Britain is now an extreme outlier in how little it is doing to slow the spread of corona.
Here’s why Boris Johnson’s “cunning plan” could be so dangerous – and why the reassuring things that British politicians are telling the public are likely wrong.
[Thread.]
Here’s why Boris Johnson’s “cunning plan” could be so dangerous – and why the reassuring things that British politicians are telling the public are likely wrong.
[Thread.]
In 2009, Boris Johnson joked:
“A gigantic fish is eating all your constituents and [the mayor from Jaws] decides to keep the beach open. It turns out he was wrong. But it remains that he was heroically right in principle.”
Now, Boris is staking British lives on that principle.
“A gigantic fish is eating all your constituents and [the mayor from Jaws] decides to keep the beach open. It turns out he was wrong. But it remains that he was heroically right in principle.”
Now, Boris is staking British lives on that principle.
Johnson’s strategy in a nutshell:
• Spread of corona now inevitable.
• Try to get to herd immunity quickly.
• Infect a lot of younger people so older people will be less likely to get it.
For more background, read this explainer and this thread 👇.
• Spread of corona now inevitable.
• Try to get to herd immunity quickly.
• Infect a lot of younger people so older people will be less likely to get it.
For more background, read this explainer and this thread 👇.
There are at least five problems with this cunning plan:
1) Corona spreads exponentially.
2) It could overwhelm the NHS.
3) It’s not feasible to ensure only the young get sick.
4) The death toll will be massive.
5) This is all based on an unproven assumption about immunity.
1) Corona spreads exponentially.
2) It could overwhelm the NHS.
3) It’s not feasible to ensure only the young get sick.
4) The death toll will be massive.
5) This is all based on an unproven assumption about immunity.
1) Exponential Spread
The UK thinks it can space out infections without taking radical measures. But because corona manifests slowly yet grows exponentially, that strategy hasn't worked anywhere else.
And once it's obvious things are getting out of hand, it's probably too late.
The UK thinks it can space out infections without taking radical measures. But because corona manifests slowly yet grows exponentially, that strategy hasn't worked anywhere else.
And once it's obvious things are getting out of hand, it's probably too late.
Britain is not so different from the rest of the world. Until the country takes extreme measures at social distancing, the number of cases will keep on growing exponentially.
Don’t believe it?
Look at this comparison with Germany.
(Analysis inspired by @henrikenderlein.)
Don’t believe it?
Look at this comparison with Germany.
(Analysis inspired by @henrikenderlein.)
2) Corona could overwhelm the NHS
Like the UK, many countries at first trusted their medical system to be capable of meeting the onslaught of demand for critical care.
But though the NHS is amazing at many things, it has simply never had to deal with a comparable challenge.
Like the UK, many countries at first trusted their medical system to be capable of meeting the onslaught of demand for critical care.
But though the NHS is amazing at many things, it has simply never had to deal with a comparable challenge.
The numbers say it all:
UK population: 66 million
Brits likely to get infected: 60-70%
Infected patients who may require intense medical care: up to 20%
👉 The NHS could need to treat ~NINE MILLION people.
It currently has ~4,000 critical care beds. They’re at 80-90% capacity.
UK population: 66 million
Brits likely to get infected: 60-70%
Infected patients who may require intense medical care: up to 20%
👉 The NHS could need to treat ~NINE MILLION people.
It currently has ~4,000 critical care beds. They’re at 80-90% capacity.
The problem with a disease that spreads exponentially is that every day can dramatically increase peak demand for medical care.
On one model, enacting social distancing one day later increases the number of infections by 40%.
The time to act is now.
On one model, enacting social distancing one day later increases the number of infections by 40%.
The time to act is now.
3) It’s not feasible to make sure only the young get sick
Why is the government keeping schools and offices open?
Apparently, it wants to ensure that a lot of younger people get sick first, making older people safe once Britain reaches herd immunity.
Why is the government keeping schools and offices open?
Apparently, it wants to ensure that a lot of younger people get sick first, making older people safe once Britain reaches herd immunity.
There are a few glaring problems with this cunning plan:
Will old people really go months without seeing their grandkids…
…or their children who are in daily touch with those grandkids…
…especially when the government is telling people not to panic?
Unlikely.
Will old people really go months without seeing their grandkids…
…or their children who are in daily touch with those grandkids…
…especially when the government is telling people not to panic?
Unlikely.
Younger people may also prove more vulnerable to corona than we'd like.
This is obviously true of the sick and immunocompromised. But every day, corona also brings more healthy, young people to Italian ICUs.
If the NHS crumbles, the young could die at non-negligible rates.
