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Our post-debate poll with @Ipsos is out!

It has lots of good news for SANDERS, BUTTIGIEG and KLOBUCHAR.

It has really bad news for BIDEN.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-deb…
@Ipsos SANDERS got the highest overall ratings for his performance.

KLOBUCHAR got the best ratings relative to her pre-debate favorability.

BIDEN and YANG did poorly relative to their pre-debate favorability.
@Ipsos BUTTIGIEG had the biggest increase in the number of voters who are considering him (maybe the most important metric in our poll). KLOBUCHAR and SANDERS also gained here.

BIDEN's numbers fell quite a lot.
@Ipsos Favorability ratings changes were pretty mixed; a lot of candidates saw both their favorables and unfavorables increase. But KLOBUCHAR had the biggest net increase and BIDEN the biggest net decrease.
@Ipsos Finally, BUTTIGIEG's numbers improved the most on perceived electability while BIDEN's fell quite a bit and dropped behind SANDERS.

Also not great news for WARREN on this question, and her numbers elsewhere the survey were mixed.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
This poll was conducted yesterday (i.e. post-NH) which makes it a rather encouraging poll for Biden.
Here, from Florida, is the other fully post-NH state poll we have and it's ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
You can see why Florida is a good state for both Bloomberg and Biden (old people). At the same time, this round of state polling is not suggestive of Sanders shoring up his support with his weakest groups, which keeps the door open for everyone else.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
They presumably won't endorse Sanders, or Warren, given their vocally coming out against M4A in recent days.
So, who do we think it's gonna be, politics Twitter?
LOL it kind of figures that this poll is hopelessly deadlocked.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Our polling average is starting to get more aggressive about Biden's decline. Bloomberg and Buttigieg rising. Sanders too, though not super quickly. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
And our first model run with any post-NH polling data reflects this also. Bernie and Buttigieg up slightly. Bloomberg up more and is now 2nd in projected delegates. Biden down quite a bit, Warren slightly down. Not much traction for Klobuchar yet. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorseme…
Meanwhile, "no majority" chances holding steady at 36%, only slightly behind Bernie (39%).
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Amanda Marcotte
@AmandaMarcotte
After the last debate, I declared that both Biden and Warren had “won”, insofar as he needed to speak less (fewer opportunities to screw up) and she needed to speak more (to get onto people’s radars). salon.com/2019/10/16/hea…
Just want to note that 538’s new post-debate polling analysis shows my gut check was right. Both Warren and Biden were successful at improving their support in the debate. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-deb…
Where I was wrong: Buttigieg’s heel turn was a turn-off for me and I thought it might hurt him. But he gained support. Watching a younger man condescend to an older woman who knows better than him still has some fans, I see.
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
So we seem to have stopped discussing electability when #Bernie started slipping below #Warren and #Harris's favorables topped #Biden's.
Huh.
Maybe women ARE the ticket for 2020.
#Campaign2020
A month from now when the main debate stage is Biden, Bernie, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Beto, Klobuchar, Booker, Inslee, Castro and maybe Yang & Williamson, there will be more shifts in the polls.
One issue that will be raised is age.
No one will need to say it--we'll see it.
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Rob Taber
@RobTaber
Say you want to go canvassing but don't know how to link up with a campaign (and definitely DO link up with a campaign or legit organization, we have 10 days left). Allow me to lay it out . . .
First, do some quick googling. Can you find your local county party ("[x] county Democratic Party") on the web? Facebook? Twitter?
If you do, great! But do NOT just fill out the "volunteer now" form and wait for a phone call. Yes, the form feeds into the county party's database (NGPVan), but that may not be checked regularly by an all-volunteer organization. Call the phone number, message the social media.
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