Thread by @adam_ni

Thread on China's new defense white paper, China's National Defense in the New Era. This WP has just been released by the @chinascio. Press conference is happening now.

Thanks to you know who you are.

#China #PLA

@chinascio WP starts off with Section 1 looking at the "International Security Situation", highlighting that the world is undergoing changes "unseen in a century" with "prominent destabilizing factors and uncertainties in international security".

"The world is not yet a tranquil place".

@chinascio What are the profound changes as seen by China that is transforming the international strategic landscape?

Most prominently, WP points out the acceleration of the "realignment of international powers" with the "configuration of strategic power...becoming more balanced"

@chinascio Despite this reconfiguration and the growing "forces for peace predominating over elements of war","international security system and order are undermined by growing hegemonism, power politics, unilateralism and constant regional conflicts and wars"

(direct dig at the US)

@chinascio The WP is highly critical of the US, singling it out for adopting "unilateral policies", for provoking "intensified competition among major countries", rising defense expenditure, and pushing for enhanced capabilities in "nuclear, outer space, cyber and missile defense"...

@chinascio ...and undermining "global strategic stability".

"international arms control and disarmament efforts have suffered setbacks, with growing signs of arms races."

@chinascio In the "Asia-Pacific", WP sees the security situation as "generally stable" with SCO and ADMM+ playing "positive roles in enhancing trust among regional countries"

"The situation in the South China Sea is generally stable and improving"

(p3)

@chinascio As economic and political gravity continue to shift towards the "Asia-Pacific", WP assesses that the region will become a focus for "major power competition" and therefore, "bringing uncertainties to regional security."

What are these uncertainties?

@chinascio The WP seems to put these uncertainties into 2 categories: 1) strategy and security policy of major countries in the region, and 2) regional hotspots and disputes.

The US, Korea, Japan and Australia have all being singled out as adding to uncertainties

(p4)

@chinascio US alliances, deployments and intervention in the region is "adding complexity to regional security. This includes the deployment of THAAD in ROK which has "severely undermined the regional strategic balance" and security interests of other countries.

@chinascio In a not-so-subtle dig at Japan: "[i]n an attempt to circumvent the post-war mechanisms, Japan has adjusted its military and security policies...becoming more outwards-looking in its military endeavour"

China is basically worried about about Japan becoming a normal country.

@chinascio On Australia: "Australia continues to strengthen its military alliance with the US and in military engagement in Asia-Pacific, seeking a bigger role in security affairs."

Given the context of the section, China does not seem to like this, & sees this as adding to uncertainties.

@chinascio On regional hotspots, Korea peninsula, India/Pakistan, Afghanistan and territorial disputes all got a mention. But pretty bland - I don't see anything new about the language.

@chinascio On security risks confronting China, the WP the "notable increase in China's overall national strength, global influence, and resilience to risks". Despite the changing landscape, it continue to see China as in an "important period of strategic opportunity for development".

@chinascio Revealingly, the top security risk for China is "separatists" which is becoming more "acute". Taiwan continues to slide towards "de jure independenace", and this "remain[s] the gravest immediate threat to peace & stability"

@chinascio After Taiwan comes "Tibet independence" and "East Turkistan" separatists forces, which interestingly are characterised as "external separatist forces" that threaten China's national security and social stability.

This characterisation - "external" - is really interesting to me.

@chinascio The WP also highlight that "China's homeland security still faces threats" from unresolved "territorial disputes" and US actions in conducting "close-in reconnaissance on China by air and sea, and illegally enter[ing]" Chinese territory.

@chinascio Important! The WP talks about "China's overseas interests" which are "endangered" by international & regional turmoil, terrorism & piracy. It mentions attacks on Chinese diplomatic missions, businesses and people around the world.

@chinascio WP states that "global military competition is intensifying". Major countries are trying to "seize the strategic commanding heights in military competition" by optimising force structures and applying new tech such as "AI, quantum information, big data, cloud computing..."

@chinascio WP notes that PLA has "yet to complete the task of mechanization" and in "urgent need of improving its informationization".

Indeed, it points that China's military security is confronted by risks from "technology surprise" and "tech generation gap" (???)

@chinascio WP acknowledges that "[g]reater efforts have to be invested in military modernization to meet national security demands."

It admits, perhaps too humbly in my opinion: "[t]he PLA still lags behind the world's leading militaries.

Basically, saying we need to do heaps more.

Note the explicit mentioning of "political security", "social stability", Taiwan, Tibet and "East Turkistan". These are new language absent from the last defense WP.

To clarify, the 2015 defense WP says re PLA's role:

"To strengthen efforts in operations against infiltration, separatism and terrorism so as to maintain China’s political security and social stability"

Note the qualifiers have been removed in the new formulation.

On Taiwan:

"We make no promise to renounce the use of force, & reserve the option of taking all necessary measures. This is by no means targeted at our compatriots in Taiwan, but at the interference of external forces and...“Taiwan independence” separatists.

WP admits, for the first time, what is crystal clear to the world: "By sailing ships and flying aircraft around Taiwan, [China's] armed forces send a stern warning to the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces."

WP again frames China's national defense strategy as peaceful, and military modernisation as non-threatening. The idea is that China, because of its historical experience, will "Never Seeking Hegemony, Expansion or Spheres of Influence". Pure rhetoric, but perhaps how BJ sees it.

Contrasting to US' pursuit of alliances, "China advocates partnerships rather than alliances and does not join any military bloc."

Again: "History proves and will continue to prove that China will never follow the beaten track of big powers in seeking hegemony."

No change in pronounced nuclear strategy and policy, with continued focus on no first use, minimal level of nuclear capabilities required, nuclear self-defense and assured retaliation.

WP re-emphasise goals of military modernisation:

• achieve mechanization by the year 2020 w/ significantly enhanced informationization & strategic capabilities
• basically complete the modernization of national defense by 2035; and
• world-class forces by 2050

A clear statement about the role of PLA vis-a-vis China's overseas interests:

"One of the missions of China’s armed forces is to effectively protect the security and legitimate rights and interests of overseas Chinese people, organizations and institutions."

@chinascio Yes, this thread is incomplete and that displeases me. I got a little tired with typing, so here is a podcast @onchinapod on the new white paper:

https://twitter.com/adam_ni/status/1153935944472547328

@chinascio @onchinapod Here is the breakdown and timings of the sections:

I. Int Sec Situation (to 14 mins)
II. Defense Policy (14-26 mins)
III. Missions & Tasks of China’s Armed Forces (26-34mins)
IV. Military reform (34-44 mins)
V. Defense Exp (44-48 mins)
VI. Community w/ a Shared Future (48m)