COVID-19 math:
If
X = # of deaths, and
Y = total # of infected people,
Then
X / Y = fatality rate.
If Y is wrong because govt’s aren’t testing or reporting, then the rate will also be wrong: it will seem to be higher than it actually is.
If
X = # of deaths, and
Y = total # of infected people,
Then
X / Y = fatality rate.
If Y is wrong because govt’s aren’t testing or reporting, then the rate will also be wrong: it will seem to be higher than it actually is.
" ‘Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,’ [the] WHO Director-General said.”
Note “reported.” This is not an accurate total count of infected people.
google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc…
Note “reported.” This is not an accurate total count of infected people.
google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc…
Why would governments under-report cases? Maybe they don’t have the capacity to test widely, so they legitimately don’t know. Maybe they don’t want to appear to be a center of pathogenicity, and are lying. Maybe they don’t know because many cases are mild or asymptomatic.
Regardless of why, the fact that we *know* that the denominator (in the simple formula to calculate fatality rate) is too low, we therefore also know that the fatality rate being calculated is too high (unless deaths are being over-reported, which seems doubtful).
Oh my god this should be so f*#^ing obvious, and yet. Panics will ensue because the populace needs remedial math.
Innumeracy may yet be the thing that destroys us.
Innumeracy may yet be the thing that destroys us.
Correction: this should read “...(unless deaths are being under-reported...)”. And under-reporting of deaths is a definite possibility.
Innumeracy may yet be the thing that destroys us, I said.
This was not a hopeful prediction. I do not want to have been right. But holy hell is this bad. Are even the fact-checkers incapable of basic arithmetic?
This was not a hopeful prediction. I do not want to have been right. But holy hell is this bad. Are even the fact-checkers incapable of basic arithmetic?
