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This makes interesting reading for a few reasons
1/ The OBR’s more favourable forecast than the BofE for our economy last year was based on immigration figures not being tightened. Now set to reduce the forecast on Patel’s plan
2/ It also reveals a division between Javid & her
Lesson 1/. Make sure you understand the underlying assumptions being made by bodies issuing forecasts. When those change so will the forecast. With Javid gone and Patel still in place the underlying assumption has changed
Lesson 2/. This means more borrowing and even less headroom to increase public spending as Johnson promised

And now we have #Covid_19 which will need substantial public spending support.

Wonder when Johnson starts wishing he hadn’t won that election
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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯#FBPE
@fascinatorfun
Who knows what #Covid_19 is in USA
Fewer than 100 people have been tested in NY City, yet 33 have tested positive
A v high concentration

“I think it’s fair to say we have no idea how many New Yorkers have been infected with this virus without knowing it”
nytimes.com/2020/03/06/wor…
Whilst there is a downturn in incidence in China and even in Hubei which, saving for Wuhan, had no new incidence today.

But Citizens were heard calling “It’s all fake from a balcony”.

I hope not.
Read 3 tweets
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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯#FBPE
@fascinatorfun
#COVIDー19
This makes several useful points about cohort. Are we comparing apples with apples? Are the cohort selection criteria the same from state to state and country to country.

The answer is clearly NO regarding country to country.

Something is going badly wrong in USA
In the U.K. the Dept of Health are correctly imposing a nationally coherent strategy with common surveillance software.

As is evident from the embedded thread, in the USA they cannot say with any certainty how many people have been tested in each state and county.
So who knows what meaning to attach to positive tests?

Firstly. Why would the CDC or states or counties seek to conceal the number of tests being carried out?

I can’t think of a good scientific reason.

Political ones maybe..but not good for citizens.
Read 5 tweets
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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯#FBPE
@fascinatorfun
How Many Americans Have Been Tested for Coronavirus? - The Atlantic

Through interviews with ++public-health officials & a survey of local data from across the country, The Atlantic could only verify that 1,895 people have been tested for #CV19, 10% +ve.
theatlantic.com/health/archive…
As a comparator the U.K. had tested 18k people to identify 115 cases.

And the concentration of +ve results has been increasing daily recently. Yesterday the ratio in the U.K. was 1:44

So 1:10 in the US is much higher. I suspect, but do not know they aren’t tracing & testing
How can a Government and Health Service identify, manage, model, and treat if you aren’t even testing?

The thing with the US administration is that it rather looks as if they were wilfully not seeing so they have not prepared TO see, measure.
Read 3 tweets

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Adam Lane Smith
@TheBrometheus
Last year I raised my family above poverty for the first time. A few years prior to that I:

-Had fleas
-Had feral rats in my home
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Been a long road.
Started off so incredibly poor. @MrsBrometheus and I got married with silver rings from the mall because we couldn’t afford gold. Lived in low-income housing where addicts tried to kick in our door when I went to work. Had to warn their families we’d kill the addicts to stop them
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Shay Castle
@shayshinecastle
Howdy, #Boulder. I know it's unusual, hearing from me on a Thursday night. But I'm going to be live-tweeting the Economic Forecast meeting for tonight.
I have finally gotten out of bed for the second time this week just for this.
This is, I believe, the fifth(?) one of these I've done. They have pretty much all been the same: Our economy is growing, it's going to keep growing, but we're probably going to go through a recession soon.
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Google SearchLiaison
@searchliaison
Last year, our search results on mobile gained a new look. That’s now rolling out to desktop results this week, presenting site domain names and brand icons prominently, along with a bolded “Ad” label for ads. Here’s a mockup: Image
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Val. Masson-Delmotte
@valmasdel
Last Monday, I was invited to speak on the occasion of the 100 years anniversary of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics @theIUGG @UNESCO.
100.iugg.org/events.php
@theIUGG @UNESCO It was an opportunity to reflect on a success story, a failure story, and a transformation story, looking both backwards and forward.
@theIUGG @UNESCO Looking backwards, it is extremely impressive to consider the climate science achievements of the past century.
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Dalton
@DaltonReport
From my research I am finding the Jeffrey Epstein case leads to a child sex trafficking ring run between the U.S., UK, Israel, & Saudi Arabia.

Blackmail & pleasure.

Modeling agencies are front groups to ensnare girls.

Socialites, politics, wealth.

An Open Secret.
Saudi Arabia.

CEO, Les Wexner, of @VictoriasSecret's parent company.

Les Wexner's Ohio home where Maria Farmer,...accused Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell of sexually assaulting her.
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5 Victoria's Secret Stores in Saudi Arabia.
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Victoria's Secret have opened a store in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

The CEO, Les Wexner, of Victoria's parent company was one of Jeffrey Epstein's only known clients.

'close personal friends'
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Located in the Red Sea Mall.
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Tom Jawetz
@TomJawetz
Castro, Booker, and Beto have now each elaborated on their positions with respect to 1325 misdemeanor illegal entry prosecutions.'

Although there are distinctions between those positions, they may largely be without difference. /1
8 USC 1325 makes it a criminal misdemeanor to enter the country without authorization. It's been the law for 90 years but was rarely used until the final years of the George W. Bush administration. /2
This chart from @TRACReports shows the spike in ALL #immigration prosecutions (not just 1325) in 2008, followed by high prosecution numbers during the early Obama years and a sustained drop late in 2014 that carried through until a sharp increase under Trump. /3
Read 15 tweets

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