Lots of ridicule around idea of post-Brexit "Global Britain". But is @vonderleyen & @EmmanuelMacron idea of a "Geopolitical Europe" any more credible? Important week in Bxl as EU leaders gather to discuss EU budget. Will they put their money where their mouth is? Doubt it. Thread
First point is that it's largely an inward looking debate. The "frugal-4" are isolated. They want to reduce amount they pay into budget (no more than 1.00% of EU27GNI) & secure a rebate. But Germany is softer ft.com/content/7faae6… via @financialtimes
Berlin's only condition is a limit of 1% of GNI; that cd be 1.09% in practice. The frugal-4 also can't hide behind UK any longer, which used to be this group's most hawkish member. On opposite side, a group of 15 "cohesion" states are resisting any cuts in amounts they receive 3/
Senior officials think most likely landing zone is probs close to what Finns proposed under their presidency last year—somewhere between 1.06-1.08% of EU27 GNI. The EP's 1.3% demand is described by some as a “virtual reality” 4/
Besides these competing perspectives, there's a swathe of other issues & interests to manage in order for there to be a deal. 1) What should EU do about rule of law violators? 2) What should EU do about deficit/debt violators? 3) What to do about question of “own resources?” 5/
(Which relates to how much of EU budget should be financed by national treasuries vs EU revenues from, for example, trade and customs policies). The EP is v keen to develop the latter & these MEP's have more weight (or think they do) 6/
Besides the cursory nod for need for EU budget to help fund Union's geopolitical goals - a mix of climate, trade, tech & defence ambition, as we can see, the drivers of budget negotiations & policy are largely defensive & internal looking 7/
Berlin is perhaps an outlier. It wants to free up its presidency of EU in second half of year to focus on important external questions: EU-China summit, a deal on migration & UK-EU trade talks (rightly recognising that window to do deal lies between July-Oct, not before/after) 8/
But this only indirectly relevant to the EU's geopolitical mantra; a desire to free up political & policy space to focus on EU's external agenda in second half of this year - not significantly increasing Berlin's contribution to EU budget to fund new geopolitical priorities 9/
It's true that a deal on EU budget is a prerequisite for agreement on 2050 EU carbon neutrality goal - & the Green Deal is the signature meta project of the vdL @EU_Commission. But even here, there's a slightly nasty, bribe/blackmail-like dimension to debate 10/
With Poland holding out to get as much cash as it can to get on board with EU's 2050 (& yet to be negotiated 2030) target (Warsaw has been promised €2bn from a new “Just Transition Fund”- this money will flow from budget once it's agreed) 11/
Is deal possible? Yes, but again focussed on internal factors. Member states could make an additional contribution to EU budget, based on their volume of non-recyclable plastics. Calls for an EU-wide corporate tax are again surfacing, but this is v unlikely 12/
Another is to keep revenues that are generated by EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme but go to national treasuries at the EU-level. But this will also be a hard pill for EU capitals to swallow 13/
So although timing of budget deal remains unclear, it's clear that when there is agreement, internal politics & interests - not external goals - will have been most important driver of outcome 14/
Of course most know this. But what does it do to EU's credibility, as Union tries to develop its geopoltiical voice, & fashion a way between the US & China? Was ambition at @MunSecConf hot air? Is ambition of @vonderleyen over before its begun? Or do €€€ not matter? ENDS
