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A really well-written and disturbing article about China and the future of its relationship with America.

newyorker.com/magazine/2020/…
Interesting that Kissinger thinks of a variant of the "forest-cutting" theory (i.e. that rising powers will start conflicts when the growth in their power slows below some critical level)...
Here was the thread where I explained that theory...

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Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
A friend told me about how her band almost broke up because of a disagreement over whether to allow some Israelis to dance at their performance with an Israeli flag. She said she would definitely not allow the flag, and that it was similar to a Nazi or Confederate flag.
I asked her: What if it were a Chinese flag?

"That's more complicated," she said.

What about an American flag?, I asked.

"Also complicated."

What about a French flag?, I asked.

"That would be fine", she said.
Anyway I thought it was kind of an interesting interaction...
Read 3 tweets
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Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
How a country can hit its growth targets every year:
1. Forecast next year's growth, make that the "target"
2. If growth misses the target, fudge the numbers for that year to make it look like you hit the target, and spread the difference across the next few years
3. Repeat
This method only fails if growth surprises in one direction for several years in a row. And even then you can just wait a decade for people to figure out what the real numbers were, and by then no one cares.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
From a politician's perspective, there's really no downside to this as long as everyone who makes policy knows the true numbers. The upside is that you make the government look omnipotent, and you prevent fickle investors from stampeding out of the country if growth dips.
Read 5 tweets
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Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
Wow. South African real per capita GDP has apparently been shrinking since 2014. Are South Africans really getting poorer??
Alternative measures of GDP seem to agree - South Africans are getting poorer.
In fact just eyeballing it, it looks like South Africans actually have lower average standards of living than before the Great Recession. That's beyond "recession", that's a lost decade. What the heck is going on in South Africa??
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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IndoPacific_SCS_Info
@IndoPac_Info
#China could cut off vital supply of drugs to #America and even add lethal contaminants if trade war escalates, defense experts warn - "Basically we've outsourced our entire industry to China" dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7…
China dominates the global pharmaceuticals market & could monopolize it
China could 'weaponize' and hold drugs ransom
Not only that but it is feared Beijing could add lethal contaminants to supplies
US hospitals and military hospitals could shutdown within months, experts claim
China could cut off America's drugs supply and hold lives ransom if the trade war escalates, defense experts warn.

Decades ago penicillin, vitamin C, and many other medicines were made in the US. Now they are made in the Far East.
Read 12 tweets
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Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
@pdacosta
THREAD: Going out on a limb to say the United States needs more stringent anti-corruption laws and enforcement. opensecrets.org/news/2019/06/t…
"Trump’s business entanglements continue to leave him with positions, assets, trademarks and other business interests in more than 30 countries."
"Trump’s sprawling web of foreign properties and investments, which includes some projects completed during his presidency or still under development, reveals a litany of apparent efforts by foreign business leaders and governments to gain influence."
Read 27 tweets
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Andrew Erickson 艾立信
@AndrewSErickson
#MustRead @NewYorker: China’s Bizarre Program to Keep Activists in Check

newyorker.com/magazine/2018/…

People the state considers troublemakers may be sent to jail—or sent on vacation.

bei lüyou—“to be touristed”—joins passive voice phrases describing things PRC gov’t does to people
Chinese #netizen slang: "whenever law enforcement frames people, or otherwise conscripts them into an activity, the prefix bei is used to indicate the passive tense. Hence: bei loushui (to be tax-evaded), bei zisha (to be suicided), bei piaochang (to be johned), and so on."
"In a joke [Chinese liberals—educated urbanites] liked about the 2016 U.S. election, a bunch of eunuchs are so appalled by the bawdy quarrels among the married folk that they congratulate themselves: 'How fortunate we are to be castrated!'"

newyorker.com/magazine/2018/…
Read 16 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
*NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said that the international situation was bringing “downward pressure” on China.
*Link: bloom.bg/2RVX1ZA
🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
*Statement: bit.ly/2EujhqH
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇪🇺 In a volley of filings, the EU, #China and the U.S. this week escalated disputes over new U.S. metals tariffs, the European response to those levies, and Chinese intellectual property practices - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 634 tweets
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davealvord164
@davealvord164
1/
 NEWSFEED --- May 7th, 2018 -- Monday

How much does @kanyewest scare the
@DNC and @Democrats

Part 1/2 - "Free Thought Is for White People" - @TheRoot

Article LITERALLY argues Black People are incapable of Free Speech.
Totally not kidding.
👇
theroot.com/free-thought-i…
1/
 NEWSFEED --- May 7th, 2018 -- Monday

How much does @kanyewest scare the
@DNC and @Democrats

Part 1/2 - "Free Thought Is for White People" - @TheRoot

Article LITERALLY argues Black People are incapable of Free Speech.
Totally not kidding.
👇
theroot.com/free-thought-i…
2/
 NEWSFEED --- May 7th, 2018 -- Monday

How much does @kanyewest scare the
@DNC and @Democrats

Part 2/2 - "I’m Not Black, I’m Kanye" - @TheAtlantic

Article LITERALLY argues Black People are incapable of Freedom.
I've read it.
It's Breathtaking.
👇
theatlantic.com/entertainment/…
Read 97 tweets
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Catherine Walsh
@gurriersread
Oh the geezers are hard at it grafting media, it's always great to have easy scapegoats "North Korean cyber gangs.." a.msn.com/01/en-ie/AAt9g…
2/"Mr Murphy’s firm was the first in the world to liaise with computer giant IBM over the use of the super-computer ‘Watson’ for real-time--
3/artificial intelligence-based defence against cyber criminals." Bear with me, I'm about to post a few more links in #THREAD #CyberSecurity
Read 71 tweets

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