Many people have been sharing images like this one.
It's a great message. By delaying the epidemic, and spreading it out over time, we decrease the degree to which health services are overloaded. Excellent. #FlattenTheCurve
However, what is that "healthcare system capacity"?
It's a great message. By delaying the epidemic, and spreading it out over time, we decrease the degree to which health services are overloaded. Excellent. #FlattenTheCurve
However, what is that "healthcare system capacity"?
Angela Merkel said 60-70% of the German population might ultimately be infected. With delay, some have suggested the peak period might last 2-3 months.
Let's estimate that 50% of all cases occur during a 3-month peak period.
Let's estimate that 50% of all cases occur during a 3-month peak period.
China's experience has been that ~20% of cases become serious and need hospital care, and often for several weeks. (Right now, Italy has placed 65% of their confirmed cases in the hospital.)
Let's say the typical serious case needs a hospital bed for 2 weeks.
Let's say the typical serious case needs a hospital bed for 2 weeks.
So roughly how many hospital beds are needed during the delayed peak?
65% of population * 50% of cases during peak * 20% severe * (2 weeks) / (3 month peak) = 1% of the population
That's a rough need of 1 additional hospital bed for every 100 citizens.
65% of population * 50% of cases during peak * 20% severe * (2 weeks) / (3 month peak) = 1% of the population
That's a rough need of 1 additional hospital bed for every 100 citizens.
Only Japan and South Korea have more than one hospital bed per 100 people. Most wealthy countries have between 0.2 and 0.6 beds per 100 people.
And of course, at any given time, most of those beds are already occupied.
And of course, at any given time, most of those beds are already occupied.
Hopefully, as we learn more, we can reduce these potential impacts.
However, if we can't do more to change the course of this outbreak, then even with delay, we could still need to deploy a huge emergency expansion of hospital resources by perhaps 2-5 times current capacity. 😰
However, if we can't do more to change the course of this outbreak, then even with delay, we could still need to deploy a huge emergency expansion of hospital resources by perhaps 2-5 times current capacity. 😰
Incidentally, @alxrdk's version of the #FlattenTheCurve graphic shows this explicitly.
The epidemic preparations aren't just about flattening the curve, but they should also include using that time to increase healthcare capacity.
The epidemic preparations aren't just about flattening the curve, but they should also include using that time to increase healthcare capacity.
