1/ Thread w/serious question at the end...Bernie supporters have every right & reason to insist candidates should 'earn their vote.' It sucks as a progressive/leftist to be the ones who always have to hold our noses & vote for compromised candidates. AND something else is true...
2/ ...first, most Americans (voters and current non voters) aren't leftists or that progressive. I wish they were but they're not. Most possess a mix of beliefs. Which means elections involve getting what you can, given this political reality re: the electorate, and then...
3/ ...building support for that more progressive politics principally outside of the realm of elections, so that that reality changes over time. That's what we have to do 364 days a year, not on Election Day, per se. Another thing is also true, which must be considered...
4/ ...every other voter also thinks (understandably) that candidates should earn THEIR votes too. So from a strategic perspective, the ONLY question is, how sure are we that there are more Bernie voters who won't vote for others than others who simply won't vote for Bernie...
5/ you don't know the answer to that question and neither do I. But it's the only one that matters, specifically in key states. Because a candidate cannot be expected to earn your leftist vote by moving significantly left IF the data shows they would lose more than they gain..
6/ ...to ask or expect them to do so would be to say, "you should perform political suicide to earn MY VOTE, while ignoring what you need to do to win the votes of others, where those others outnumber me..." No one will or should be expected to do this...
7/ So while some of Bernie's base can threaten not to vote for anyone but him (which may or may not be a real threat), they must remember, if there are more people who won't vote FOR Bernie, than there are folk like you, it would be absurd for voters 2 give Bernie the nom, BUT...
8/ ...if there are more folks who won't vote for anyone but Bernie than there are others who would vote for anyone EXCEPT him, it would be just as absurd for voters to give anyone BUT Bernie the nomination...
9/ ...The challenge is, can we predict this accurately, given the built-in incentive for both types to lie about what they'd do if they got Bernie/anyone but Bernie? After all, saying you wouldn't cross over is a way to hold others hostage, in the hopes of getting your way..
10/ ...I am genuinely curious if anyone knows an accurate way to predict this or gauge it, since vague Twitter posturing about the matter (or, on the other side, weird Chris Matthews rants and Donny Deutsch meanderings) don't predict much...
11/ ...and has any of that been explored specifically in PA, WI, MI, FL, AZ, since those will make the difference? National polls mean nothing, and state polls that just show matchups but don't do cross-tabs that ask questions about cross-over willingness don't help much either..
12/ Please note, before folks pile on with attacks, I am NOT saying here that Bernie would be a bad nominee. He might be the best option, not only ideologically but strategically. I don't know. But the only way to know is to know the answers to the questions I pose above...
13/ And I have seen nothing concrete in that regard. Just lefties saying Bernie or Vest, Never (fill in the blank), etc., or anti-Bernie folks saying Never Bernie, etc. Aside from anecdotal posturing, is there any tangible evidence of how this would shake out?
