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Its Friday!!!

Lets do a data roundup-

As of this minute ( they are still counting in CA)

The delegate count is.

Biden 648
Sanders 568,
Warren 64,
Bloomberg 60,
Buttieg 26,
Klobuchar 7,
Gabbard 2
Next UP
Mar 10
Democrats Abroad
Idaho
Michigan
Mississippi
Missouri
N. Dakota
Washington
Mar 14 North Marianas
Mar 17 - The Bernie Beat Down

Arizona
Florida
Illinois
Ohio

Mar 24
Georgia
Bernie pretend comback Narrative
Puerto Rico
Alaska
Hawaii
Wyoming
Wisconsin - April 7
Loses on April 4

Louisiana so dismissed
April 28

Connecticut
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
May 2

Kansas
Guam

May 5

Indiana

May 12

Nebraska
West Virginia

May 19

Kentucky
June 2

Blue Votes for Joe Biden
DC
New Mexico
S Dakota
Montana

June 6

Blue’s family Votes USVI
There are 3,979 pledged delegates
There are 771 supers

3 big take aways from Super Tuesday voting

Bernie has an overall Latino vote advantage a cum. 9 points. But that advantage is more West than East

Joe Biden dominates with anyone who consider themselves a big D Dem
Joe Biden has a black voter advantage close too but not quite HRC/ Obama/ B Clinton levels but it beats other levels that handily won the nomination
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BlueSteelDC
@BlueSteelDC
Bernie and Liz set rules on fundraising to favor their headstart advantages

And run the two rockstar candidates out of the race: Beto and Kamala

Castro/Booker/Biden came from deep pocket states.

All the type of money the new comers could get was bad.
Only good money was from small donors who give frequently.

By the way this is expensive operation that takes a LONG time to cultivate. Only a scintilla of Americans do this and Rs have an operational advantage

This was the only good money until they realized it was not enough
Then they looked left and right realized all the black candidates were gone, the Latino candidates couldn’t get off the ground.

The Rockstars were quieted and even VP didn’t use his vast networks

Then they went pysche we have SuperPacs and soft money donors.
Read 5 tweets
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BlueSteelDC
@BlueSteelDC
Let me disabuse of something- We never promised purity, we never promised leftier than any leftiest position.

The historic progress that you celebrate today- well let me tell you the real story of how it came to be. It was not rainbows and unicorn promises.
The people who made a point of purity- did not make it into your history books.

They were too pure to get elected. To pure to make an impact.

And all they could offer people is their words of agreement.
The stories of FDR, Truman, JFK, LBJ, Carter, Clinton and the first African Americans president to get elected President Obama- is grittier, more transactional, more calculating and in some cases more pipe hitting.

But for that we have social security, civil rights, FMLA ..
Read 3 tweets
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BlueSteelDC
@BlueSteelDC
latimes.com/politics/story… What would a Sander's win look like? We most likely loose the House and the Senate. It would be massive gridlock and everyone assuming he would wipe out their student debt and deliver singlepayer-would be disappointed to learn he can do none that.
If you add all the programs up that Sanders as promised-you are talking about 114 Trillion dollars in spending -projected for a 4 year period. When the average yearly budget is 1 trillion. washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2019…
You would have to raise tax rates on the middle class to the amount you see in Europe. At around 75% And the U.S. market is not sizable enough to offset taxation of that amount for corporations-so they would relocate outside the US.
bing.com/videos/search?…
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Demain c'est le début des primaires démocrates pour désigner le candidat qui affrontera #Trump en novembre. Mais au fait, lequel de ces candidats est le plus à même de battre le Président sortant ? #thread
🇺🇸🗳️ Un premier point dans une vaste étude du #VoterStudyGroup de @democracyfund : 2016 était la première élection qui mettait aux prises deux candidats rejetés par les Américains. Ce sera la même chose en 2020, ni #Trump ni les prétendants démocrates ne passant la barre des 50%.
@DemocracyFund 🇺🇸🗳️ Dans les sondages nationaux, #Biden est régulièrement le candidat démocrate qui obtient les meilleurs résultats face à #Trump. Idem dans les principaux #swingstates, et pas seulement dans ceux de la #rustbelt où l'aspect "local" de #Biden l'aide.
Read 22 tweets
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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Dans pile un mois, c’est le début d'une longue et palpitante saison électorale aux #EtatsUnis avec le caucus de l’#Iowa lors duquel 14 candidats vont concourir à l'investiture du parti démocrate. #primaires
🇺🇸🗳️ Au niveau national, peu d'évolutions en un an de campagne :

➡️#Biden reste en tête

➡️Les candidats de l’aile gauche #Sanders et #Warren le suivent à distance

➡️#Buttigieg est le seul autre candidat à se démarquer, les autres faisant (pour l’instant ?) de la figuration
🇺🇸🗳️ Mais les sondages nationaux ont peu d’importance à ce stade : si un candidat crée la surprise lors d’une des premières primaires, il peut impulser une dynamique à sa campagne (le « momentum ») qui l’avantagera lors des scrutins suivants.
Read 41 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
In data from @FiveThirtyEight and GDELT tracking, #Biden is leading TV mentions. This is pushing down poll numbers for other candidates.

Biden - 4,317
Sanders - 461
Warren - 1,090
Harris - 146
Buttigieg - 88
O'Rourke - 118
Booker - 142
Klobuchar - 47
Yang - 41
Castro - 21
These numbers should embarrass the MSM. #Harris is polling 4th yet she has less than 2% of #Biden's mentions, only 10% of #Warren's. #Buttigieg is polling right behind Harris and he has only half her mentions. Yet #Booker is almost equal to Harris. While #Castro--almost nothing.
The week showed a big drop in mentions for #Harris and #Sanders, despite high profile appearances for both on major TV shows. The disconnect is striking, particularly since both have rolled out new policy and important changes in their campaigns.
Read 6 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
#KamalaHarris's support is almost evenly split between women and men. The same is true of her support from voters with and without college degrees. Her support from black voters is equal to Biden's and support from Latinx is higher.
via @MorningConsult
#LizWarren's main support is from women at 60%. Warren's support from voters over and under 45 is almost evenly split, unlike any other top four candidate. And she has nearly equal support among college and no college voters.

via @MorningConsult
The evenness of @KamalaHarris's polling between women and men and voters of color and white voters versus the other top four candidates is significant and bolsters her electability argument.

via @MorningConsult
Read 4 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
As I first wrote several weeks ago would happen, the Democratic debates have restructured the polling, putting, as I predicted, @KamalaHarris and @ewarren within striking distance of @JoeBiden.

Biden 22%
Harris 17%
Warren 15%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg 4%

cnn.com/2019/07/01/pol… …
Months of assertions that #Biden was "inevitable" have been eviscerated. Unable to stand up to #Harris at the debates, Biden appeared tired, confused and unprepared, despite having been kept away from major events for weeks by his handlers. Harris has been campaigning daily.
#Warren won the first debate handily, with only @JulianCastro and @CoryBooker offering any other strong moments in the two hour debate.
The new rankings put #Harris and Warren in the lead for most electable and many are already talking about Harris/Warren as the 2020 ticket.
Read 11 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets

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