Thread by @tylerisyoung

CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19)
This is a roundup of what I found to be the most interesting & helpful sources on my journey into the void. #Coronavirus #Pandemic #Misinformation #CDC #CPP #WHO

This is for friends & family, but also to raise concern over media censorship & begin a discussion of what are best practices for both traditional & decentralized media outlets. This is a collection of sources to tell a larger story and spark interest.

Very few sources peer reviewed. Some behind paywalls. Some mainstream news. Some International News. Some in other languages (Use chrome). Some Harvard medical Journals. Some unverified. Some factually incorrect. Have some salt with your rice & beans.

All sources found between Jan 26 & Feb 21. A lot can happen in 30 days. I have already lost a few sources, I would apologize, but someone is breaking the links for me. As of today, there have been past reports of the following:

Currently ~6-10% of the worlds population is under a form of Quarantine or travel ban:
abc.net.au/news/2020-02-1…

China has quarantined more than 35 Million people:
washingtonpost.com/health/unprece…

The Novel Coronavirus is possibly airborne with a high infection rate: chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/08/WS…
&
theedgemarkets.com/article/no-con…

20% of those infected will become seriously ill: (numbers check out over period of 2 weeks) Possible updates since)
worldometers.info/coronavirus/

15% fatality rate (when hospitals are overrun with patients) 83% infection rate :
dcclothesline.com/2020/01/26/cor…

15% of closed cases resulted in death:
(not a death rate read more below)
worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Single case of up to 24 day incubation period: ( seen reports of 28 as well)
straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia…

COVID-19 estimated R0 0f 3.8 people (for every one infected, they infect 1-3 more) 8X worse than SARS (dr. Eric Feigl-Ding Harvard) Very concerned:
disrn.com/news/harvard-e…

COVID-19 estimated R0 of 1.4-6.6:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_rep…

SARS R0 was 2-5:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_rep…

SARS upon its containment was calculated to have a 9.6% fatality rate:
( which is possibly different than death rate):
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_ac…

Reported death rate is not so important right now and should not be calculated at this time:
medium.com/swlh/the-repor…

Death rate of flu (influenza+Pneumonia) :
cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/f…
&
kff.org/other/state-in…

New cases coming in slower in epicenter (only to correct numbers in the sketchy direction 2 days later) :
time.com/5772481/china-…

Many Doctors in China are out of test kits:
businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavi…

“Entire Wuhan only given 2000 test kits per day. Many patients turned away without being tested." (Doctors conversation leaked through THE GREAT CHINESE FIREWALL ) of censored information through the internet the Chinese deal with by using VPN’s daily.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1224703084238180352

Test kits being sent out globally are flawed... (or patients are asymptomatic for extended periods of incubation):
nytimes.com/2020/02/12/hea…

Chinese government publicly states the difficulty of confirming cases:
(Chinese)
wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/show…

The people of the internet (reddit) speculate that governments are using test kit "problems" as a way to slow the spread of TRUTHFUL information (positive tests) in order to curb panic mode of general public.

Infection can occur through the eyes:
chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/08/WS…

Virus is living on surfaces up to 9 days:
news-medical.net/news/20200211/…

Possible Cases of re-infection:
insider.com/wuhan-coronavi…

&
scmp.com/news/china/soc…

Cured patient “relapses”
cd.house.ifeng.com/news/2020_02_2…

summary of global hospitals ability to deal wth infections (not great) : GOOGLE SHEET Unconfirmed source. :
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

CDC says that eventually the United States will see “community spread” meaning as widespread as the common cold which infects between 5-20% of the US each yr. :
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…

Chinese doctor (34) who is credited with discovering coronavirus & speaking out about it is prosecuted by the authoritarian government, then dies:
nbcnews.com/news/world/doc…

Multiple negative tests before getting a positive:
breitbart.com/national-secur…

Some claiming China Has been falsifying numbers:
zerohedge.com/economics/how-…
&
express.co.uk/news/world/123…

Genetic diversity among humans results in different infection rates. Death rate higher for Chinese populations for H1N1
“I Chinese population…ten-fold greater than Northern European population…high frequency of rs12252-C in Han Chinese” link.springer.com/article/10.118…

Han Chinese more susceptible to Influenza:
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

Racism begins:
Chinese man murdered after recovery in Russia:
ria.ru/20200220/15649…
&
latimes.com/opinion/story/…

China knew about an outbreak before they claimed to have known,( lost source of doctors reports within china)

China is proven to have lied (or a the very least significantly slowed the release of accurate information) about SARS in the past:
theguardian.com/world/2003/apr…

