You may be confused as to why the UK government seems not to be taking action regarding the current covid pandemic. In this video, Prof. Chris Whitty - the chief medical officer - explains the strategy and the science behind. A thread.
1) the CMO believes that the mortality rate for the disease is not higher than 1% and that 1% is probably the top estimate of the mortality.
2) the UK Government works on a line where they expect at least 20% of the population to become infected; the reasonable worst-case scenario is 80%, which is the theoretical maximum. The working hypothesis is somewhere in the middle.
The UK will act through four measures, which will all happen at the same time but with different "ratio" according to the current need: contain, delay, research, mitigate. We are now at the transition between "contain" and "delay".
Social containment actions (i.e. the "mitigate" phase) will be postponed as much as possible in order not to interfere with people's life and the economy. These are the actions Italy and other EU countries have decided to take.
Some mitigating actions (such as closing schools) have low efficacy and may not be considered at all. If school closure does happen it's because HMG wants to show they are doing something but the CMO believes that, unlike flu, school closure would be highly unimportant
The CMO believes China's infection rates may as well come up again after China releases the brake. (My feeling is that this point is critical to understanding the strategy).
What the UK does NOT want is to apply mitigating measures that have an impact on society and the economy only to then discover the virus is coming back as soon as their measures are released. Instead, they are interested in letting the virus go through its course, albeit slowly
(note: this is, in a way, what BoJo meant when he said we should take it on the chin)
It will take at least 18 months to see a vaccine. More interest should be placed on the repurposing of old or currently approved drugs.
One of the most efficient measures from the models is to isolate elderly people from the virus. This also means isolating the same people from society which has a cost in terms of mental health. To reduce this latter damage, we will delay isolation measures as long as possible.
The entire procedure will not look like a 100m race but rather like a marathon which is why the last stage, mitigations, should start as late as possible
What does it all mean (IMO)? 1) There is a very important difference between what the UK plans to do and what Italy or China have decided to do. The UK will be treating this as a flu and let it run through in one wave.
What they want to avoid, is to introduce very severe social actions only to see the infection come back again as soon as those actions are released. The WHO recommends against adopting the UK procedure and invites to take China and South Korea as examples to follow.
Mike Ryan, of WHO, today clearly advised stopping approaching this like the flu: the flu can NOT be controlled. China and S. Korea have demonstrated that COVID-19 CAN be controlled.
Obviously, both sides are taking a gamble.
Obviously, both sides are taking a gamble.
2) A great deal of UK planning relies on information we got from China. There is the possibility this information is not correct because the demographic is different.
3) The British approach seems to be very dry and pragmatic (we can speculate why this is so but it would be just speculation). This may not necessarily go down easily with the public unless their gamble pays off.
In short, it will all depend on what will happen to places like China, Italy or South Korea. Will they be able to truly contain the infection or will it come back in April or May?
