Thread by @danamlewis

Yay - this is the type of analysis I've been hoping to see, to help me better understand individual #COVID19 risk.

Note: previously we've only had access to comorbidity data around death (CFR). This data is hospitalization,ventilation, or death combined.

https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1234219769852809216?s=20

BUT, even with those combined, this is showing a hazard ratio for diabetes that you can apply to your age group risk to better understand your individual risk.

The tweet shows the overall risk for one comorbidity is 1.79. The article says the diabetes risk (of all three things combined) is 1.59.

That's huge, compared to the CFR of diabetes generally being reported at 7.3% (whereas my age group is 0.2%).

This means I can apply 1.59 toward my age group risk of 0.2%, and calculate that my personal risk is more in the ballpark of 0.3% (for hospitalization, ventilation, or death).

....that's much, much, much lower than I was fearing.

However, keep in mind for our friends in different age groups that this might NOT be comforting - e.g. if they have two or more things, and are in an older age group, this puts them at much higher risk of severe illness, above and beyond their already higher risk age group.

This is why, in addition for protecting me (because 0.3% is not 0!), I will continue doing self-isolation when sick, social distancing measures from the community, and working on #CoEpi to help protect the other members of my community at greater risk.

TLDR: If you have chronic illnesses or conditions you're dealing with, take a look at the paper for more info. It's the first useful data I've seen that I find helpful for assessing individual-based risk in contextualizing.

And everyone can use the reminder to wash their hands.