We've already pumped enough CO2 into the atmosphere to hit 3.2C, at which point ecosystems, most species & organised human society all crash.
If CO2 is emitted close to today's rate for another 66 months, we'll hit 2C rapidly (2030s), making 3.2C by 2060-90 disturbingly likely.
If CO2 is emitted close to today's rate for another 66 months, we'll hit 2C rapidly (2030s), making 3.2C by 2060-90 disturbingly likely.
Vast areas of the planet will become desert at 3.2C with major forests (like the world's rainforests), corals, mangroves, etc collapsing and dying. Hard to imagine human society remaining unscathed. Most species struggle to adapt/move for survival.
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So many targets for staying below 2C have been missed.
And what about a plan for ending the destruction of habitats (deforestation, trawling, mining etc)?
Keeping below 2.5C will be no good if ecosystems/species are being wrecked by overconsumption etc.
And what about a plan for ending the destruction of habitats (deforestation, trawling, mining etc)?
Keeping below 2.5C will be no good if ecosystems/species are being wrecked by overconsumption etc.
A large number of the new IPCC climate models show higher CO2 sensitivity and 2C by 2039 as locked in.
If emissions are still high in 2027 it seems unlikely they'll drop to near zero quickly enough to avoid 3C soon after 2060 (non-linear change possible!).
If emissions are still high in 2027 it seems unlikely they'll drop to near zero quickly enough to avoid 3C soon after 2060 (non-linear change possible!).