“China can’t be trusted with coronavirus reporting—SARS is proof”:
thepostmillennial.com/china-cant-be-…

Chinese billionaire makes wild claims about death rate:
ccn.com/billionaire-wh…

Drones spray civilians & towns with unknown disinfectant:
nymag.com/intelligencer/…

CDC Announces it is going to start tests in 5 U.S. Cities amid growing infections outside of China:
Chicago, LA, NY, SF, Seattle. (More will be added later)
nbcnews.com/health/health-…

The spread of cases outside of US is clearly not slowing down (gif graph)
i.imgur.com/WshwBgm.gifv

“Researchers pinpoint facility near Wuhan seafood market as possible ground zero”:
news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…

“Unsanitary open meat market where the infection started” as claimed by China & US officials At first- goes from reddit conspiracy to being backed up by multiple sources, now there just so happens to be a Class iV bio lab nearby... metro.co.uk/2020/01/24/us-…

Biolab^ not 20 miles, but 300 meters... dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…

WHO declares world health emergency: bbc.com/news/world-513…

U.S. Health Services plan to combat pandemics is for the most part “limit economic impact & Social Panic” Because hospitals will otherwise be overrun (like Wuhan) which is seemingly backed up by WHO & CDC actions…

Center for Health security recommendations “ Governments will need to partner with traditional and social media companies to ... [counter] misinformation. This will require developing the ability to flood media with fast, accurate, and consistent information.”

Mainstream news finally allowed to confirm most likely scenario thus far: bat infection from biolab 300m away from "Wet market" washingtonpost.com/health/coronav…

Federal reserve is still maintaining economy as it has been, dumping funds (4 trillion over last 4 months) into the central bank at historically low interest rates.
thestreet.com/investing/fede…

Limit economic impact is understandable, but not at the expense of keeping the public on a blackout (in my opinion) US Federal reserve dumps money into the stock market to keep it afloat (Stocks reach all time high):
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing_m…

China’s stock market begins to crash & US market begins to crash… (0.4%down from all time high last week)
barrons.com/articles/stock…

Chinese infuse market with cash:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Twitter: “twitter will tweak search results to fight coronavirus disinformation:
mashable.com/article/twitte…

Facebook: Announces in press release it will fight disinformation about coronavirus (but not for 2020 political ads apparently…)

Facebook Cancels tech event:
nytimes.com/reuters/2020/0…

nternational organizations should prioritize reducing economic impacts of epidemics and pandemics” insinuaiting that economics should come before health: centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/recom…

Misspellings of hashtag “Coronavirus” trending wold wide while correct spelling is not allowed to trend: (Unverified)

Best known “cure/tretment for the moment” being infusing patients with blood serum from recovered patients with antibodies

Doctor (29) dies despite infusion:
k.sina.cn/article_570519…

Diamond Princess ship infected number keeps growing:

Leader of Cambodia decides to give different cruise ship passengers tour of city instead of quarantine, shakes hands and kisses several passengers upon entry….m.freshnewsasia.com/index.php/en/l…
& video:

https://twitter.com/JordanJones33/status/1228112543274733568?s=19

US ambassador brings family onboard Cambodian ship:
reddit.com/r/China_Flu/co…

Tourist from this Cambodian ship then tests positive for coronavirus… (one so far) :
channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/coro…

MAJOR Concerns of improper quarantine methods. Japan not handling infected diamond princess properly & Japanese infectious disease specialist who was on the boat speaks out as whistleblower & is immediately censored and video taken off youtube/ Facebook/twitter.

Transcript of video detailing the incompetency of quarantine (no separation of green zone from red zone etc.) Here: (no longer, doctor removed, or blatantly censored) (personally have transcript if desired but it’s out there)

When quarantine is broken i.e. uninfected people have opportunity for infection / quarantine must reset ( at least 14 more days) though we know incubation can be up to 24… this “reset” is per CDC instruction,

Japan says it’s not practical to test all 3700 people on ship despite quarantine problems: sankei.com/life/amp/20020…

yet Japan has deiced to release all passengers who “currently test negative” for the virus despite quarantine time period. Ignore CDC reccommdnataion:
japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/1…

2 passengers on ship die (unconfirmed) :

https://twitter.com/YourUntamedDog/status/1229505284076339212

U.S. Say there are “problems” (no explination) with the NEW* coronavirus test kits which they have sent out & that tests from 5 cities mentioned are not yet ready. FDA Authorized the test kits two weeks prior.
politico.com/news/2020/02/2…

Other nations seem to be conducting tests with positive results just fine… why can’t the US test more than 20 patients in a week?

