So what does the Supreme Court ruling mean for #Brexit talks? As ever during the rollercoaster ride of UK domestic politics, the European Commission refuses to comment publicly on “UK internal matters” .. however hard journalists push /1
Privately the court ruling has been described to me by EU sources as « an embarrassment » and « a humiliation » for the PM but the official EU position remains that under EU law, its negotiating partner is HMG, whoever is at its helm. Right now that remains Boris Johnson /2
The Eu insists it remains open for “technical discussions”’with the UK on renegotiating Brexit deal despite Supreme Court ruling .. though in same breath EU diplomats add there’s nothing really to negotiate since, they say, the Johnson gov has yet to produce realist proposals /3
EU diplomats say their key question when it comes to Brexit remains the same despite today’s ruling and that is: « Would a new deal definitely pass through Parliament? » They still don’t have an answer, they say. This will affect EU willingness to make compromises /4
Although EU leaders say they are « open » to another Brexit extension, such is the impatience with the #Brexit process, they would love a deal to be found next month but chances aren’t deemed to be high amongst EU leaders /5
Words of a diplomat from a country traditionally close to UK following the Supreme Court ruling: « The prospects of an October deal already weren’t good. They’re now complicated further by UK domestic political issues. » /6
My EU contacts dismiss as unrealistic the idea that a deal could be agreed by mid October as PM wants. They say maybe by the 31 October Brexit deadline but insist that first the Johnson government must table legally operable solutions to replace backstop... /7
They argue current UK proposals may be a start. But they say even the UK proposal to allow NIreland to align with rest of EU on food safety lacks the technical detail to be taken seriously (see Michel Barnier yesterday, Friday, everyday at the moment..) /8
Pushback from journalists and/or UK gov that EU has to compromise too is rejected at this stage in Brussels. “Before anyone in EU thinks of compromise, they needs to see realistic UK proposals,” is the stock answer /9
As for assertions by Dominic Raab and others that the EU always blinks at 5 to midnight, EU contacts say this shows misunderstanding of how EU works. One EU diplomat: “We only compromise when that compromise doesn’t cause us great harm”. Brussels believes it couldn’t protect /10
The single market, NIreland peace process or memberstate Ireland if it agreed to current UK proposals on how to replace the backstop + EU sources claim the 2 sides are still too far apart for it to make sense to “go into a tunnel”’of intense negotiations with media blackout /11
EU diplomats admit that a new #Brexit extension would likely take the pressure off both sides to make compromises necessary to agree a new deal but bottom line is they’re unsure PM is willing to make Brexit compromises anyway if he knows he’s heading into a general election /12
