20x times more dead in Italy than in South Korea
9x more *tested* in SK than Italy
Testing was key to prevent spread & treat sick
Sharing data with public was key to winning public trust
Are we so sure it is too late to implement Korean model?
9x more *tested* in SK than Italy
Testing was key to prevent spread & treat sick
Sharing data with public was key to winning public trust
Are we so sure it is too late to implement Korean model?
Think you’re invulnerable because you’re not over 80?
Half of all covid patients in critical condition in France are under the age of 50
nytimes.com/2020/03/14/wor…
Half of all covid patients in critical condition in France are under the age of 50
nytimes.com/2020/03/14/wor…
South Korea new cases peaked March 3
SK Active infected cases peaked March 10
SK achieved this with
- testing at 90+ labs throughout the country
- transparent digital data-sharing
- apps showing how to avoid infection
*Without* travel ban, restrictions of freedom, coercion.
SK Active infected cases peaked March 10
SK achieved this with
- testing at 90+ labs throughout the country
- transparent digital data-sharing
- apps showing how to avoid infection
*Without* travel ban, restrictions of freedom, coercion.
SK has 52M people compared to California’s 30M
SK per cap income is $40k vs Calif.’s $63k
California has #1 IT & communications industries in the world
We should be able to learn from the South Koreans
They offered the world their help
We should gratefully accept it
SK per cap income is $40k vs Calif.’s $63k
California has #1 IT & communications industries in the world
We should be able to learn from the South Koreans
They offered the world their help
We should gratefully accept it
Notably, the mortality rate shows a same pattern
Italy: ~3-7%
SK: 0.5 - 0.8%
However, these numbers do not represent the true mortality rate because we do not know true infection %
They could be at least 10x higher in many places but likely far less in SK
Italy: ~3-7%
SK: 0.5 - 0.8%
However, these numbers do not represent the true mortality rate because we do not know true infection %
They could be at least 10x higher in many places but likely far less in SK
World leaders & experts remain distressingly divided
Official @DrTedros WHO position is that “Coronavirus can be contained”
South Korea appears to prove correct
But UK govt @BorisJohnson & fmr @BarackObama advisor @ASlavitt say it can’t be
statnews.com/2020/03/03/who…
Official @DrTedros WHO position is that “Coronavirus can be contained”
South Korea appears to prove correct
But UK govt @BorisJohnson & fmr @BarackObama advisor @ASlavitt say it can’t be
statnews.com/2020/03/03/who…
“In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary"
bbc.com/news/science-e…
bbc.com/news/science-e…
New cases of coronavirus in South Korea continue to decline
Just 76 new cases on March 14, down from 100+ on March 13
Just 76 new cases on March 14, down from 100+ on March 13
South Korean officials stressed that a) their screening at the airport worked well and b) they did not require a travel ban like the one that is causing crowds of potentially infectious Americans at the airport
New York could face hospital bed shortage in 2 weeks unless more radical social distancing now
- Just 1-3k open beds
- 1,200 - 2,300 already infected
- Could have 100k+ infections in 2 wks
“NYC must implement severe social distancing & potentially fully shut down”
- Just 1-3k open beds
- 1,200 - 2,300 already infected
- Could have 100k+ infections in 2 wks
“NYC must implement severe social distancing & potentially fully shut down”
“The governor and the mayor continue to allow the virus to spread at schools, subways, restaurants, cafes, and workplaces. This is the exact same approach Italy took at the beginning of its outbreak.”
@donnellymjd
medium.com/@donnellymjd/c…
@donnellymjd
medium.com/@donnellymjd/c…
This is terrifying and happening in airports across America
A friend from Taiwan, which like Korea responded quickly and decisively, says “business and schools are still running... everything seems under control... wear a mask... we closed the border really soon”
“We are just going to have to shut down NYC...”
