WOW.
Researchers estimate 18,300 coronavirus cases in #Iran
"We estimated that 18,300 #Coronavirus cases would've had to occur in Iran...in order to observe these 3 internationally exported cases reported..."
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Researchers estimate 18,300 coronavirus cases in #Iran
"We estimated that 18,300 #Coronavirus cases would've had to occur in Iran...in order to observe these 3 internationally exported cases reported..."
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
CONT'D
🔹Feb. 19 - 23: Iran reported its first 43 cases with 8 deaths
🔹3 exported cases originating in Iran suggest underlying burden of disease in that country than is indicated by reported cases
🔹Researchers sought to estimate outbreak size in #Iran
#Coronavirus
🔹Feb. 19 - 23: Iran reported its first 43 cases with 8 deaths
🔹3 exported cases originating in Iran suggest underlying burden of disease in that country than is indicated by reported cases
🔹Researchers sought to estimate outbreak size in #Iran
#Coronavirus
CONT'D
🔹Researches sough to estimate this based on known exported case counts & air travel links between Iran and other countries
🔹Also sought to estimate count to anticipate where infections originating in #Iran may spread to next
#Coronavirus
🔹Researches sough to estimate this based on known exported case counts & air travel links between Iran and other countries
🔹Also sought to estimate count to anticipate where infections originating in #Iran may spread to next
#Coronavirus
CONT'D
🔹 Researchers assessed interconnectivity between #Iran and other countries using using IATA data
🔹They used methods of Fraser et al. to estimate size of underlying epidemic that would result in cases being observed in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Lebanon, and Canada
🔹 Researchers assessed interconnectivity between #Iran and other countries using using IATA data
🔹They used methods of Fraser et al. to estimate size of underlying epidemic that would result in cases being observed in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Lebanon, and Canada
CONT'D
🔹Time at risk estimates based on presumed 6 week epidemic age & length of stay data for visitors to Iran (from UNWTO)
🔹Researchers evaluated relationship between strength of travel links with Iran & destination country rankings on Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index
🔹Time at risk estimates based on presumed 6 week epidemic age & length of stay data for visitors to Iran (from UNWTO)
🔹Researchers evaluated relationship between strength of travel links with Iran & destination country rankings on Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index
CONT'D
🔹Researchers estimated that 18,300 (95% confidence interval: 3770 to 53,470) #Coronavirus cases would've had to occur in Iran, assuming an outbreak duration of 1.5 months in the country, in order to observe these 3 internationally exported cases reported
As of Feb. 25
🔹Researchers estimated that 18,300 (95% confidence interval: 3770 to 53,470) #Coronavirus cases would've had to occur in Iran, assuming an outbreak duration of 1.5 months in the country, in order to observe these 3 internationally exported cases reported
As of Feb. 25
MORE ON THE STUDY
A @UofT_dlsph-led study by following experts:
Ashleigh R. Tuite @AshTuite
Isaac Bogoch @BogochIsaac
Ryan Sherbo
Alexander Watts
David N. Fisman @DFisman
Kamran Khan
A @UofT_dlsph-led study by following experts:
Ashleigh R. Tuite @AshTuite
Isaac Bogoch @BogochIsaac
Ryan Sherbo
Alexander Watts
David N. Fisman @DFisman
Kamran Khan
