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Plenty of consequences here. Good news for Biden, obviously. Might also help get a few more candidates over that magic 15% threshold
Many stronger Buttigieg states--ME, CO, UT--were also states where Biden was in jeopardy of not hitting 15%. Even if his support breaks evenly, good for Biden--and it might not be even.
Elsewhere, Buttigieg support is concentrated in affluent areas, where it'll break Biden
It's also decent news for Warren. I don't understand her path forward at this point, but it can help her carry MA and push over/lock-in 15% in CA/CO/UT/ME
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Nate Cohn
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One interesting group is, for lack of a better term, the Romney-Clinton vote, which probably broke big for Biden in SC. They're a big factor in open Southern primaries, but Biden will face more competition now with Bloomberg in the race. Is it a vote that doesn't abandon him?
In Super Tues. polling data that I've seen, Bloomberg had a clear advantage, at least heading into SC, among Dem primary voters who last voted in a GOP primary. That's a big group in TX/VA; it'll be an interesting test of where these voters stand in their transition to the Dems
If these voters broke for Biden, and I'd guess the ones who feel pretty comfortable voting Dem at this point would do so, then you'd see Biden quickly pick up support in the affluent areas around DC/DAL/HOU/Nashville, etc.
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Nate Cohn
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At this point, the most serious Super Tuesday question is how many candidates breach 15 percent in California, statewide and in most districts, and therefore whether Sanders can pull off a knock out blow
I say this in part because the other Super Tuesday questions may not prove to be so interesting at this point. How much will Biden surge? It's a good question, but it just doesn't need to be much to sweep most of the South and bring about a clear one-on-one race after Super Tues
Could Biden extend a surge to Texas? Perhaps. Is it that significant? It would certainly give him needed momentum, but the difference between a modest win or loss there for Sanders or Biden isn't hugely important in delegate math (where others are over 15 could be more so)
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Nate Cohn
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I wouldn't say that Sanders is doing terribly poorly in South Carolina. I think he's doing about as you'd guess, based on the demographics. It's Biden who is doing really well and in ways that go beyond obvious demographics--like still getting 40% in areas with few black voters
A different way to frame this: the others really underperformed. It reminds me, in a way, of Cruz in Wisconsin back in '16: the one moment in the GOP race where the state's establishment really didn't want Trump, the voters didn't want Trump, and they knew what to do about it.
There are a lot of important differences that I won't dwell on. The point, though, is that this is the kind of result that you can get as a result of tactical voting. It's also the flip of NH, when Klobuchar surged and 'the others' (Biden/Warren) disappointed equally
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