20 tests in a week as of feb 4: Official CDC test page: (#’s updated & have conducted some more tests in the weeks since , but nowhere near over countries numbers, why can’t we figure the tests out?
cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-r…

& discussion of tests / pohoto on reddit:
reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/…

South Korea decides to test everyone with symptoms to as many people as they are able to:
(Korean)
imnews.imbc.com/news/2020/soci…

Iran is testing everyone with symptoms, closing down schools, etc: (OFFICIAL Milirarty (Islamic state) lockdown 2nd country to do so!
(in Iranian)
meteoweb.eu/2020/02/il-cor…

& BBC (on schools in IRAN shut down )
bbc.com/news/world-mid…

Guys saying (feb 7) that protocols regarding air travel are “sufficient” rly?
abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-co…

Harvard states that 60-89% of coronavirus cases are undetected outside of china: (whoops^)
abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-co…

NBC Bay Area reports that “nurses say they’re not so sure hospitals are fully prepared to deal with the growing number of patients.
A national survey of 3,000 nurses shows less than half say their employer has given them enough information on how to respond.

Only 13% (of nurses)^ say there is a plan in place to isolate patients and just 31% say employer has sufficient protective equipment on hand.
“nbcbayarea.com/news/local/nur…

Humboldt county reported Case Feb 20: (been to china, “not community spread” )
humboldtgov.org/CivicAlerts.as…

California now has 16 cases confirmed. Still no CDC tests on suspected cases being done. People online saying ”If you don’t test for it, it doesn’t exist…. Sure, but lack of proof thus far"

14 coronavirus positive patients flown to United States on a plane full of healthy people… against CDC recommendation. :
nypost.com/2020/02/20/cor…

Tokyo cancels major indoor events until mid march.

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1230688312681099264?s=21

Taiwan patients who violate quarantine can serve up to 2 yrs in prison:
taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3878929

China: still communist. Still “confusing” new confirmed case numbers.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230719674326777856

Korean person’s account from Seoul. “There has been a big jump(almost threefold) in confirmed cases during the past 24 hours.The KCDC made a very big mistake of only testing those who have traveled abroad, or have been in contact with those who were previously infected.....

I know people who wanted to get tested and got turned away because they didn't meet this criteria. One of the recently diagnosed patient actually had to visit 3 hospitals five times over a span of two weeks .. Tetsed positive. Reddit: reddit.com/r/China_Flu/co…

Iran now has several confirmed cases & minister states they’re of people who have not been to china or had contact with Chinese indicating community spread.

https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1230578896241860609

WHO confirms censorship for “misinformation” (@- 23min)Working with Google/FB/Twitter/Reddit etcWHO decides...

Science breakthrough in vaccine, could start clinical human trials by summer.:
telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/0…

Several companies/Orgs claiming vaccines yet factually wrong, & misleading (likely for funding), What is misinformation,... should claims of vaccines be censored as heavily as the "BIOLAB CONSPIRACY" (which turned out to be true. ) adomonline.com/weve-not-creat…

In reality, the us Is only to test in 3 or 5 states announced. “Test results are inconclusive” New kits being dispatched.

U.S. CDC calls coronavirus a "tremendous public health threat," says future human-to-human transmission in the U.S. is "very possible, even likely"

2/21/20 - "Costa Mesa’s court filing:”including CDC, Department of Health and Human Services and Department of Defense) and state agencies propose to relocate “35 to 50 patients already diagnosed with the coronavirus from a secure location on Travis Air Force Base”....

to Fairview, which was “not intended to house individuals infected with a highly contagious and deadly disease.”:
costamesaca.gov/home/showdocum…
(literal court filing^)

CBS claims its 30-70 patients, which is incorrect - is this misinformation?? Will CBS article be censored online? Didn’t think so. : losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/02/21/cos…

Question: Why does the city of Costa Mesa know of these 35- 50 “Already confirmed” cases yet the general public does not. Secondly, why is this not mainstream news, where’s CNN, MSNBC, FOX even?

