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So if u use the official data released by China, then u see that the death/confirm ratio continues to rise to now 3% 😬 & the death/recovered still high at 12.2%
People are like, what's HK doing right that South Korea isn't? Well, I think it's the weather really.

South Korea 7c
Hong Kong 18c

This virus loves 5-10c!!! So hence Southeast Asia less of a concern (note that Northern Vietnam has more cases than Southern for the same reason)
Look at the cases above the random line I drew - they are much more explosive in places where this virus thrives 🦠🦠 (5-10c is where they get super active according to experts) & so lower than this u get it somewhat inactivated. Hence Southeast Asia not as bad!!!
People are like, Singapore is a massive HOLE in your cold theory. Well, well, well, Singapore loves its air conditioning & most Singaporeans chill inside air conditioned places. Two latest cases are people linked to churches (air conditioned below 30c prolly!)

🤷🏻‍♀️🤷🏻‍♀️🤷🏻‍♀️Trying here!
Check this out: my cold theory is actually backed up by studies. Scientists say hat low temp further increase virus lifespan!!! True story. So, hmm, hot & dry holidays wanted!!!

sciencealert.com/study-shows-ju…
Cold theory FX trade intact (OK losers such as AUD THB are b/c they are too dependent on China via commodity or tourism):

IDR - 28c
PHP- 30c
VND- 31c in HCMC & Hanoi is 20c so short Hanoi vs HCMC haha
INR - 25c in Mumbai

🤗
FX that will perform well in corona virus, limited impact:

*China decline in demand (Philippines, Indonesia, India)
*Supply chain (Philippines, Indonesia, India)
*Tourism ((Philippines, Indonesia, India)
*Infection onshore - weather theory (Philippines, Indonesia, India) 🤷🏻‍♀️🤗🌞
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More from @Trinhnomics see all

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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
Equities aren’t divorced from earnings after all. If China powers the world (its demand & manu) then by that logic it being partially shutdown by 1 month (Sunday is 23 Feb & Wuhan shutdown 23 Jan) is going to show up in balance sheets.
What about March? April? 1/12 or 1/6 or 1/4?
Forgot to mention services too (tourism, education etc demand).
Just think about the daily data that people collect to gauge activities (basically showing railway passenger, real estate sales, auto at ~20%or -80% & that goes on for 1 month; some less like Apple -40 to -50) & then see virus spreading to SK &JP. How can this not impact earnings
Read 5 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
Indonesia decision soon - likely a cut of 25bps as real rates too high (current 5% exp 4.75%). CPI slowed to 2.7%YoY & IDR the best performing Asian FX ytd. Of course, growth picture's not good - exports & imports contracting. Moreover, the virus = less tourism receipt + exports
Chinese tourist exposure as a share of GDP is roughly 1.4% per year so the ban on China is going to impact growth, which has been trending lower before this so this will hurt.
Note that the tourism exposure alone is large for Southeast Asia w/ Thailand leading & one of the key reasons for baht weakness.

We also looked beyond tourism into supply chain + Chinese demand impact in this piece below 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻:

carnegieendowment.org/2020/02/13/eco…
Read 6 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
South Korea reports 31 more cases bringing total to 82 😬🇰🇷 & as expected the 1-yr LPR rate is slashed by 10bps & 5-yr only 5bps to 4.75%.

Rates going lower in China despite rising CPI & that means the gov is more worried about growth 🇨🇳👈🏻
Note that we still don't have updates from China for 19 Feb but the fatality rate based on the official figure is rising everyday to close to 3%. What is key is the spread of the virus outside of China & the ratio of people confirmed/serious critical or death.

HK is 6/65 or 9%
Another thing people watch for is NOT outside Hubei confirmation but OUTSIDE CHINA & the cases for Japan & South Korea are rising. To be fair, most of the cases are from this cruise - 621 infected out of 3711 or 21% infection rate 😬😬😬
Read 31 tweets

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Adam Ni
@adam_ni
Thread on China's new defense white paper, China's National Defense in the New Era. This WP has just been released by the @chinascio. Press conference is happening now.

Thanks to you know who you are.

#China #PLA
@chinascio WP starts off with Section 1 looking at the "International Security Situation", highlighting that the world is undergoing changes "unseen in a century" with "prominent destabilizing factors and uncertainties in international security".

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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
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Christophe Barraud🛢
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🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
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