US lacks capacity including beds & respirators to “flatten curve”
If 40-70% of US were infected, keeping epidemic within current capacity would require spreading treatment over 10 years, not one
“containment is unavoidable, and should not be postponed”
medium.com/@joschabach/fl…
If 40-70% of US were infected, keeping epidemic within current capacity would require spreading treatment over 10 years, not one
“containment is unavoidable, and should not be postponed”
medium.com/@joschabach/fl…
“Everyone thought an epidemic such as the novel coronavirus could spread in a place like China, but not ‘in a country like ours.’ Why worry if you have excellent public hospitals available more or less for free?“
Brilliant @MacaesBruno @Quillette
quillette.com/2020/03/14/con…
Brilliant @MacaesBruno @Quillette
quillette.com/2020/03/14/con…
“If the virus were to spread as rapidly in the U.S. as it has in Italy, hospital executives say the burden on the health-care system could be crippling, with demand for beds & equipment needed to treat patients and protect staff exceeding supply.”
washingtonpost.com/business/2020/…
washingtonpost.com/business/2020/…
Great idea. Let South Korea educate the world on “test, trace, and treat”
Warning from Spain: 10x increase in cases in 1 week
Will happen here
Will happen here
The US must IMMEDIATELY follow U.K. lead and order US manufacturers to ramp up production of respirators/ventilators
They are key to survival
Make excess and ship the rest overseas as needed
We need war time manufacturing
PLEASE RETWEET
bbc.com/news/uk-518982…
They are key to survival
Make excess and ship the rest overseas as needed
We need war time manufacturing
PLEASE RETWEET
bbc.com/news/uk-518982…
“The German government just placed an order for 10,000 mechanical ventilators. What’s the U.S. government doing about a potential shortage here? Not much, it seems. President Trump alluded to the matter in press conference but did not spell out any plans”
forbes.com/sites/baldwin/…
forbes.com/sites/baldwin/…
After today, *26x* more dead in Italy than in South Korea
368 died today in Italy for total of 1,809
cnn.com/world/live-new…
368 died today in Italy for total of 1,809
cnn.com/world/live-new…
South Korea
- instant approval of tests in emergency situations
- used WHO sample test
- posted data showing movements of infected — w/o releasing names
- allowed smartphone map tracking
US
- "tried to create a more complicated test than WHO"
propublica.org/article/how-so…
- instant approval of tests in emergency situations
- used WHO sample test
- posted data showing movements of infected — w/o releasing names
- allowed smartphone map tracking
US
- "tried to create a more complicated test than WHO"
propublica.org/article/how-so…
- Spain & Italy deaths rising far more rapidly than in China
- Only successes in containing virus spread & death in East Asia
- Successes may/may not last but no more reason to think they won’t last than will
- 168k confirmed cases w/ 6.5k dead
- we are in very early days
- Only successes in containing virus spread & death in East Asia
- Successes may/may not last but no more reason to think they won’t last than will
- 168k confirmed cases w/ 6.5k dead
- we are in very early days
BREAKING
UK reverses policy: "Epidemic suppression is only viable strategy"
Demand for hospital beds will be 8x higher "under most optimistic scenario" (!)
"social/economic effects will be profound"
Best case = 250k deaths in UK 1M+ deaths in USA
UK reverses policy: "Epidemic suppression is only viable strategy"
Demand for hospital beds will be 8x higher "under most optimistic scenario" (!)
"social/economic effects will be profound"
Best case = 250k deaths in UK 1M+ deaths in USA
UK @BorisJohnson urges people to avoid “non-essential contact”
Whole households should isolate for 14 days when one family member sick
Work from home, don't go out
Only use NHS when needed
theguardian.com/politics/live/…
Whole households should isolate for 14 days when one family member sick
Work from home, don't go out
Only use NHS when needed
theguardian.com/politics/live/…
UK is ramping up testing
UK manufacturers sent blueprints to make 20k ventilators
UK manufacturers sent blueprints to make 20k ventilators
BBC Korea:
- scientists say covid-19 infections are *not* in decline
- looked that way because of Shincheonji church cluster
-deaths, however, *are* declining
- strategy is to keep spread to low level
- prepare for covid-19 to be around until Nov
- scientists say covid-19 infections are *not* in decline
- looked that way because of Shincheonji church cluster
-deaths, however, *are* declining
- strategy is to keep spread to low level
- prepare for covid-19 to be around until Nov
- People are forcing politicians to act from UK 2 NYC
- Aides to @NYCMayor threatened to quit
- Yesterday they gave him a graph of upward trajectory of epidemic that showed "disastrous picture of the days to come unless the mayor took immediate action.
