$TSLA Q419 Earnings Estimates:
1) Revenue $7,325m (+$1,022m QoQ, +$100m YoY):
1) Revenue $7,325m (+$1,022m QoQ, +$100m YoY):
2) Gross Profit $1,430m, Opex $970m, Net Income $269m (+$58m YoY, +$118m QoQ), GAAP diluted EPS $1.5, Non GAAP EPS $2.6:
3) Key Revenue & Margin Assumptions:
4) In this model I have kept Model 3 gross margins flat QoQ.
This excludes credit revenue, one off software upgrades (Acceleration boost), deferred FSD recognition and China one off ramp costs which have all been broken out separately.
This excludes credit revenue, one off software upgrades (Acceleration boost), deferred FSD recognition and China one off ramp costs which have all been broken out separately.
5) I think flat margin QoQ is likely conservative - Tesla has consistently reduced production costs QoQ & > production drives > margins (fixed cost leverage, < staff hours/car, supplier scale saving passed on).
Main risks are larger one off GF3 headwind & more +ve one offs in Q3
Main risks are larger one off GF3 headwind & more +ve one offs in Q3
6) I noted some Q4 gross margin drivers in a prior tweet:
7) A Q4 cash flow model will be following.
Correction: I meant production costs have been kept flat.
The margin change in the model is driven by pricing.
The margin change in the model is driven by pricing.
8) Cash Flow Model:
