Thread by @NahayatT

WOW.

Researchers estimate 18,300 coronavirus cases in #Iran

"We estimated that 18,300 #Coronavirus cases would've had to occur in Iran...in order to observe these 3 internationally exported cases reported..."

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

CONT'D

🔹Feb. 19 - 23: Iran reported its first 43 cases with 8 deaths

🔹3 exported cases originating in Iran suggest underlying burden of disease in that country than is indicated by reported cases

🔹Researchers sought to estimate outbreak size in #Iran

#Coronavirus

CONT'D

🔹Researches sough to estimate this based on known exported case counts & air travel links between Iran and other countries

🔹Also sought to estimate count to anticipate where infections originating in #Iran may spread to next

#Coronavirus

CONT'D

🔹 Researchers assessed interconnectivity between #Iran and other countries using using IATA data

🔹They used methods of Fraser et al. to estimate size of underlying epidemic that would result in cases being observed in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Lebanon, and Canada

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🔹Time at risk estimates based on presumed 6 week epidemic age & length of stay data for visitors to Iran (from UNWTO)
🔹Researchers evaluated relationship between strength of travel links with Iran & destination country rankings on Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index

CONT'D

🔹Researchers estimated that 18,300 (95% confidence interval: 3770 to 53,470) #Coronavirus cases would've had to occur in Iran, assuming an outbreak duration of 1.5 months in the country, in order to observe these 3 internationally exported cases reported

As of Feb. 25

MORE ON THE STUDY

A @UofT_dlsph-led study by following experts:

Ashleigh R. Tuite @AshTuite
Isaac Bogoch @BogochIsaac
Ryan Sherbo
Alexander Watts
David N. Fisman @DFisman
Kamran Khan

@UofT_dlsph @AshTuite @BogochIsaac @DFisman NOTE

**This is a pre-print and not peer reviewed**