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1/ Quibi projected it will burn ~ $1.5B on both content and marketing in the first year... about two-thirds was on programming." theinformation.com/articles/quibi… How many Quibi customers can be acquired for <$500M in sales and marketing spending based on CAC for comparable services?
2/ Given necessary spending on G&A and R&D, roughly how much less than $500 million will the Quibi sales and marketing budget be?

What factors might cause customer acquisition cost for Quibi to rise or fall? Annual contract required? Product/Market fit? Sales channel choices?
3/ 25iQuiz: If Quibi has 7.5M subscribers in the US one year after launch and spends $300M to do that, inputmag.com/tech/quibi-is-… will it have acquired subscribers at $40 each? Or must CAC have been lower due to churn during year one?
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
I decided to read sell-side analyst reports at 3AM to distract me from kidney stone pain that woke me up last night. These reports can be helpful in summarizing what has already happened. Adopting some of the recommendations in the reports would cause more pain than my stone.
Forecasts (AKA guesses) in analyst reports can be a good source of humor though. For example,

"Sixteen of the world’s 500 billionaires have space investments, which could grow from a US$360bn market today, to potentially as big as US$2.7tn by 2045E (source: ULA)."
"While only 560+ people have ever been to space vs. a 7bn+ global population, government spending on space is expected to reach $79bn by 2025 vs $62bn in 2016 and the space market involving nanosatellites, space tourism etc could reach nearly $1tn by 2030 (source: OECD, ULA)."
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"We do get approached when somebody has a takeover bid. They say, 'Would you like to top it or something?' To which our answer, invariably, is no." Buffett

"Well, we're very good at saying no." Munger

"Charlie's even better than I am." Buffett
"By no means have we given up on putting our cash to work. If we don’t, the money isn't going away."

"At some price, we’d buy back Berkshire. We’re not looking for the chance to gleefully buy out shareholders at a substantial discount to value." (2005) d2wsh2n0xua73e.cloudfront.net/wp-content/upl…
Munger: "Our problem in finding investments is people are willing to pay higher prices than we are."

Buffett: "You can turn any investment into a bad deal by paying too much. What you can’t do is turn any investment into a good deal by paying a cheap price." 2019 BRK AGM
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
1/ There are always a few people who are too cheap to buy a book like mine on Charlie Munger amazon.com/gp/aw/d/023117… but who want to know the jokes. Since all my book income goes to charity, I'll try anything to make a sale (including freemium). Here's one of the jokes for free:
2/ Wait! You say you want to read more free financial jokes because you are too cheap to buy my Charlie Munger book? Since the marginal cost of tweeting another financial joke is about $0, here's one more:
3/ There's more humor about finance than actual jokes. Jokes are harder to write than quips. Lots of quips are funny, but only to a narrow audience since they are "inside baseball" even on financial twitter. This joke can even be understood by people who trade with bucket shops:
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Dan
@DanFined
DONALD TRUMP and the JEWS: 2016-2019
Earlier this year, I prepared a thread describing Trump’s relationship w/ the Jewish people & w/ Israel when he was a private citizen. Now, it’s time to continue to record all he has done for the Jews and Israel since he was elected POTUS.
For those who have not read the earlier threads, here they are. Read them first, then continue reading this current series of threads.
Here is the compilation of President Donald Trump & his administration’s statements & actions regarding the Jewish people & Israel since being elected President:
11/2016-9/2019.

I tried to make this both informative and entertaining. Thanks for reading.
Read 189 tweets
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Matthew Ball
@ballmatthew
Great (paywall) piece from @theinformation on Netflix becoming more "budget conscious" and "efficiency" focused.

Some thoughts below, but basically this is a natural maturation of Netflix's needs, rather than just its age or "Hollywoodification"

theinformation.com/articles/netfl…
For many years, Netflix’s primary concern was only solving for volume. Like a new pharmaceutical company, it could start a pipeline of development but everything was years from release.

As a result, it couldn’t be too selective on what was ordered/renewed to meet volume needs
Which is why we saw/still see Netflix bring back old shows (Arrested Development), take over cancelled ones (Designated Survivor), pickup those dropped by another network in development (Locke & Key), and rely heavily on packaged, ready-to-go shows (agencies super helpful here)
Read 5 tweets
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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
Some people just don't want to admit the obvious:
A kWh that you can produce when it is needed is more valuable than a kWh which only can be produced when the sun is shining
This is why studies show that in California when solar penetration reaches 30%, a solar kWh will lose two-thirds of its value
nature.com/articles/nener…
We have to ask people claiming "solar/wind is cheaper" why we then have to pay $129bn in subsidies? iea.org/weo2018/
Such claims are why ordinary citizens have paid a trillion dollars too much since 2007, and are on the hook for $4 trillion more till 2040
Read 3 tweets
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Alexis Verger
@Alexis_Verger
#365papers Let's try this for 2019, highlighting 365 papers (does not necessarily mean 1 paper per day) - A thread
#365papers 1⃣ The thread started with a bang - A must read opinion by @MarcHalfon on the fundamental question of how to define an enhancer cell.com/trends/genetic…
#365papers 2⃣ citrullination by PADI2 of RNA Pol II CTD R1810 regulates the transcription of highly expressed genes by mediating the interaction with P-TEFb cell.com/molecular-cell…
Read 367 tweets
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Brian Rahmer
@brianrahmer
“Job growth is not sufficient by itself to create upward mobility... It’s almost as though racial disparities have been amplified by job growth.”

#SDoH #HiAP #Interdependence apnews.com/20c455e8126b41…
“...while nonparticipation of prime-age males has risen in every education group, the biggest rise is not in the lowest-skill or highest-skill groups, but rather in the middle.”

#SDoH #HiAP #Interdependence conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2018/10/why-is…
“Well-being metrics can serve as warning lights; they point to vulnerabilities in particular places or groups of people and to positive trends that could provide broader lessons.” #SDoH #HiAP #IRoS science.sciencemag.org/content/362/64…
Read 198 tweets
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Turner Novak
@TurnerNovak
Just played around on TikTok for awhile. A combined TikTok/Music.ly is going to be insane.

No one has been able to effectively reach both China AND RoW in social at scale. Total reach is going to be huge. Wouldn’t be surprised if Toutiao is valued over $100B in a year or two.
TikTok + Musical.ly = Vine v2
Bytedance (owns Toutiao, TikTok/Musica.ly) raising $3B at a $75B valuation.

Valued at $30B in late 2017, recent private market transactions trades imply a $62B valuation.

wsj.com/articles/beiji…
Read 68 tweets

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