's not just Rolls Royce... Here's what we can conclude (short #thread):

theguardian.com/business/2018/…
1. Although no manufacturing jobs are being moved, the EU's aviation body will take the place of the CAA. Clearly this is a work transfer.

2. UK aviation companies are showing they lack confidence in the UK government to provide safeguards.

...
3. There is turbulence ahead as aerospace manufacturers weigh where to invest. They operate closely integrated supply chains, so expect them to move as one body.

4. Much depends what Rolls, Bombardier and Airbus do. They will take tens of thousands of jobs with them if they go.
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