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Social distancing and the #COVID19 curves
thelancet.com/lancet/article…
economist.com/briefing/2020/…
Learning what works from ~100 years ago
pnas.org/content/104/18… @PNASNews
by @DrRHatchett @mlipsitch @CCDD_HSPH
Philly vs St. Louis (<-why we need to be St. Louis)
wsj.com/articles/what-… @jonoquick @DukeGHI @WSJopinion #COVID19
More #COVID19 curves
How we can #SlowtheSpread, not override #healthcare capacity
Via @CT_Bergstrom and @k_thos (left)
@splette (right)
Credit @TheEconomist version @_rospearce
Great thread by @CT_Bergstrom
Now the @splette curve in motion by @SiouxsieW @XTOTL @TheSpinoffTV and the call to action. In the U.S., we're not doing nearly enough towards social distancing, still having big gatherings, not learning from the countries that have achieved flattening.
Instead, we're writing the book on "How Not to Flatten the Curve"
—Have big political rallies @SenSanders @JoeBiden @realDonaldTrump & meetings @worldwarzero
—Keep places like @DIsney @DisneyParks open
—And leading gov't experts are not on board yet
nytimes.com/2020/03/08/hea…
Too bad they're not listening to @ScottGottliebMD
cbsnews.com/news/transcrip…
@CDCgov @CDCDirector @HHSGov @SecAzar @WhiteHouse @US_FDA @FaceTheNation
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#COVID19 #SlowtheSpread #healthcare

More from @EricTopol see all

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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
The 1st #COVID19 case in the US was diagnosed Jan 21.
It has since taken 53 days to do ~20,000 tests.
That's how many South Korea does in 1 day now.
That broad testing in South Korea (now >270,000 tests) was mounted early along with social distancing, closing of schools, tracing contacts. Total cases now 8162, curve flattened to lowest number of cases (76) since Feb 22; 75 deaths (0.9%).
The broad testing of people w/exposure, no symptoms, picked up on the key asymptomatic group, now understood to be a major driver of spread, especially among the young (unlike Italy/US testing)
—cnn.com/2020/03/14/hea… by @elizcohencnn
—medium.com/@andreasbackha… by @andreasshrugged
Read 6 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
A new @jclinicalinvest commentary suggesting the use of serum from people who have recovered from #COVID19 as a potential prevention/treatment jci.org/articles/view/…
by @ACasadevall1 @JohnsHopkinsSPH and Liise-Anne Pirofski @EinsteinMed
They make a very strong case and review all the prior experience, ending w/:
"Hence, as we are in the midst of a worldwide pandemic, we recommend that institutions consider the emergency use of convalescent sera and begin preparations as soon as possible. Time is of the essence."
The #COVID19 convalescent transfusion concept was also advanced @TheLancet 2 weeks ago
thelancet.com/action/showPdf… via @tmprowell @matthewherper
@TheLancetInfDis
Read 3 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
The dire #COVID19 situation in Italy where ~20% (350) of health professionals have been infected, some deaths, and projections for hospital bed and resource shortage
In today's @TheLancet
thelancet.com/action/showPdf…
by @AndreaRemuzzi and @gremuzzi1
Note that is in the Lombardy region which has been profoundly hit
@JAMALive has an extensive report from Italy today
Of the 13,882 patients in Lombardy region w/ #COVID19, 1,186 (8%) are #healthcare professionals (#JAMALive) A very useful interview w/ @howardbauchner w/ @DeMCecconi
accompanying @JAMA_Current paper jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
by @DrMCecconi, Giacomo Grasselli, @pesenti_antonio
Read 4 tweets

