Thread by @ShellenbergerMD

Alarming new Columbia study

- 6 of 7 COVID-19 infections stealth & contagious

- “outbreak very difficult to control.. will become pandemic”

- ave. flu takes 2 yrs to infect 50% of world

- if no advances in treatment, could infect 3.5B & kill 12M

😬

mailman.columbia.edu/public-health-…

“This is an upper bound and assumes no advances in the point-of-care treatment of confirmed cases, no new therapeutics, and no vaccine. An effective vaccine or new therapeutic would greatly reduce mortality. “

“However, the second most severe flu pandemic was in 1957 and is estimated to have killed 1-2 million people. COVID-19 could be worse—not as bad as 1918—but the worst since then.”

Well, this is also disturbing

“A person in California who was not exposed to anyone known to be infected with the coronavirus, and had not traveled to countries in which the virus is circulating, has tested positive for the infection.”

nytimes.com/2020/02/26/hea…

More context:

“Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year”

COVID-19 could this increase that death toll 20-40x

medicinenet.com/script/main/ar…

More context: 60,000 people globally die from natural disasters each year.

ourworldindata.org/natural-disast…

“Fauci’s initial optimism seemed to wane, too. Last week he said that the process of vaccine development was proving “very difficult and very frustrating.”

apple.news/AXR4ZYneWTtiC4…