Thread by @SamCoatesSky

Extensive and credible @LordAshcroft report into where Labour went wrong at the last election. Similar to his 2005 “Smell the Coffee” exercise on the Tories

What’s striking is the difference in diagnosis of Labour *members* - who choose the next leader - and former Labour voters

I suspect some Labour members will see these questions by @LordAshcroft as unfair. They aren’t: they are part of having a grown up and honest conversation about the worst election defeat since WW2.

Tories in 2005 thought voters got it wrong too by electing Blair for a 3rd time

Slide after slide by @LordAshcroft suggests that Labour *members* - as opposed to current and former voters - think that if Brexit just goes away they’d be on the path to power again

Labour members think that there was more good than bad about the Jeremy Corbyn leadership. The challenge for leadership candidates is that the county doesn’t agree

This @LordAshcroft suggests the county is not as Labour members would wish it to be

Labour *can* win again - but only if it changes significantly. This is something that other @LordAshcroft slides suggest members will find difficult

The key dilemma for Labour: how important is winning.

Look at the split between Labour members who are supporters and those who are opponents of Jeremy Corbyn

Some @LordAshcroft raw materials:
- Labour membership data tables lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/upl…
- Full report lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/upl…

Others disagree with the conclusions of @LordAshcroft polling. Andrew Murray, who helped Jeremy Corbyn, has just published an essay in the latest Tribune magazine. Not online, I think