nytimes.com/2020/03/16/nyr…
- Aides to @NYCMayor threatened to quit
- Yesterday they gave him a graph of upward trajectory of epidemic that showed "disastrous picture of the days to come unless the mayor took immediate action.
nytimes.com/2020/03/16/nyr…
Times of India reports doctors used novel drug combination to cure 7 Covid-19 patients
- Used combination of "malaria, HIV, and swine flu drugs"
- Patients gave consent
Scientists/experts please correct this report if it is wrong
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/rajastha…
- Used combination of "malaria, HIV, and swine flu drugs"
- Patients gave consent
Scientists/experts please correct this report if it is wrong
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/rajastha…
UK Scientists say "intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in
relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound."
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound."
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
New analysis of death rates
- "South Korea age distribution of confirmed cases corresponds closely to age distribution of overall pop"
- "1% is reasonable est. of death rate in high-income country in absence of major failures of hospital system"
medium.com/@andreasbackha…
- "South Korea age distribution of confirmed cases corresponds closely to age distribution of overall pop"
- "1% is reasonable est. of death rate in high-income country in absence of major failures of hospital system"
medium.com/@andreasbackha…
UK PM @BorisJohnson urges you to stay at home as much as possible even if you are not sick, and to stay at home for 14 days if you have one symptom eg fever or dry cough
Death gap between Asia & Europe grows
*30x* now more dead in Italy than South Korea
What happens next is up to us
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
*30x* now more dead in Italy than South Korea
What happens next is up to us
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
Australian government follows UK & US to reverse policy in favor of aggressive action
"Up to 150k Australians could die"
USA has 13x population of Australia
Very similar to UK Gov. estimate of 1M+ deaths in USA & 250k deaths in UK
smh.com.au/politics/feder…
"Up to 150k Australians could die"
USA has 13x population of Australia
Very similar to UK Gov. estimate of 1M+ deaths in USA & 250k deaths in UK
smh.com.au/politics/feder…
Hope from South Korea
- Only 81 deaths in the initial 16 day period compared to 718 in China and 1,441 deaths in Italy
- 509 dead in Spain after just 10 days
- SK cases decline to 74 from 909 on Feb 29
- 15k tests a day at 43 drive-through stations
sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/c…
- Only 81 deaths in the initial 16 day period compared to 718 in China and 1,441 deaths in Italy
- 509 dead in Spain after just 10 days
- SK cases decline to 74 from 909 on Feb 29
- 15k tests a day at 43 drive-through stations
sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/c…
US & Spanish mortality curves are steepening
"The vigilant monitoring systems in Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong were built over years, after their failures to stop another dangerous outbreak — SARS — 17 years ago. The United States disbanded its pandemic response unit in 2018."
nytimes.com/2020/03/17/wor…
nytimes.com/2020/03/17/wor…
"In 1918 cities lifted restrictions too soon then reimposed them.
"Covid-19’s incubation period is 2x influenza.
"So compliance may have to be sustained for months.
"Openings & closings may also have to be repeated....
"Covid-19’s incubation period is 2x influenza.
"So compliance may have to be sustained for months.
"Openings & closings may also have to be repeated....
"If the public is going to comply, they will have to be led, inspired or compelled.
"That brings us back to the most important lesson of 1918: Tell the truth."
nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opi…
"That brings us back to the most important lesson of 1918: Tell the truth."
nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opi…
