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Indonesia decision soon - likely a cut of 25bps as real rates too high (current 5% exp 4.75%). CPI slowed to 2.7%YoY & IDR the best performing Asian FX ytd. Of course, growth picture's not good - exports & imports contracting. Moreover, the virus = less tourism receipt + exports
Chinese tourist exposure as a share of GDP is roughly 1.4% per year so the ban on China is going to impact growth, which has been trending lower before this so this will hurt.
Note that the tourism exposure alone is large for Southeast Asia w/ Thailand leading & one of the key reasons for baht weakness.

We also looked beyond tourism into supply chain + Chinese demand impact in this piece below 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻:

carnegieendowment.org/2020/02/13/eco…
Indonesia slashed rates by 25bps to 4.75% as expected; GDP lowered to 5-5.4% & loan growth lowered as well to 10.12%.

Note that December loan growth only 6.1%

🇮🇩✂️🕊️🕊️🕊️
Indonesia has been stuck in the slow track since 2013 w/ growth rates trending flat at 5% (expectation for 2020 is 5 to 5.4% & w/ the tourism impact, will likely be on the lower end).

Indonesia needs the omnibus law & a refresh of policy as clearly the old formula not working.
And yes, w/ this cut, which follows many cuts (MAS easing guidance, BOT cut, PBOC cut etc), the USD is KING 👑

🙇🏻‍♀️🙇🏻‍♀️🙇🏻‍♀️

DXY higher at 99.85 😬😬😬
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
So if u use the official data released by China, then u see that the death/confirm ratio continues to rise to now 3% 😬 & the death/recovered still high at 12.2%
People are like, what's HK doing right that South Korea isn't? Well, I think it's the weather really.

South Korea 7c
Hong Kong 18c

This virus loves 5-10c!!! So hence Southeast Asia less of a concern (note that Northern Vietnam has more cases than Southern for the same reason)
Look at the cases above the random line I drew - they are much more explosive in places where this virus thrives 🦠🦠 (5-10c is where they get super active according to experts) & so lower than this u get it somewhat inactivated. Hence Southeast Asia not as bad!!!
Read 7 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
South Korea reports 31 more cases bringing total to 82 😬🇰🇷 & as expected the 1-yr LPR rate is slashed by 10bps & 5-yr only 5bps to 4.75%.

Rates going lower in China despite rising CPI & that means the gov is more worried about growth 🇨🇳👈🏻
Note that we still don't have updates from China for 19 Feb but the fatality rate based on the official figure is rising everyday to close to 3%. What is key is the spread of the virus outside of China & the ratio of people confirmed/serious critical or death.

HK is 6/65 or 9%
Another thing people watch for is NOT outside Hubei confirmation but OUTSIDE CHINA & the cases for Japan & South Korea are rising. To be fair, most of the cases are from this cruise - 621 infected out of 3711 or 21% infection rate 😬😬😬
Read 31 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
The PBOC sets the CNY fix 0.27% weaker vs the USD at 7.0012 (markets allowed to trade in a 2% band) & that makes perfect sense as economic growth outweighs all other consideration in the short-term!
The math for CNY weakness vs USD makes sense. People that say that the PBOC will hold it below 7 just say it b/c they think they understand policy makers but don't forget that:

THINGS ARE EVOLVING & POLICY MANDATES EVOLVE
Recap of Chinese data:

January CPI 5.4% (food inflation on earlier lunar new year & apparently food CPI still going up on higher demand vs supply)

GDP - don't know & don't get monthly data for a while but railway + steel production + real estate sales are down in double digits.
Read 11 tweets

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Hi #fintwit 😎 We are approaching a watershed moment in markets. Final deflationary phase of Kondratiev's winter is about to play out. Huge implications for #EUR, #Gold, #SP500, #DXY etc. I have some new interesting followers - hence something extra in this week's #HZupdates
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David Jensen
@RealDavidJensen
@Halsrethink @RemainSovereign @TFMetals @BullionStar @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @AndrewBellBNN @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble @POTUS @TayTayLLP @ronanmanly @jimiuorio @MoneyMetals @stranahan BRICS nations for years openly discussing trade w/ "parallel" monetary system including gold trade settlement.
Saudi put in place RippleNet alt. to SWIFT that allows bank-to-bank real-time settlement in any medium of trade.
Italy signalling ready to go.
@Halsrethink @RemainSovereign @TFMetals @BullionStar @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @AndrewBellBNN @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble @POTUS @TayTayLLP @ronanmanly @jimiuorio @MoneyMetals @stranahan More to the point - #gold seems to be the focal point of new trade settlement system.

“Fiat money, in extremis, is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted." Alan Greenspan.

realnoevremya.com/articles/2075-…
@Halsrethink @RemainSovereign @TFMetals @BullionStar @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @AndrewBellBNN @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble @POTUS @TayTayLLP @ronanmanly @jimiuorio @MoneyMetals @stranahan When a central banker or economist mentions 'stimulus', they are talking about diluting the currency through debt currency issuance - to create REAL GROWTH.

This is the insanity & silly talk promoted by central bankers globally.

Nobody asks the question.

#centralbanking #gold
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
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- Largest economy
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- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
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#USA
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The next 10 years could result in the below:
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- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
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