Some thoughts on $TSLA Q1 deliveries.
1) There are both headwinds & tailwinds for deliveries for Q1 vs Q4. I think deliveries are likely to be down QoQ, but not too significantly.
Delivery headwinds in Q1:
A) Negative auto sales seasonality.
1) There are both headwinds & tailwinds for deliveries for Q1 vs Q4. I think deliveries are likely to be down QoQ, but not too significantly.
Delivery headwinds in Q1:
A) Negative auto sales seasonality.
2)
B) Holland EV tax step up & demand pull to 4Q19. Q4 Model 3 sales were 16.3k, could fall to 1-4k.
C) $1.75k US EV credit end & demand pull to Q4
D) China demand pull to Q4 (because they had expected 25% tariff increase in mid-Dec).
B) Holland EV tax step up & demand pull to 4Q19. Q4 Model 3 sales were 16.3k, could fall to 1-4k.
C) $1.75k US EV credit end & demand pull to Q4
D) China demand pull to Q4 (because they had expected 25% tariff increase in mid-Dec).
3)
E) China lower MIC SR+ pricing impacting demand for US AWD imports.
F) Less inventory to sell. 15.5k at end of Q4 from 22.5k at Q3.
E) China lower MIC SR+ pricing impacting demand for US AWD imports.
F) Less inventory to sell. 15.5k at end of Q4 from 22.5k at Q3.
4) But also several tailwinds:
A) MIC SR+ cars beginning delivery. Will be constrained by production which I think is likely to be 13k to 25k, dependent on supply chain ramp.
B) Large car fleet on the road = more word of mouth marketing
A) MIC SR+ cars beginning delivery. Will be constrained by production which I think is likely to be 13k to 25k, dependent on supply chain ramp.
B) Large car fleet on the road = more word of mouth marketing
5)
C) Likely a good backlog of orders from Q4. Many markets stopped taking orders for Q4 delivery in Nov. Given most inventory was cleared in Q4 it is difficult to map current order wait times to backlog size (production batching & shipping timing play a big role in wait times)
C) Likely a good backlog of orders from Q4. Many markets stopped taking orders for Q4 delivery in Nov. Given most inventory was cleared in Q4 it is difficult to map current order wait times to backlog size (production batching & shipping timing play a big role in wait times)
6)
D) Limited reports of Tesla end of Q offers in Q4 - customers who had waited for these could order in Q1.
E) UK BIK tax monthly reduction starting in April (more favourable than Holland) - Could lead to fleet sales ahead of the new tax year in April.
D) Limited reports of Tesla end of Q offers in Q4 - customers who had waited for these could order in Q1.
E) UK BIK tax monthly reduction starting in April (more favourable than Holland) - Could lead to fleet sales ahead of the new tax year in April.
7)
F) New higher EV incentive in Germany (but potential negative sales impact during the wait for this to be finalised).
G) Some possibility of first Model Y delivers in US (but likely low volume if any).
H) Likely continued ramp of production at Fremont.
F) New higher EV incentive in Germany (but potential negative sales impact during the wait for this to be finalised).
G) Some possibility of first Model Y delivers in US (but likely low volume if any).
H) Likely continued ramp of production at Fremont.
8)
I) Potential to lower pricing if needed given continued lower production costs.
J) Potential to add more car options to the configurator to boost demand if needed.
I) Potential to lower pricing if needed given continued lower production costs.
J) Potential to add more car options to the configurator to boost demand if needed.
9) I expect deliveries to be down QoQ but not nearly as much as last year & I think Tesla can potentially achieve Q1 profits (helped by likely step up in EU emissions credits from FCA & deferred FSD recognition).
I will form a firmer estimate of Q1 deliveries in the coming weeks
I will form a firmer estimate of Q1 deliveries in the coming weeks
