Thread by @AlexandraErin

Here's where I am. This is not a prediction because the future is a moving target and I don't know what will change between now and the summer, only that things will.

1. Biden is still most likely to win.
2. I would prefer Bernie to him.
3. Neither one is my candidate.

And I'm not going to vote for Bernie in order to defeat Biden just because Bernie people strategically declared this to be a Two Man Race last year, long before any votes were cast. In a crowded field ,it matters a lot who people's second choice is.

How much of the "It's Bernie or Biden, so vote for Bernie or you're voting for Biden" story boils down to the idea that Bernie is the naturally ascendant victor and if he loses it can only be because The Establishment blocked him, and Biden is the most The Establishment?

I'm QTing you not to dunk but because you're not alone in feeling this.

You do know superdelegates had no impact in 2016? If Biden wins, it's because he connects with voters. I know that sounds weird, because everyone you know is far from for him, right?

https://twitter.com/pauljessup/status/1224740301400616960

The reason Biden is still in the running after a very bad showing in Iowa is Iowa is a small state with few delegates and he's got a lot of support where he needs it, including the actual Democratic base (which isn't in Iowa).

Bernie can fire up his supporters and inspire some uncommon voters with discontent and grumbling against the DNC but honestly I don't like his chances against Biden head to head if the competitive side of his campaign is running against a myth.

A lot of people like Biden. A lot of reliable voters in core Democratic demographics. The power the DNC has to anoint a candidate is badly overstated.

I said last night that I love Bernie's platform and I wish he'd run on it more, which confused some because it's not like he doesn't pound the planks of it.

I mean the metagame aspect of his campaign. The way he and his people handle the competitive side.

Undermining faith in the system (which is flawed, but its flaws aren't "the DNC runs everything like Tammany Hall) is a way to get a step or two up for his campaign but I think it's unlikely to put him over the top, and can only hurt turnout in November.

And, Jesus... I said this last time and I'll say it again.

If Bernie can't get past ordinary party politicking in the primary or a liberal media that seems to downplay him, he will be SLAUGHTERED in the general. SLAUGHTERED.

The fact that the "liberal media" and the decentralized Democratic Party are seen as tougher foes than the well-oiled right-wing propaganda machine and a top-down unified GOP is a sign of how limited this strategy is.

Elizabeth Warren remembered a conversation they had with a different emphasis than he did = she's a lying, backstabbing snake who tried to kill our savior!

Wait until you see all the things Trump remembers about him, if he's the candidate.

I will vote for even Michael Bloomberg if he's the Democratic candidate so you'd better believe I'd vote for Bernie or Biden.

But there has been one (1) contest and zero (0) results. It's too early to declare the field won or down to two.

I can't make you do anything but.

Vote for the person you most want to be candidate in the primary. Then vote for the candidate in the general. And remember that there will be a general and your candidate still has to win it if they win the nomination.

"So you'd even vote for ____ who did ____ and wants to ____?"

Yes to get the guy who really wants to drop a nuke on someone and who is actively pushing us towards heads on pikes and jailing reporters and suspending elections I will vote for basically anyone, then fight them.

If we don't win and win big in November... I don't honestly know that there's another chance to fix this with ballots. I don't like the odds.

"SO YOU BETTER VOTE FOR BERNIE BECAUSE HE'S THE ONE WHO CAN WIN." I'll vote for him in the general if he's the candidate.

And if Bernie's not the candidate... the stakes don't change. I'm not going to get my dream president, I'm voting to get the Republican Party and Donald Trump out of power. If they get routed hard enough now, at this point? They could be done for good.

I don't know why the American Left thinks the road to having a true progressive party is to destroy the Democrats and take their place. The Republicans are more vulnerable, and if they bring down the right and the Democrats are the new right, the Overton Window favors them more.

Use the AOC model to dilute the Democratic Party and pull it leftward. Focus on defeating the Republican Party - their strategy depends on them having a certain amount of power, they can't survive with their demographics as a party in exile. Get them out and they crumble.

There is a way forward for bringing leftist politics into the mainstream but it's not about tying yourself to a single big name candidate and burning everything down if he does't win.

And happily, the first step --defeating the GOP -- will help save the republic.

Until yesterday, I had not actually talked much about the primary for someone whose twitter beat is politics because ultimately most of this is meaningless. Except to the extent that it affects turnout in November, mostly it still is. Is that sad? Does that suck? Sure.

Our system is terrible but our situation is worse. We have to survive the situation to fix the system.

When we get to the point that our elections are a choice between improving ObamaCare vs. scrapping it for single payer, we'll have breathing room to explore things like ranked choice voting that could weaken/end the two party system. I'd like that. How about you?

But right now our choice is between a party that has a variety of ideas about healthcare and one whose idea for healthcare is "I don't know, have you thought about dying penniless in the streets?" and which also doesn't think elections should mean anything.

Vote for the horribly flawed human candidate you most want to win, of the ones on the ballot, in the primary. Repeat that in the general. I can't make you do that. But if you're following me you're tacitly interested in what I have to say, and that's it.

I'm looking forward to going back to saying less about the primary because, again, ultimately it's November turnout that wins. I'm not here to defeat Bernie. I'm not here to defeat Biden. I'm not even here to defeat Bloomberg. I'm here to defeat Trump and the Republican Party.

If we manage to put someone else in the Oval Office instead of him, I hope we can keep even half of the energy for fighting them that we've had for fighting Trump. Imagine the world if we were bringing this much pressure to someone less stubborn and more susceptible to shame.

I feel like that's what is missing from a lot of the primary discourse - the fact that the job isn't to put the perfect candidate into office and they'll fix everything.

I know why savior narratives are appealing. And why they're dangerous.

If you're not prepared to shout at even your own candidate to do better once they're in office, I don't think you're actually prepared to build a better world.