At this point, the most serious Super Tuesday question is how many candidates breach 15 percent in California, statewide and in most districts, and therefore whether Sanders can pull off a knock out blow
I say this in part because the other Super Tuesday questions may not prove to be so interesting at this point. How much will Biden surge? It's a good question, but it just doesn't need to be much to sweep most of the South and bring about a clear one-on-one race after Super Tues
Could Biden extend a surge to Texas? Perhaps. Is it that significant? It would certainly give him needed momentum, but the difference between a modest win or loss there for Sanders or Biden isn't hugely important in delegate math (where others are over 15 could be more so)
Now what share of delegates will Sanders get in California? That's a big question, and it's sensitive to modest swings. If in most places only Sanders and one other candidate, presumably Biden, clears 15 percent, you could easily end up with a big Sanders delegate majority there
An NV-type result, say Sanders 35, Biden 20, Warren/Bloom/Pete <15, could give Sanders >60% of the delegates there.
