Even while losing +2% to Nadar, IA broke for Gore over Bush in '00 & broke for Bush by .67% in '04. In 08', under a turnout scenario similar to '20 Obama crushed McCain by 9.5pts,then 5.8% in '12. Yes, Trump won the state in '16- & by a huge margin, over 9pts, & unlike other
Midwest states, he managed to crack the 50% mark here, something he failed to do in all but 1 other swing state (Ohio). What gets forgotten, apparently by @SenJoniErnst (@joniernst) too, is that @HillaryClinton only earned 41% of the vote & that is due to IA's unusually inclusive 
3rd party ballot. As 3rd party balloting goes, this is 1 of the best menus voters can get, & in the Everyone Sucks election, its explains a missing 8% of the 2-party vote share. No 1 pays attention to this aside from me it seems, but its so critical.
Ersnt might want to though.
Ersnt might want to though.
IA is a funny state. It is not yet clear if it is more like WI and MI and still very friendly territory for the Ds or if its more like MO and IN, realigning away and perhaps, just a bit ahead of the MI & WI in that process. Des Moines is huge now & vibrant. The Caucus turnout
will show us a lot about potential Dem power statewide. As you know my model classifies IA as one of four toss-ups. @joniernst @SenJoniErnst may want to look at that cnu.edu/wasoncenter/20…
