So we're leaving today. The UK now has a Govt whose ONLY yardstick will be the time it takes to do the trade deal. EVERYTHING will be subordinate to that. And the EU that frankly sees the whole process as a big pain in its ass. Thread on how I see things after chats w both sides
EU will publish its mandate on Monday. It won't have the narrow focus that some in Bxl wanted; instead it will speak to litany of issues that the member states care about - trade/LPF; fish; aviation; transport; internal/external security; foreign policy & much else besides 1/
As I've tweeted before, the risk of a broad mandate is that it creates greater scope for issue linkage -
so a zero tariff/zero quota access deal gets linked not just to progress on LPF & fish, but other (more peripheral) issues that bother EU capitals too 2/
so a zero tariff/zero quota access deal gets linked not just to progress on LPF & fish, but other (more peripheral) issues that bother EU capitals too 2/
Some in EU reject the risk. Argue negotiations will prioritise themselves. That is probs right. Indeed, the 10-11 work streams that @MichelBarnier envisages will have to be narrowed down at some point. June European Council will probs be a reckoning moment for EU leaders 3/
But this inevitable course correction won't be easy & could have been avoided had mandate focussed on goods & governance at start. EU has proposed 4 negotiating rounds; 3 weeks each. This has been rejected by UK. Bc Govt thinks this much time isn't necessary? Or bc it isnt ready?
Imagine @BorisJohnson speech on Monday will be rather vague. Will point to Canada. Some on EU side even muse that Govt believes it can "cut and paste" from Canada text. But EU has been clear; the framework might be FTA/Canada, but the details - & demands - will be different 5/
Little progress is likely in first half of year. This not least as EU's political focus & priorities will be elsewhere - MFF; digitization launch; then migration; negotiations over 2030 interim climate goals; EU trade tensions (WTO; US; China). UK is important but not a priority
Deal will be done in July-Oct. Officials talk of an intense 10-12 week window in second half of year. Germany believes this will become issue of its Presidency. Could be helpful, given Berlin's pragmatism throughout Brexit, but that'll be tempered by Merkel's overall weakness 7/
So a narrow FTA, wrapped in an AA of some kind, ensuring one governance framework for all various chapters of co-operation. EU-only elements provisionally applied by year-end; & some mechanism that enables UK & EU to keep talking in future on all the outstanding bits 8/
Some senior EU officials talk of another de facto transition, outside of CU & SM, where two sides remain aligned for a few years, but then UK slowly diverges, to minimise disruption. A long time, then, before a new equilibrium will be reached for both sides 9/
It's clear to both @BorisJohnson & @vonderleyen that it's in neither of their interests to go over a cliff. I suspect they won't. But accidents do happen & a f*** up can't be totally discounted. As the hours count down to 11pm, both sides are about to enter a brave new world ENDS
