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A bit of #rstats #ggplot mapping today:

How Sinn Féin surged to win the popular vote in the Irish general election ft.com/content/26a7a7…
Here’s the whole thing in four blocks of #rstats code:

1) Scrape the results by looping through constituency pages, finding the results tables for 2020 and extracting the first preference vote numbers
2) Unzip and read in a constituency boundaries shapefile, join that to the results data
3) Add in geographical context: unzip and read in
• List of notable towns & cities in Ireland
• The outlines of the whole island of Ireland
4) Plot the whole thing: layering island first, then constituencies, then city points, then city labels
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: inspired by @p_surridge & @olhe, I looked at how the class gradient in British politics has been weakening.

Labour's loss of the working class is not just a recent Brexit-triggered phenomenon. They've slowly been losing ground to the Tories with this group for decades.
Some notes:
1) Gonna look at other shifting gradients too, e.g education & age.
2) The measure used to define working class is share of people in routine and semi-routine jobs. This measure was revised between the 2001 and 2011 censuses, hence the changed horizontal distribution.
And to those asking about the ecological fallacy, this trend — the weakening of an initially strong link between class and support for Labour vs Tories — is also very well established at the individual level
Read 4 tweets
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: our full story is now out analysing what drove the Tories’ victory ft.com/content/bc09b7…

Chart thread:

1/ The size of the Tory majority was a shock. The Tories swept up 58 seats in England & Wales, of which 54 came from Labour. The "red wall" proved very fragile.
2/ As a result, Labour were left with just 202 seats, their lowest total since 1935.
3/ Why did it happen? Multiple factors and it’ll take time to fully tease them apart, but this appears to have been a case of working class turning their backs on Labour.
• This is a continuation of a trend, not a new thing
• Brexit played a part
• But so did dislike of Corbyn
Read 9 tweets
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: @IpsosMORI political monitor is out, giving us final pre-election figures for leader approval:
• Corbyn remains the most unpopular major party leader going into an election since data was first recorded
• Taken together, these two are the most unpopular pairing we’ve seen
@IpsosMORI We can also take a look at @YouGov’s more granular time series to see how things are moving in the final week:
• Corbyn is certainly trending up, but still lags more than 20 points behind his 2017 numbers at the same stage
• Johnson now broadly where May was at the same stage
@IpsosMORI @YouGov Voters are historically unimpressed with these leaders, but negative partisanship is likely to put Johnson back into number 10.

Numerous surveys suggest it may be anti-Corbyn sentiment over and above pro-Johnson feelings or Brexit attitudes that determine events on Thursday.
Read 3 tweets

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Robert Noerr
@NoerrRobert
THREAD:

1/Impeachment testimony witness George Kent testified today. He found Trumps request for an investigation into Burisma and 2016 election interference to be very troubling.

This is an important witness to the Democrats because he is a supposed expert on the Ukraine,
2/ and someone who has been working with them as a bureaucrat from some time.

The problem is, George Kent is not an unbiased expert as is being portrayed. He actual is a person who has a lot of incentive to not want to see an investigation into 2016 election interference.
3/ Kent testified about a lot, but I want to focus on his testimony about 2016 election interference from the Ukraine.

Kent claims there is no evidence of this interference from Ukraine. That is a lie. Either he is covering up that evidence, or he is incredibly inept.
Read 26 tweets
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Sebastian Payne
@SebastianEPayne
💥Exclusive: Tory coffers ‘flush’ with cash for election this year - thanks to “love" of Boris and fear of Corbyn.

“We’ve rapidly turned it around from the May era. We’re ready to fight an election"

From yours truly, @DanielThomasLDN
and @patrickjenkins_ ft.com/content/4e4537…
@DanielThomasLDN @patrickjenkins_ Tory donor: “He’s bloody good at a bit of tub thumping at fundraising dinners. Theresa May was incompetent and reprehensible in every way and she was hopeless at fundraising. A lot of the old Cameron donors, even former Remainers like me, are supportive”

ft.com/content/4e4537…
John Griffin, founder of Addison Lee, told the FT he had “donated very significant sums” and continues to be a “leading contributor”

“I back the prime minister on leaving the EU on or before 31 October and his call to hold a general election.

ft.com/content/4e4537…
Read 5 tweets
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Simon Wardley #EEA
@swardley
X : What's happening in UK?
Me : Nothing.
X : Protests?
Me : A bunch of people complaining about the influx of pigeons ... "stop the coo" etc?
X : Political protests?
Me : A bunch of people helping Dominic's play?
X : Are you going to be sensible?
Me : No, I'd hate to be alone.
X : Aren't you outraged?
Me : That's the point. You're supposed to get outraged. Then you look like the outraged. What's needed is not outrage but firm, solid action i.e. support Labour's proposal.
X : That's not going to happen.
Me : Then get used to a new Withdrawal Agreement.
X : Why a new Withdrawal agreement?
Me : What do you think is the point to prorogue Parliament? A new session, a drip feed of new "voter friendly" announcements and a new, ever so slightly modified WA?
X : Parliament won't vote for it.
Me : After going on protests about no deal?
Read 180 tweets
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Financial Times
@FinancialTimes
Today is day three of Brexit votes this week and here’s what’s going to happen:
- First, MPs are voting on four amendments
- Then they’ll vote on the main motion put down by the government to delay Brexit
ft.com/content/5605c7…
Here’s what the four amendments are:
- To have a second referendum
- To vote if parliament will take control of Brexit from the government
- To vote to delay Brexit and debate alternatives
- To vote whether to prevent a third vote on Theresa May’s deal
ft.com/content/5605c7…
The first of the amendments has already been voted on, with parliament rejecting a second Brexit referendum by 85 to 334 votes.
ft.com/content/5605c7…
Read 9 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *U.S. WAITING TO HEAR FROM #CHINA ON TRADE DEAL, KUDLOW SAYS - BBG
*KUDLOW EXPECTS U.S.-CHINA MEETING IN MARCH IN MAR-A-LAGO
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🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #CHINA WOULD HAVE TO NOTE ANY FX INTERVENTION UNDER DEAL: KUDLOW - BBG
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *MNUCHIN SAYS #CHINA #TRADE TALKS INCLUDE 150-PAGE DOCUMENT - BBG
Read 819 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇮🇷 #Canada arrests #Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Vancouver – The Globe and Mail
theglobeandmail.com/canada/article…
A gauge of #technology shares on the MSCI #Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 3 percent before paring some losses - Bloomberg
🇺🇸 #SPX ⬇ as much as 1.9% from Tuesday’s close, before paring some losses. Selling pressure early in the session was so intense that it forced CME Group to intermittently pause trading, according to a spokesperson for the exchange - Bloomberg
*Link: bloom.bg/2BTw5DN
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