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The dire #COVID19 situation in Italy where ~20% (350) of health professionals have been infected, some deaths, and projections for hospital bed and resource shortage
In today's @TheLancet
thelancet.com/action/showPdf…
by @AndreaRemuzzi and @gremuzzi1
Note that is in the Lombardy region which has been profoundly hit
@JAMALive has an extensive report from Italy today
Of the 13,882 patients in Lombardy region w/ #COVID19, 1,186 (8%) are #healthcare professionals (#JAMALive) A very useful interview w/ @howardbauchner w/ @DeMCecconi
accompanying @JAMA_Current paper jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
by @DrMCecconi, Giacomo Grasselli, @pesenti_antonio
Lesson from Lombardy: #COVID19 doesn't discriminate. Residents there are among the wealthiest in Italy and Europe, and this is perhaps the most severely affected region (outside of China) to date, as relayed by @DrMCecconi in the #JAMALive video
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#COVID19 #healthcare #JAMALive

More from @EricTopol see all

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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
It's time to clear up the issues about testing. So I've put together a #COVID19 thread on spread.
Addressing the Super-spreaders, Spreaders, and the essentiality of testing
Let's start in China where the 1st cases were manifest.
A @ScienceMagazine yesterday provided elegant modeling from real data to show that 79% of the spread was from people without #COVID19 detection.
Now Singapore, which dealt with 3 clusters by having tight surveillance of pneumonia, testing immediately and tracing all the contacts
thelancet.com/journals/lance… @TheLancet
Read 9 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
What will go down as the biggest breakdown in the US response to #COVID19 is the lack of test kits. South Korea and the US had their 1st patients on Jan 20 and Jan 21, respectively. Look at the difference in daily testing. By March 4th, SK was ~18,000 per day.
On March 14, Dr. Barbara Birx did, "When you are tested, and our results look very similar to South Korea now, with South Korea with 96% plus of people with symptoms are negative." That's 4% positive by CDC tests.
Fully transparent: @COVID19Tracking w/ a 9.7% positive rate today
Similar plot of South Korea vs US #COVID19 test data today @nytimes; it includes more recent CDC data, the cumulative N of tests 55 days after each country's 1st patient was diagnosed, confirmed cases, and has a different Y-axis display from mine
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Read 6 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
A new @ScienceMagazine paper is the best evidence yet for the people without symptoms ("undocumented," i.e. with no or mild Sx, not tested) driving the spread #COVID19
science.sciencemag.org/content/early/… brilliant modeling of synthetic outbreak
via @hholdenthorp
If anyone questioned the value of social and physical distancing, this ought to help squelch it.
#StayHomeSaveLives stayhomesavelives.us
I'm taking the liberty of changing the headline of this very good @CNN piece
by @elizcohencnn cnn.com/2020/03/14/hea…
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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sarah lortscher
@BlueLortscher
I'm an advanced nurse practitioner. Our team is responsible for looking after the hospital at night, the sickest patients, those who need CPR. I've just finished my first 3 shifts since the corona virus outbreak in Scotland #covidー19uk
#coronavirus #SelfIsolation
Thread...
It was difficult and everyone is scared. Here are some things;
-to all the people who can and are working from home, I applaud you. It's not mandatory, you're just taking responsibility for the things you can affect which makes you a hero!
-this will not last forever
-I feel more scared and panicked when I feel helpless. But we're not. We can self isolate, distance ourselves socially and practice excellent hand hygine.
-this will not last forever.
-every one person who stays healthy, is one less who will potentially need a hospital bed
Read 6 tweets
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Joel Benjamin
@Gian_TCatt
Western Government's lax attitudes to public health & safety, as a secondary consideration to market integrity is being brutally exposed by effectiveness of response in Asia #COVIDー19 #CoronavirusOutbreak #Korea
Look at the trend of #Coronavirus spread in S Korea (everyone with symptoms gets #Covid19 testing) vs UK where only the v sick, footballers, CEOs & MPs get tested.
Containing #coronavirus: the lessons from Asia ft.com/content/e015e0… #COVID_19UK
Read 6 tweets
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Patrycja Kozik
@patrycja_kozik
In face of many EU countries going into a lockdown, this is my attempt to understand British approach to #COVID-19… /1
Also checkout: bit.ly/2IIsLhs
This curve represents a number of people that will require hospitalisation due to COVID-19 over time. Without any interventions, the number of people who do not have access to hospital beds is over one million and the end of “hospital bed crisis” comes on day 71. /2
Scenario 1:
On day 1 (around 500 cases) we introduce a lockdown that reduces exposures 15x. 140,000 people do not have access to hospitals when needed and the end of “hospital bed crisis” comes on day 710… (That’s two years of lockdown!) #FlattenTheCurve /3
Read 9 tweets
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Medical Axioms
@medicalaxioms
People don’t understand the single greatest risk of #COVIDー19.

It is The Pinch.

Come along with me while I explain.

#COVID19US #CoronavirusUSA #coronavirus #SARSCoV2 #COVID19seattle #Coviditalia #covid4MDs #thepinch
This will potentially affect you, your kids, you parents. They don’t even have to get sick. It all has to do with TOO MANY PATIENTS TOO SICK AT ONE TIME.
Here’s what we know. One person in a community gets sick and they infect others. Most people don’t get too sick and they get better.

They are not “safe” though. Read to the end.
Read 20 tweets
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LizaYuzda
@LizaYuzda
Six new #COVIDー19 in bc
2 related to Iran travel
2 in 60s from princess cruise 11-21 feb trip - Fraser health region - stable but in hosp for observation
More may test positive who were on that cruise
2 most concerning - residents of Lynn valley care centre
#bcpoli
Dr Bonnie Henry says the two positive tests in the care home leading to large investigation into residents and workers and what contact they’ve had.
And there are restrictions on that facility now for who is in and out.
#bcpoli #COVIDー19
Four recovered
The icu patient stable
2 I
All others in isolation
Also those with contact in isolation
“We are in an extraordinary situation” - Henry says - if you are sick stay home, keep your kids home.
But know that not everyone who is sick has #COVIDー19
Read 17 tweets
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Ali
@aliostad
I will start today's thread on #COVID in Iran, following up from yesterday's #irancorona
DISCLAIMER:

The GOOD
- Government in a complete reversal taken #COVID seriously
- As per contacts, many stay indoors if they can

The BAD:
- Explosion of cases in new cities
- Tehran seems to be next
- Extreme shortage of basic hygiene supplies
- Street collapses continue
#irancorona
Read 37 tweets

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