1) H/t to @Inquisitor1124 for pointing this out.
This is 538 modeling out the predicted Dem primaries delegate counts. I'm going to admit, they probably have more data than I do, especially at the state level; @RealClearNews has SOME of the states, mostly early and super tuesday
This is 538 modeling out the predicted Dem primaries delegate counts. I'm going to admit, they probably have more data than I do, especially at the state level; @RealClearNews has SOME of the states, mostly early and super tuesday
@Inquisitor1124 @RealClearNews 2) Here's my thread which I analyzed using real clear politics aggregated polls.
@Inquisitor1124 @RealClearNews 3) The main difference between my projections and 538's projections are that they give Buttigieg far more delegates overall than I do, which eats into Warren's totals in their model. I too have Warren 3rd, but FAR closer to Bernie than 538 does.
@Inquisitor1124 @RealClearNews 4) HOWEVER, the gaps we have between Bernie and Biden are similar, Biden with an extra 50% of delegates over Bernie.
So far, so good. If my model was extrapolated out, I imagine that my total would have landed similar to 538's; I just simply do not think Buttigieg gets as many.
So far, so good. If my model was extrapolated out, I imagine that my total would have landed similar to 538's; I just simply do not think Buttigieg gets as many.
@Inquisitor1124 @RealClearNews 5) This is where it gets fun.
To appease the Bernie Bros, who were bitching uselessly over superdelegates, the rules got changed.
If Biden only gets 1.5k delegates, while he has a plurality, that's not enough for him to win the primary.
Then its CONTESTED.
To appease the Bernie Bros, who were bitching uselessly over superdelegates, the rules got changed.
If Biden only gets 1.5k delegates, while he has a plurality, that's not enough for him to win the primary.
Then its CONTESTED.
@Inquisitor1124 @RealClearNews 6) In a contested primary, everything will go to shit. It will turn into a fucking free for all. Just watch; these assholes have been playing nice with each other for awhile now, but their fanbases are extremely fractured and factionalized.
@Inquisitor1124 @RealClearNews 7) In fact, that may be why some of the candidates are going to stick in there until the convention, BECAUSE it will be a contested primary. If the Yangbots and thirsty Tulsi fans do, when their candidate gets hosed they're going to raise absolute hell.
And it will be GLORIOUS.
And it will be GLORIOUS.
@Inquisitor1124 @RealClearNews The magic number to avoid this is 1886 delegates. If Biden can meet that threshold, he wins without a contested primary. If he doesn't, shitstorm.
I for one believe and am hoping for a shitstorm.
/end
I for one believe and am hoping for a shitstorm.
/end
