Thread by @AlexandraErin

And for the record, I have seen the arguments that the delayed results hurt Bernie by stealing momentum.

But I can't agree with them. They seem to be assuming no results will come out, or they will be ignored when they do.

The basis for this is "Well that's how the news cycle works during a primary." But we're talking about an atypical situation, and an atypical candidate who runs an atypical campaign and appeals to atypical voters.

Why is normality your go-to model?

What happened all the other times the Iowa caucus results were delayed in conjunction with confusion over a new app roll-out? Nothing, because this is the first time.

If anything, Iowa's poised to steal focus from New Hampshire more than the other way around.

Tomorrow -- today, now -- is the state of the union. Day after that is the vote on conviction in the Senate. Then The Eyes Of The Nation Turn To New Hampshire.

If the results had landed last night as planned... they'd have to make a big splash, quickly.

Now if they come out today, or tomorrow, or the day after, it's going to be a crowded news cycle, sure, but there will be more to talk about. We'll be talking about it longer. Whoever wins will get extra coverage from the novelty of it, and the meta-analysis.

If the results come out, say, Wednesday, in the middle of the Senate hearing, worst possible news timing, and they say Bernie won... the question of what it means for his momentum, what it says about his momentum, could get more coverage than a simple clear result on Monday.

There's one week between now and the New Hampshire primary. NH, I believe, does not permit early voting, so no ballots will be cast before next Tuesday. With the important events today and tomorrow, something that helps the Iowa results carry in the new cycle closer to it...

...makes the Iowa results more relevant, not less.

Honestly, I give a 50/50 chance that the SOTU speech lands with a dull thud vs. a very noisy explosion. And if it's the latter, we'd all forget about the caucus results literally overnight.

In a normal situation.

If you think the results are being tampered with... all this is irrelevant. If you fear, as I've seen some people do, that the process was so flawed there will be no usable results before other contests are decided, that I concede would do irreparable harm to the erstwhile winner

But in terms of taking more than a day to tabulate and verify the results to the point that they can be announced with confidence... I don't see a downside for Bernie. I don't see that costing him press or momentum or enthusiasm. The campaign's not going to be spinning its wheels

He and his followers and volunteers aren't going to sit around waiting for results. And if he's announced the winner, the press coverage is less likely to be a blip swallowed up by the press of SOTU/impeachment/New Hampshire than it would be if it was just a clear Monday victory.

Like, I don't want to belabor this point because we're all aghast enough, but: does anyone think the net effect of *gestures around* all of this will be that we hear LESS about Iowa this year? That we'll escape it sooner?

I get why people are expecting the circus to move on and the spotlight to switch to New Hampshire and points beyond. That's how it normally works. We don't really have a model for what's going on right now.

(Which also means I could be wrong. It's all hypothetical.)

But for my money, I don't expect Iowa to drop off the radar like normal. And I believe there is no campaign better situated to gain momentum from this, win or lose, than the Sanders campaign.

Not entirely for reasons I think are great, mind you.