Alaska is stalled out in the same misguided "economy first" mode that you've seen elsewhere. Rather than preemptive, proactive testing, they are hoarding tests for the inevitable onslaught, encouraging people to visit SEA and spend $$$$ on Iditarod events. #covid19
Another approach, if we had a governor willing to step up - would be to see the handwriting on the wall NOW. Understand that we could be in a unique position to slow down the spread here by proactively encouraging #socialDistancing - by closing schools NOW instead of later.
Anybody who has been watching since mid to late January knows this has been headed our way. We've seen China, South Korea, Iran, and Italy. And the only one that has had any success has been South Korea. Why? Because they've tested craploads of asymptomatic people.
This has allowed them to isolate potential spreaders before they even got started. They are also getting people treatment WAY earlier, helping improve outcomes for even the elderly. Unlike WA state, where 26 are dead at the Kirkland nursing home. They haven't even tested all.
So Alaskans are patting themselves on the back right now. We have no cases, good on us! Bullshit. Having no cases is only a sign that you haven't tested enough. We have longshoreman friend, hearty guy - sick as a dog last week with respiratory distress, coughing, fever.
His flu tests were both negative. He was NEVER offered a covid19 test - and he has not been called by our health department since. He works at the port. How many other guys at the port might have been sick? Who knows. And the Health Dept of AK doesn't appear to be investigating.
So we sit and wait. In many ways, it would have been better for our first positive case to come before the Iditarod. Because there is 100% certainty that at least 1 of those visitors will have covid19. 100%. It's what we know from watching this disease tear through the globe.
But the "economy first" idiots think "well we NEED that cash from the tourists!" They are already facing shortages of PPE equipment in Seattle. Not to mention terrible problems with HC people getting put in quarantine. So what's the plan here? What entrances should we use?
Alaskans should know where to go at Providence, Regional, the Native Hospital, and Matsu - so if they need a covid19 test, they don't infect healthcare workers in the process. How about programs like @seattleflustudy that are sending out home test kits?
Alaskan schools also face a stark choice - plan now for the inevitable closures, and let people start looking for creative solutions for first responders and other essential workers to help take care of their families - or wait until it's already a disaster.
@threadreaderapp unroll
I realize not all Alaskans have had the benefit of doing all of the reading I have done since mid to late January. And many are Trump supporters (I am also a GOP voter). His denials of the severity of covid19 have created fostered complacency.
The CDC's botched rollout of early testing has cost our country weeks in our battle against this virus. And the statitics cherry picked and manipulated by his representatives are just plain wrong. Here are the most recent stats from Italy's hardest hit region, Lombardy.
10 % Lombardy doctors are infected
Death ratio of 4.25 % from 2.5%
Approximately 9% admitted to ICU.
source:
Death ratio of 4.25 % from 2.5%
Approximately 9% admitted to ICU.
source:
You may have heard "it's just the flu." Not, it's not. Not even close. A variety of infectious disease doctors have called this the scariest pathogen they've ever seen (moreso than Ebola). Why? Because it combines lethality with ease of spread.
Here is another graphic from Italy, comparing the flu to covid19. There is no comparison to be made, and to think otherwise is to be deluding yourself. With these kinds of unknowns, protecting Alaskans means taking this deadly seriously. 
One of the most level headed examinations of the math behind what is about to unfold in the U.S. is here, by an engineer with a phD in biology. She's also pretty good at math.
