Thread by @PaulAbiNasr

1/ So now that we got the draft Policy Statement released, here is an overview on what i would have expected to see in a proper Policy draft. ( i am sorry if there are too many numbers, i know it makes gvt uneasy and they prefer poetry) 👇

2/ I won't delve too much in the non-economic aspect (at least not at this point), but regarding corruption and the judicial system :
Immediate passing of the laws that separates the judicial system from the executive branch BEFORE any further appointments, and task the…

3/ …judicial body to create the committees and task forces it see fit to conduct anti-corruption efforts and eventually any restitution of funds /or properties. Any other "guarantees" not to meddle is smoke screens

4/ On improving gvt finances :
First on customs, imports and smuggling

5/ - Tasking the LAF to close ALL illegal border crossings with embedded journalists that would document the effort for the general public. And hold a weekly press conference to update the public on the progress.

6/ -Raid retail stores all around the country requiring them to provide the invoices for the items they have on display. apply a 10Million lbp fine if not availble. The idea is to kill the demand for contraband. Recidivist would be fined exponentially and made public.

7/ -Review the Tariffs Code: The vast majority of the imports are logged under categories labeled "Others" in every HS heading. Most of these are subject to 0% tariffs, making it quite useful for tariffs evasion.

8/ All "others" categories should be taxed at 50% and new HSCODES should be enacted to better categorize the imports that should be exempt of duties.

9/ -The customs should require the exporting country's official customs documents to process any import. Currently it is not mandatory and thus most of the imports are under invoiced.

10/ -A total review of the Tariffs should be done , along the lines of what @alindustrialist have proposed, preventing dumping from illegally subsidizing countries.

@alindustrialist 11/ On cracking down on informal companies and double book keeping: while the former is pure theft, the latter was mostly inherited.

@alindustrialist 12/ And most of the companies are registered as personal establishment not being able to grow out of it due to the incredible cost involved in valuations and fines due to the double book keeping. Most of it can be traced back to the war. Proposal :

@alindustrialist 13/ - Enact the MoF financial settlement law which would give any willing company the right to pay 0.5% of their sales over the past 4 years to get a clean slate.

@alindustrialist 14/ -Enact a stock valuation settlement law ,which would give any willing company the right to re-valuate their stocks by paying 0.5% of their previously disclosed stock to the MoF

@alindustrialist 15/ -Enact the property valuation settlement which would let companies re-evaluate their assets without paying anything as long as they are not sold. The re-evaluation fee would be paid upon reselling said asset out of the company.

@alindustrialist 16/ -Enact the Social Security settlement law, which would let companies pay 7% of their normal fees and get a clean slate.

@alindustrialist 17/ -Enable companies that went through the first 4 settlements to switch status from Est. to S.A.L. Creating a MUCH larger revenue stream for the GVT , improving corporate governance and attracting FDIs to enter their capital.

@alindustrialist 18/ -Enact the Merger law to enable companies to merge,free of charge, to improve their resilience and create synergies .

@alindustrialist 19/ -Reduce the VAT threshold to 0 from the current 150Mn Lbp. Most fraudulent companies only declare to sell under that level and end up pocketing the 11% VAT.

@alindustrialist 20/ On reducing the public sector cost:

@alindustrialist 21/ - Immediate reduction of 35% of all public sector wages. The increase that was enacted as a pure electoral bribery cannot be left as is.

@alindustrialist 22/ -Immediate review of All public sector jobs pending the termination of some, and the reassignment of others. The target would be an immediate reduction of 15% in the workforce (only cracking down on ghost jobs will achieve it)

@alindustrialist 23/ -The termination of all the continuous payment of wages to non currently serving gvt officials including their benefits.

@alindustrialist 24/ -Implementing a clear human resources assessment protocol and linking that to any potential increase in wages. We should not reward employees for showing up at work but rather being excellent at it.

@alindustrialist 25/ -Enacting the E-Gov initiative starting with all registries,digitizing the data, and enabling online payment and delivery of the info, reducing workforce in the process and streamlining direct payment to the coffers.

@alindustrialist 26/ -Immediate closure of "temporary" funds, such as the "displaced" and "south" funds .

@alindustrialist 27/ -Immediate closure of ghost entities (railways, atomic energy...)

@alindustrialist 28/ -Closure of the special councils , such as the development council and merging it back into the relevant ministries.

@alindustrialist 29/ -Make public all the assessments of any gvt-commissioned work to improve scrutiny and accountability. ( yes, everyone should know why this new road is unusable 6 months after handing over, and who was responsible)

@alindustrialist 30/ On the sovereign debt and its servicing :

@alindustrialist 31/ - Immediately engage with all stakeholders in direct and clear negotiations regarding restructuring and reprofiling of the sovereign debt.

@alindustrialist 32/ - Bring the IMF on board, first as a technical assistance and eventually as a lender as well.

@alindustrialist 33/ -Target a reduction of $35bn in principal and a reprofiling that would give a 2 years grace period for interests/coupons.

@alindustrialist 34/ -Place a 3 year plan to de-peg the LBP from the USD starting when the financial situation is re-stabilized.

@alindustrialist 35/ -Enact a Temporary Capital Control scheme that would stop capital flight

@alindustrialist 36/ -Enact a incentive scheme for depositors to invest in the economy reducing pressure on the banks and potential capital mvt out of country.

@alindustrialist 37/ -Use the current remaining FX reserves of the BDL to keep the economy from choking. By providing FX to import raw materials and other necessary items .

