Thread by @a_sandhan

#Coronavirus
Thread on effect of corona virus on economy, social stability, jobs n stature of China. Also brief review of effect on world.
👉China is 60% urbanized. Major economy is concentrated in big cities n 100 km of coastline

👉Due to threat of corona virus nearly all major cites r shutdown, quarantined
👉Rail, road, air transport has come to a halt, so also industrial production
👉China is worlds largest energy consumer from 2009. Decreased demand will lower fuel prices globally till normalcy returns

👉China is already facing biggest bad debts. Its banks r in unbearable stress
👉Sectors of Chinese economy affected due to shutdown: industry, tourism industry, merchant navy, transport, real estate, meat industry, fish products

👉All the above sectors r very huge in China, generating enormous revenues n employing crores
👉Any business has certain fixed costs, be in normal or shutdown mode. Shutdown will hit there profit margins
👉To cut losses they may not pay employees or do layoff

👉With no work businesses will fail to repay to banks
👉Layoff will create unprecedented social unrest in China. There will be chaos, loot of food items
👉Today is not 1989, Chinese police/army's patience will be tested handling own people

👉Fearing spread of virus in all animal China was already banned consumption n destruction of meat
👉China's food import bill is highest at $ 105 bn. They import 64% of required vegetables
👉Shifting from non veg to veg will require huge import of vegetables

👉India has golden opportunity in attracting China bound tourist n huge agriculture market
👉China already had biggest unsold home units. Couple of yrs ago they had 50 ghost cities. New cities built up for 1 milling people with all amenities, but empty

👉Widespread layoff, wage cuts, business in loss will make life hell for real estate sector
👉Inflation high due to isolation of market n supply cut
👉 Every chance overstressed banks will collapse due to massive failure of repayment. Even after situation normalize liquidity

crunch will be there
👉China is the biggest trading country in world
👉Industrial supply chain will be very badly affected as companies nowdays doesn't maintain more than couple of day inventory

👉China's opaque manner of handling sensitive things affecting global economy will not be taken lightly by companies sourcing spares from them
👉Every chance global giants will see it at reliable source of supply chain than cheap but unreliable source. Will hurt China badly

👉Sectors in India badly hit n operating at reduced capacity due to dumping of cheap goods from China has good chance to utilize its full capacity to meet the shortfall
👉Cascading effect of all these things can push China into utter chaos

👉Great nations emerge stronger after setbacks. Precondition for it is, a nationalistic society n leader with integrity
👉Sadly China lacks both, so I see a very rough road ahead for them. Only miracle save them

👉Some may say Chinese society is nationalist, no they r very selfish
👉One point miss. CPEC/BRI uses Chinese workforce. No country will allow Chinese workers till the situation normalizes n host countries r sure about it. Already unviable projects further hit

👉Weak nations bullied by China can come together, especially the west African countries where China steals fish of $ 15-20 bn annually. Same can be followed by others
👉Weakening of China will impact Pak n an important opposition party in India. There situation will worsen

👉With China trying to sort out its own mess, Pak can't expect any help from China
👉China was Pak's last hope
👉Tubelight leaders favourite item in speech was China economy, gone
👉India should shrewdly make most of the situation n work things to our advantage

👉With 10% decrease in China's fuel consumption, fuel price decreases by 16% during last 15 days
👉Chinese growth rate in first quarter projected to 2% less than earlier projected
👉Annual growth rate projection reduced from 6% to 5.6%, hoping condition doesn't worsen further