This is obviously true of the sick and immunocompromised. But every day, corona also brings more healthy, young people to Italian ICUs.
If the NHS crumbles, the young could die at non-negligible rates.
Finally, initial studies from Hong Kong suggest that, in some cases, corona might have a seriously adverse impact on long-term health even for those who do recover from it.
“They gasp if they walk a bit more quickly,” one expert said.
businessinsider.com/coronavirus-re…
“They gasp if they walk a bit more quickly,” one expert said.
businessinsider.com/coronavirus-re…
4) The death toll will be massive
Let’s take some comparatively optimistic estimates made by experts:
UK Population: 66 million
Infection rate: 60%
Fatality rate: 1%
Deaths due to corona: 396,000.
Let’s take some comparatively optimistic estimates made by experts:
UK Population: 66 million
Infection rate: 60%
Fatality rate: 1%
Deaths due to corona: 396,000.
396,000 deaths is not the risk the government runs if its cunning plan fails; it IS the plan.
Let that sink in.
And then bear two further things in mind:
• The fatality rate could turn out to be much higher…
• …especially if the NHS gets overwhelmed.
Let that sink in.
And then bear two further things in mind:
• The fatality rate could turn out to be much higher…
• …especially if the NHS gets overwhelmed.
But, you ask, isn’t the spread of corona inevitable at this point?
Perhaps. But playing for time can still make a massive difference:
• It reduces the risk of overburdening the NHS
• It buys time for scientists to develop a vaccine or antiviral drugs
Perhaps. But playing for time can still make a massive difference:
• It reduces the risk of overburdening the NHS
• It buys time for scientists to develop a vaccine or antiviral drugs
5) The government’s plan is based on an unproven assumption
The assumption behind the government’s cunning plan is that people who recover from corona will be immune.
But will they be?
Hopefully so. But the experts just don’t know for sure.
The assumption behind the government’s cunning plan is that people who recover from corona will be immune.
But will they be?
Hopefully so. But the experts just don’t know for sure.
Some experts say that recovering from the corona virus once will make you immune. Other experts believe that it won’t.
Who’s right? 🤷♂️.
And yet, the British government is gambling with lives on the assumption that its bet will turn out right.
independent.co.uk/life-style/hea…
Who’s right? 🤷♂️.
And yet, the British government is gambling with lives on the assumption that its bet will turn out right.
independent.co.uk/life-style/hea…
A final point:
A lot of the press and some of my friends have been saying: But Boris Johnson is following expert advice!
Well, he’s following the advice of *a few* experts. But as any non-expert can see, that advice is clashing with the advice of A LOT of other experts.
A lot of the press and some of my friends have been saying: But Boris Johnson is following expert advice!
Well, he’s following the advice of *a few* experts. But as any non-expert can see, that advice is clashing with the advice of A LOT of other experts.
After Johnson announced his cunning plan, the current Director of the WHO said:
“The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous.”
“The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous.”
Anthony Costello, Director of the Institute for Global Health at the University of London and a former senior official at the WHO, was also unconvinced.
As was Roy Anderson, a Professor of Epidemiology at Imperial College.
As was Roy Anderson, a Professor of Epidemiology at Imperial College.
And, you know, all the governments that are now scrambling to increase social distancing presumably have their own experts who are telling them to do this as quickly as humanly possible.
I mean, the consensus on this is so strong that even Donald Trump is starting to follow it!
I mean, the consensus on this is so strong that even Donald Trump is starting to follow it!
I dearly hope I'm wrong about how misguided the British strategy is.
I dearly hope we are all wrong about what we'll be facing very soon.
But it's time for the British public to think for themselves, not to blithely entrust their lives in Boris Johnson's cunning plan.
[End]
I dearly hope we are all wrong about what we'll be facing very soon.
But it's time for the British public to think for themselves, not to blithely entrust their lives in Boris Johnson's cunning plan.
[End]
A new paper suggests that drugs commonly prescribed for hypertension could make their users more likely to succumb to corona.
Is that true? I've no idea.
But these kinds of discoveries are a key reason why slowing corona's spread could save many lives.
journals.lww.com/jhypertension/…
Is that true? I've no idea.
But these kinds of discoveries are a key reason why slowing corona's spread could save many lives.
journals.lww.com/jhypertension/…
Professor at Harvard School of Public Health on the UK:
"Your house is on fire. The people whom you have trusted with your care ... have inexplicably chosen to encourage the flames in the misguided notion that somehow they will be able to control them."
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
"Your house is on fire. The people whom you have trusted with your care ... have inexplicably chosen to encourage the flames in the misguided notion that somehow they will be able to control them."
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
