Updated odds of catching COVID-19:
Mar 1-in-4600
Apr 1-in-140
May 1-in-5
Jun 1-in-2
Jul 1-in-12
Aug 1-in-150
Assumes continue current trajectory, without radical interventions.
Hopefully this gives context to Govt comments about timing interventions right.
Mar 1-in-4600
Apr 1-in-140
May 1-in-5
Jun 1-in-2
Jul 1-in-12
Aug 1-in-150
Assumes continue current trajectory, without radical interventions.
Hopefully this gives context to Govt comments about timing interventions right.
As will be clear from comparison to last week 👇 the virus is spreading more quickly than forecast.
My estimate of the total number infected in 2020 is stable, four out of five will get it. Precisely timing the peak is harder tho, as I noted at the time.
My estimate of the total number infected in 2020 is stable, four out of five will get it. Precisely timing the peak is harder tho, as I noted at the time.
The model I’ve used here is far from perfect. It doesn’t allow for variation in population density, seasonality and various other factors. Nonetheless it seems to be reconciling well with reported numbers, statements from government and view of experts in other fields.
Ultimately though I think and hope that this forecast will be very wrong. A well timed intervention could drastically alter the trajectory of the virus as we have seen in China, S Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong.
We need to #FlattenTheCurve
We need to #FlattenTheCurve
For those asking about a model or the impact of interventions to slow the spread, here are details of a very simple but quite effective model in the public domain (not what I’ve used but can replicate fairly closely).
I encountered some skepticism and criticism last week. I appreciate that exponential growth was harder to believe back then. So far today people have been kinder (thank you) but this thread has become quite visible so I’ve done a little “about me” thread.