Link edit: abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-co…

Italy, 150 confirmed cases 48 hrs:
news.sky.com/story/coronavi…

Italy & Iran take quarantine and travel bans as seriously as Chinese government

CBC, (Canada’s BBC) calls out China for lying, and WHO for being suspiciously pro China.
cbc.ca/news/health/ch…

Health minister of Iran tells news media “Not to publish statistics” lol wut?

https://twitter.com/farnazfassihi/status/1232016362178072581?s=20

Tone of NYT changes, highlighting those speaking out for freedom of speech, and the censorship of the CCP & Chinese government:
nyti.ms/2Ve4N54

PRE PRINT PER REVIEWED PAPER published by RXiv - 21% severer cases , 14% had ARDS, 4.8% Died
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

Define: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) wiki:  respiratory failure characterized by rapid onset of widespread inflammation in lungs...  Among those who survive, a decreased quality of life is relatively common

WHO states China has responded in a positively unprecedented way, meanwhile, Trump has fired most of the pandemic response team in the US
foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/cor…

“Pandemic Bonds” Issued by the world bank set to mature later in 2020 offering 13% interest to holders. If WHO advisors declare pandemic & other conditions are met, bonds will be broken & investors will be left holding the bag.
reuters.com/article/us-glo…

United States asks congress for $2.5Bn. Reportedly for a wall which will prevent infections.
nbcwashington.com/news/national-…

Coronavirus in 37 countries, BBC Health official claims coronavirus meets classic definition of a “Pandemic” WHO previously defines pandemic as: “Worldwide spread of a new disease.” WHO does not want to upset anyone, currently using, “International emergency”

Reports from hospitals and workers in those hospitals in Guongzhou and zheijing claim numbers of new cases are slowing & government loosening restrictions, time to rebuild, or prepare for a second wave of new infection? TBD.

Xi also warns “china cannot stay on pause much longer”
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…

“I would say this Canadian ‘contribution’ might likely be counterproductive,” said Dany Shoham, a biological and chemical warfare expert at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University. “I think the Chinese activities … are highly suspicious “
nationalpost.com/health/bio-war…

Germany & Singapore who have traced every case to its source & end with very good notes & healthcare while hospitals are functioning as expected.
106 cases
7 critical
63 recovered
7% being critical (better than 20% expected, but hospitals not overrun at this point)

Fox business; China nationalizes 3M mask company in China. Masks largely sold out across the US as of February, China will not be sending more. US orders 4 billion to be made at home.

Korea has been testing thousands for the virus for weeks now, the US after two announcements might start next week... Why can't we get this right?
theverge.com/2020/2/24/2114…

Washington post; “ Experts fear the small number of U.S. coronavirus cases reflects limited testing rather than a lack of infections:

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1232366133556191235?s=21

Apple’s manufacturer “Foxconn” offers $1000 bonus for workers to resume work.
scmp.com/tech/big-tech/…

Dow Jones falls 4.58%, worst day in 2 years. 10 yr treasury bonds hit record low.
marketwatch.com/story/a-pause-…

America’s official plans:
cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-r…
1/5
medicalcountermeasures.gov/BARDA/document…
2/5
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
3/5
cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-r…
4/5
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
5/5

THE SUMMARY

WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR
This virus has a current estimated Case Fatality Rate of ~2-4%.
No cause for concern...its just the flu guys.

Cases that need medical care are roughly 21%, 14% with (ARDS), 4.8% needing intensive care & oxygen respirators.
Without respiratory help, this 4.8% will likely die.

Since this is just the flu, and spreads as the flu does - Millions will need intensive medical care in a short period of time. This would overwhelm any medical supply chain capacity in the US let alone many others.

China’s urban healthcare is on par with the U.S.
China can forcibly quarantine their citizens and threaten jail time. Most cannot.

So what does this mean? Case fatality rate goes up... By how much? From Average Flu of 0.1% to 2-4%(COVID19) to 5%? 7%? 9%(SARS) 10%? +

60-80% of people will contract the virus with its (R0) of 1.4-6.6 people per one infected. 2-X% of the those infected will die and it will be mostly older people.

Quarantine, self induced, or mandatory will affect the economy as it has China, and China us.
Economy downtrend creates further problems for humanity overall.

So what can we do to combat this "flu"?
As the CDC says, this will cause “significant disruption” to daily life. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

General Notes:
You should prepare yourself and your family.
Buy food.
Buy water.
Self Quarantine if infected.
Wash hands.
Do not touch face.
Surgical masks do not work.
N95 slightly better if worn correctly*
Wear Goggles.
Wear Gloves.

General sources I trust:
Most recent numbers:
worldometers.info/coronavirus/
&
ncov2019.live/data
Graphs & maps
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo……
&
ncov.r6.no
NEWS
Reddit.com/r/coronavirus
&
twitter.com/BNONews
I’m open to edits and updates with better sources/ info.

Final note:

I am not an expert, I am not a doctor, this is not advice.

My condolences to those who have passed. Good fortune to all.

This is worse than the flu.

My city - San Francisco - Declares state of emergency.