1/
Many people have failed to grasp some of the unintended consequences of the new £25 600 post brexit threshold salary rule for EU workers.
A thread.
theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/f…
Many people have failed to grasp some of the unintended consequences of the new £25 600 post brexit threshold salary rule for EU workers.
A thread.
theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/f…
2/
The point system is set up to ensure everyone needs an appropriate skill job offer & speaks English but then just needs20points to get over the line. Now as most people & jobs are not PhD STEM that means getting 1 of 2 things:
1. Threshold salary
2. Job in shortage sector
The point system is set up to ensure everyone needs an appropriate skill job offer & speaks English but then just needs20points to get over the line. Now as most people & jobs are not PhD STEM that means getting 1 of 2 things:
1. Threshold salary
2. Job in shortage sector
3/
The salary threshold is set at national level so it’s *relatively* modest in London/SE but quite prosperous in rest of UK, & positively aspirational comfortable middle class in poorer regions.
What does this mean?
The salary threshold is set at national level so it’s *relatively* modest in London/SE but quite prosperous in rest of UK, & positively aspirational comfortable middle class in poorer regions.
What does this mean?
4/
This means a Brexit that came about partially thru the prosperous London / poorer regions divide will massively accelerate & deepen these differences.
It should be relatively easy for London employers to meet the threshold in many - even modest skilled - jobs. In rUK not so.
This means a Brexit that came about partially thru the prosperous London / poorer regions divide will massively accelerate & deepen these differences.
It should be relatively easy for London employers to meet the threshold in many - even modest skilled - jobs. In rUK not so.
5/
So London - you can breath out - it’ll be business as usual. The clever young Europeans will continue to flock there - from IT engineers, banking grads to cool dude waiters.
But Northern England or Wales - forget it. The threshold is too high.
So business - why move there?
So London - you can breath out - it’ll be business as usual. The clever young Europeans will continue to flock there - from IT engineers, banking grads to cool dude waiters.
But Northern England or Wales - forget it. The threshold is too high.
So business - why move there?
6/
& readers I told you this was coming, remember.
London was never going to be sacrificed for Brexit. So think about what this means. This system creates a govt backed, red tape deep incentive for both employers & (EU) employees not to move to poorer regions.
& readers I told you this was coming, remember.
London was never going to be sacrificed for Brexit. So think about what this means. This system creates a govt backed, red tape deep incentive for both employers & (EU) employees not to move to poorer regions.
7/
Now you make think this is small fry. It isn’t.
Regions grow not as in the past thru coal deposits or ports but thru clusters of innovation, education & entrepreneurship - in other words people.
So now you’re designing a system to decrease them in the very places needed.
Now you make think this is small fry. It isn’t.
Regions grow not as in the past thru coal deposits or ports but thru clusters of innovation, education & entrepreneurship - in other words people.
So now you’re designing a system to decrease them in the very places needed.
8/
The next paradox.
This system is likely to increase wages for foreigners.
A company that has trouble recruiting will have an incentive to bump up wages over threshold to ensure an EUer gets a permit.
This is likely to increase differentials btwn UK & EUers.
The next paradox.
This system is likely to increase wages for foreigners.
A company that has trouble recruiting will have an incentive to bump up wages over threshold to ensure an EUer gets a permit.
This is likely to increase differentials btwn UK & EUers.
9/
Now you may think that will be marginal - look at Australia!
But Oz is different costs to travel/interview low etc. There’s no London in Oz that has equivalent of EU nationals.
So it’s likely employers will simply over compensate EUers relative to Brits to meet recruitment.
Now you may think that will be marginal - look at Australia!
But Oz is different costs to travel/interview low etc. There’s no London in Oz that has equivalent of EU nationals.
So it’s likely employers will simply over compensate EUers relative to Brits to meet recruitment.
10/
Next paradox - red tape.
Red tape always favours big firms over small. They have depts to deal with this stuff. In small companies it’s Janice - she doesn’t know the rules because she’s too busy dealing with her 15 other jobs.
So small firms will miss out relative to big.
Next paradox - red tape.
Red tape always favours big firms over small. They have depts to deal with this stuff. In small companies it’s Janice - she doesn’t know the rules because she’s too busy dealing with her 15 other jobs.
So small firms will miss out relative to big.
11/
Next paradox - job security for foreigners!
Govt has ruled out self employed EUers (polish plumbers!) coming to UK.
But these are highly sought after - so I predict a flux of UK businesses (possibly polish owned?) offering threshold contracts to EUers with work-incentives.
Next paradox - job security for foreigners!
Govt has ruled out self employed EUers (polish plumbers!) coming to UK.
But these are highly sought after - so I predict a flux of UK businesses (possibly polish owned?) offering threshold contracts to EUers with work-incentives.
12/
Next paradox - better public services for Londoners!
As luck would have it the threshold salary is set a bit higher than nurses, teachers etc salaries but below these plus London weighting.
You do the maths..
Next paradox - better public services for Londoners!
As luck would have it the threshold salary is set a bit higher than nurses, teachers etc salaries but below these plus London weighting.
You do the maths..
13/
Next paradox - EUers with pre/& settled status have incentive to hold on to low paying jobs.
From US exp, once you tighten controls Mexicans inside US don’t take chances of returning to Mexico. The same would happen with Low paid EUers - once inside UK bigger risk to leave.
Next paradox - EUers with pre/& settled status have incentive to hold on to low paying jobs.
From US exp, once you tighten controls Mexicans inside US don’t take chances of returning to Mexico. The same would happen with Low paid EUers - once inside UK bigger risk to leave.
14/
Next paradox - altho perhaps deliberate - this policy will have the effect of shepherding poorer Brits from poorer regions to poorer paid jobs at a time when these regions are stagnating..
In other words....
Next paradox - altho perhaps deliberate - this policy will have the effect of shepherding poorer Brits from poorer regions to poorer paid jobs at a time when these regions are stagnating..
In other words....
15/
A brexit built on resentment of London/SE richer younger multicultural regions & poorer regions will accelerate the cause, attributes, wealth divide btwn the two.
While leaving London & skilled better off & as international as ever.
Trebles around Maria & Pierre!
/ends
A brexit built on resentment of London/SE richer younger multicultural regions & poorer regions will accelerate the cause, attributes, wealth divide btwn the two.
While leaving London & skilled better off & as international as ever.
Trebles around Maria & Pierre!
/ends
ADDENDUM
Could’ve written 20 more unintended effects of this insanity - but perhaps most neglected is cultural.
Exactly those places that need more diversity, youth, new ideas - likely to become older, less diverse & more out of mainstream economy.
Exactly what caused Brexit..
Could’ve written 20 more unintended effects of this insanity - but perhaps most neglected is cultural.
Exactly those places that need more diversity, youth, new ideas - likely to become older, less diverse & more out of mainstream economy.
Exactly what caused Brexit..
ADD 1/
...& I’ll just leave this here - the whole policy seems designed to neither raise British economy nor British born workers’ wages - while safeguarding high paying jobs & areas for Europeans...
...& I’ll just leave this here - the whole policy seems designed to neither raise British economy nor British born workers’ wages - while safeguarding high paying jobs & areas for Europeans...