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The Walrus
@walrusmagazine
Hi, this is @kevinpatterson. I’m a critical care doctor; I work in an ICU on Vancouver Island, and in the Arctic on the west coast of Hudson Bay. I’ve been thinking a lot about the history of pandemics lately, for all the obvious reasons—and also, about February 15. 1/11
Only six weeks ago, in the last days of January, Wuhan, China was seeing thousands of new cases a day. The hospitals were overwhelmed, and 14% of nurses became infected. It got pretty Dantean. 2/11
On January 23, China imposed draconian public health measures to try and halt the spread. At that point, there had been 517 #COVIDー19 cases in Wuhan, and 17 deaths—on both counts, fewer than America has right now. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
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Klaus Peper: BenedictusΧριστοῦVIcarius
@folcmar
1/ I have corrected my assumption of herd #immunity being achieved at 70% of population to 60%. Extrapolation was made under further simplified assumptions:
* full disclosure of all cases,
* unchecked spread,
* maximum mixing
Estimated time course of #COVID19 cases in #Germany:
2/ Extrapolation of daily #COVID19 cases in Germany:
3/ Estimated daily hospital admissions of #COVID19 cases in Germany under assumption of 5% hospitalisation rate. Note: Germany has 500,000 hospital beds.
Read 11 tweets
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Matteo Villa
@emmevilla
🦠🇮🇹 #COVIDー19 in Italia.
Ieri vi ho detto che stiamo perdendo la capacità di capire come evolve l'epidemia.

Lasciate che vi spieghi cosa intendo.

Un thread per fare ordine, e in cui alla fine arriveremo alla figura che vedete in questo tweet.

#coronavirusitalla #COVID19
Prima, definizioni.

Il tasso di letalità è il numero di persone che muoiono tra i contagiati.

È molto diverso dal tasso di mortalità, che invece stima quante persone muoiano nella popolazione generale (inclusi i sani), e che dipende dalla prevalenza del virus nella popolazione.
Nel corso delle epidemie, di solito il tasso di letalità parte "alto" e poi converge verso un valore realistico.

Ci sono diverse ragioni per cui succede: per esempio spesso ci accorgiamo del virus con i primi decessi e casi gravi, e solo poi capiamo quanto sia diffuso.
Read 12 tweets
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Jacob Canfield
@JacobCanfield
I decided to read almost every paper that exists on #CoronaVirus today.

My background is Biology and Neurology and I'm obsessed with catching parabolic trends early, data and medical research.

Here is a thread with the latest research

Feel free to retweet or cite with credits
For reference, about a month ago, I was one of the early people warning of Corona Virus and urging my followers to prepare and buying masks and predicting fear and mass hysteria.

Links to tweets:


Where did it come from?

Based on the genetic sequencing, it either came from bats or Pangolins originally.

The most probable suspect is a bat, but it could have been a bat to another animal similar to how SARS spread before.

Source:
nature.com/articles/s4158…
Read 29 tweets
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Sam Parker 🇺🇲
@SamParkerSenate
1. Wuhan Coronavirus is an engineered offensive bioweapon.

You're not being told this by the Mockingbird media here because the US Gov is directly responsible for the global bioweapons arms race. We've spent somewhere in the neighborhood of $100-200 Billion since 9/11.

(cont)
2. The swine flu, hoof & mouth and western Africa ebola outbreaks, etc, were all bioweapon development accidents.

This kind of research is happening here, on US soil, & the last thing our police-state rulers want is for us to be aware of this domestic WMD research.

(cont)
3. The WHO, CDC, Fort Detrick, NIH & Big Pharma all know what's going on. Their corporate media allies are not going to spill the beans.

We're being lied to, and not just by China.

#WuhanPneumonia #WuFlu #WuhanCoronavirus

(cont)
Read 64 tweets
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Alexis Verger
@Alexis_Verger
#365papers Let's try this for 2019, highlighting 365 papers (does not necessarily mean 1 paper per day) - A thread
#365papers 1⃣ The thread started with a bang - A must read opinion by @MarcHalfon on the fundamental question of how to define an enhancer cell.com/trends/genetic…
#365papers 2⃣ citrullination by PADI2 of RNA Pol II CTD R1810 regulates the transcription of highly expressed genes by mediating the interaction with P-TEFb cell.com/molecular-cell…
Read 367 tweets

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