Thread by @HNIJohnMiller

1) The fighting begins, but between the wrong people. Warren and Bernie BOTH need to be attacking Biden. But they’re not, which means they’re jockeying for 2nd place.

https://twitter.com/TheLastRefuge2/status/1216836101014466560

2) My jury rigged rcp aggregate-based model puts Warren and Bernie as tied, with Buttigieg trailing far enough behind to be irrelevant in the delegates count. Two early states does not a primary winner make, when he’s sub-15% in EVERY OTHER STATE.

3) Remember, each state has 2 types of delegates. District delegates and state delegates. State delegates are divided and awarded based on raw percentages for any candidates ABOVE 15%. Districts are similar to congressional, winner takes all.

4) However, Biden can’t win outright without 1864 (iirc) delegates.

538 and my own projections put him at around 1500, which means a contested convention, which means the DNC will be a SHITSHOW.

5) I ASSUME Bernie and Warren are each trying to jockey to get as many delegates as they can for second place to make a serious try to usurp Biden.

The harder they fight, the better it will go for Trump, who has spent 4 years making the primaries unanimous for himself.

6) While the DNC falls to (literally) sectarian violence, Trump will walk backwards into a sweeping victory having spent the entire primary season making fun of the Dems.

He doesn’t care which of the three win the Dem primary; they’ll be so bloody when its over he’ll have won.

7) Strategery, ladies and gentlemen, strategery.

The goal isn’t to win the presidency.

The goal is to get the opposing party to tear itself to fucking shreds so that you don’t have competition in the first place.

/end