1/ Let's talk about Tesla. In 2017, we called it the "ultimate Trump trade." To the extent that Trump’s economic nationalism prioritizes the creation of US jobs and valuable, domestic high-tech manufacturing industries, we argued $TSLA stands at the epicenter of that.
2/ "Tesla is the quintessential American brand and Elon Musk embodies the cult of personality that investors are attracted to in the final stages of the bull market. The $TSLAQ Bears Club will only grow more frustrated despite their (arguably rational) arguments."
3/ Tesla was occasionally the biggest short in the US stock market, with short positions greater than 30% of the total stock available for trading (it is currently 20%). The bear case was well known and yet the stock crept higher. Shorts kept piling on. institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1b00y…
4/ Market tops occur when all the buying has been exhausted, and there is no one left to buy. In the case of $TSLA, we wondered, what if all the selling has been done? What will drive Tesla’s share price lower? When a stock fails to fall on bearish news that's bullish.
5/ In May 2018, we said: “While there are plenty of well-reasoned rationales for going short Tesla, we believe this is not an asymmetric bet, especially given the exceptionally high short interest. We suspect a short squeeze will come before a financial squeeze sets in.” 
6/ We viewed Tesla as a “public unicorn,” as its business model would not work without customers and investors financing its operations. Since going public in 2010, Musk has raised fresh funds via stock or convertible-bond offerings every year except 2018—more than $12 billion.
7/ Since 2008, 80% of Tesla's cash flow from operations have come from customer deposits. Musk has pledged about 40% of his stake in Tesla and even reportedly mortgaged five of his California homes to raise liquidity and also looked to borrow against his SpaceX shares.
8/ Faith is believing before what will only make sense after. Tesla’s shares are up 160% in the past six months to an all-time high on better-than-expected Q4 delivery numbers and its factory opening in China. Short positions on $TSLA have lost over $10 billion.
9/ We quipped the time to sell $TSLA would come when @elonmusk is crowned as Time “Person of the Year.” That didn’t happen. But subscribers of @theinformation just declared Elon Musk the “Tech Founder of The Decade." Time to short? theinformation.com/articles/elon-…
10/ Elon Musk is lauded for transforming the auto industry, pushing the frontiers of space exploration and expanding the impact of solar power. He is a true visionary and @chamath called him the "Edison of our generation."
11/ In April 2019, Musk said: "It’s financially insane to buy anything other than a Tesla. It’ll be like owning a horse in three years. I mean, fine if you want to own a horse, but you should go into it with that expectation.”
12/ Musk said Tesla will have a million robo-taxis on the road in 2020 that operate sort of like the Uber and Airbnb model. He also said that autonomous driving will swell Tesla's market cap to $500 billion.
13/ In September Musk unveiled his space company’s newly assembled Starship, outlining a speedy development plan for the centerpiece vehicle of SpaceX’s quest for interplanetary travel: “This is basically the holy grail of space.”
14/ Now our thinking is this: "WeWork’s spectacular collapse has busted the genius tech founder mythology. If investors start to see founders as mere mortals and not superhumans, the company most at risk is Tesla."
15/ This is because what will in fact be revealed is that Tesla is a loss-making company in a cyclical business loaded with debt, with questionable accounting, executive turnover, and run by a CEO with increasingly erratic behavior. Oops.
16/ We are big fans of Elon Musk and wish that he succeeds. But we also agree with Jim Chanos, who said, Tesla is “a poster child for the hopes and dreams of this bull market.” The reckoning is coming.