@alindustrialist 38/ On the trade deficit and the BoP deficit :

@alindustrialist 39/ -Stop fuel smuggling to Syria immediately (~$2bn/year)

@alindustrialist 40/ -Stop Wrought Gold and Precious Stones imports (not used in the jewelry manufacturing, those barely go through Lebanon, and pay neither tariffs nor VAT) (~$1.7bn/year)

@alindustrialist 41/ -Temporarily reduce Cars and trucks imports (~$1.5bn)

@alindustrialist 42/ -Push for import substitution of ~$2.5bn, more on that later

@alindustrialist 43/ -Target total imports should not exceed ~$12bn

@alindustrialist 44/ -Target BoP deficit in FX should not exceed ~$7bn which can be covered by remittances.

@alindustrialist 45/ Before tackling other matters which would revolve around the removal of subsidies and the improvement of services, we propose the introduction of a digital id (LebID) that would give said person access to subsidized services across all the public sector.

@alindustrialist 46/
On energy , including BDL , water and renwables :

@alindustrialist 47/ -Immediately change the current rates, peg them to the price of fuel to make the company profitable. Holder of the LebID would get 1000kwH at 90 000 lbp. Also provide prices adjusted to price of real estate (Downtown would have a higher rate than Abdeh)

@alindustrialist 48/ -Task the ISF to conduct joint raids with EDL to crackdown on theft of power, embed journalists with the task force to report back to the public.

@alindustrialist 49/ -Provide a license to all the willing industrial zones to provide for their own power generation , on a zone level. This would reduce pressure on the current grid and drastically reduce technical losses (target 50% reduction)

@alindustrialist 50/ - Get funds from international entities to provide the private sector with green loans (as was the case before) to further reduce the pressure on the grid, by reducing its centrality.(Target $300Mn/year)

@alindustrialist 51/ -Improve the Net-meetering system to make it easy to implement and open up the possibility to buy excess energy from the private sector at a rate lower than the cost of EDL.

@alindustrialist 52/ -Immediately launch simultaneous bids to erect new power plants, grid improvement and expansion while providing a clear clause for the requirement of temporary power generation in the contract (1.2 GWatts).

@alindustrialist 53/ -Set a 25% renewable energy goal within 5 years

@alindustrialist 54/ -Create a joint committee including the major Lebanese universities, environmental activists, international experts and gvt officials ,which would be tasked to review all water dams, current and future, and provide a plan on hydro-power generation.

@alindustrialist 55/ -Float the price of gasoline, add 5000lbp tax to it. LebID holders will get 160Liters/month at 150lbp/Liter . Revenues from the tax will more than make up for the small subsidy

@alindustrialist 56/ On public transportation :

@alindustrialist 57/ -Immediately install bus stops all over the country as per a clear plan to cover most destinations.

@alindustrialist 58/ -Create a public transportation company (PPP funded and controlled) that would buy back ALL the buses and vans currently in circulation, and employ the drivers. The company would then run those assets with clear routes and clear cost.

@alindustrialist 59/ -Start a working on a public transportation multi-year plan that would reintroduce trains and look at novel transportation systems that would fit our geography (hyperloop options ).

@alindustrialist 60/ On social security, health care and social benefits :

@alindustrialist 61/ -Replace the current system of handing out a end of service compensation with a retirement scheme. Employees would be paid up to 70% of their last paycheck (reverse corrected with increased paychecks) continuously after retirement. Corrected to inflation.

@alindustrialist 62/
-Float the price of branded medicine and drugs. Keeping multinational companies engaged in Lebanon is crucial to keep a high standard of health care and the availability of cutting edge products.

@alindustrialist 63/ -Introducing controlled and regulated generics to be produced locally (around $350Mn reduction in imports can be achieved as such)

@alindustrialist 64/ -All gvt organisms would price their services and covers based on the generics cost and any person wanting to use the branded versions would have to pay the difference

@alindustrialist 65/ -Linking the LebId to reimbursement, ie: the social security cover would be applied at the purchasing upon usage of the ID. so a branded drug would cost 10 000lbp but the user would pay only 3000lbp which is the Diff with the generic cost

@alindustrialist 66/ On other subsidies :

@alindustrialist 67/ - Bread subsidies should be removed, and the holders of the LebId would be able to buy subsidized bread to the tune of 4 packs per week at the subsidized price of 1500 lbp
- Any other subsidies should be removed as well and only LebId holders would have access to them.

@alindustrialist 68/ Any broad stroke approach reduced the ability to provide subsidies to those in need while providing it to those who don't .

@alindustrialist 69/ On improving the economy and migrating it to a productive one :

@alindustrialist 70/ - Enact sprawling tax incentives to the productive sectors.

@alindustrialist 71/ - Moratorium on public purchases from non-local producers unless none are available.

@alindustrialist 72/ - PPP creation of a cold chain for the agricultural sector

@alindustrialist 73/ - Enacting a country level agricultural plan that would provide with a clear vision of what type of crops should be produced and why. Providing technical assistance and tariffs protection to enable growers to invest time and funds with stable returns.

@alindustrialist 74/ - Creating the proper framework (explained in the sections above) for industrial companies to incorporate properly to be able to increase capital and promote governance. With all the idle deposits available a big investment in the industrial sector can be achieved(~$4bn)

@alindustrialist 75/ - Import substitution (~2.5bn) would create ~150 000 private sector jobs (~50k in the manufacturing sector only)

@alindustrialist 76/ - Providing FX incentives for current importers of branded products to produce part of their catalog under license in Lebanon.

@alindustrialist 77/ - Enacting the "potential tariffs protection act" : tariffs would be bumped on certain products should any company which to invest in Lebanon and produce them here. (Terms and conditions would apply to ensure quality and preventing monopolies)

@alindustrialist 78/ I hope this covers most of the socio-economic aspects i would have expected to be proposed.
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